Coraggio Consulting
City of Fairfax School Board Regular Meeting, Monday, May 5, 2025

Date: Monday, May 5, 2025
Place: City Hall, City of Fairfax, Virginia
Length: 8h 00m (video)
Official meeting video (city, Granicus): https://fairfax.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=13&clip_id=4180
Agenda: https://fairfax.granicus.com/AgendaViewer.php?view_id=13&clip_id=4180
Minutes: https://fairfax.granicus.com/MinutesViewer.php?view_id=13&clip_id=4180&doc_id=b215cac0-4952-11f1-9b4d-005056a89546

Machine transcript (speech-to-text) produced by Coraggio Consulting. Not an official county record. Names and numbers may be misspelled; check the video at the timestamp before quoting.
Speech-to-text: whisper.cpp, model large-v3-turbo. Produced 2026-10-13. Timestamps are [HH:MM:SS] into the meeting video.

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[00:02:15] good evening ladies and gentlemen it is monday may 5th of 2025 and this is the regular session of the city of fairfax school board please stand for the pledge of allegiance the united states of america and to the republic for which it stands one nation under god indivisible with liberty and justice for all um i'd like to begin by welcoming uh principals dr a from uh fairfax high school

[00:02:50] and mr smith from katherine johnson and we have uh miss anderson from fairfax high school and miss kay walters from fairfax high school uh i thought i saw as council member stacy hall is also here and um i'd also like to welcome mr martinez from the city okay um there are no changes for our agenda this evening but we do have one announcement um mr plattenberg madam chair thank you and what a beautiful evening it is to have everybody here this is generally one of the most enjoyable times we have by having our whole community coming together and the elected officials and also our city partners and so on and our great

[00:03:30] principals this evening after serving for the public for 40 years I'm announcing this evening my retirement as superintendent of City of Fairfax schools this decision comes with deep reflection and immense pride while there's always more work to be done I'm profoundly proud of the fact that we what we've accomplished together during my time here in the city of Fairfax. We've expanded our instructional programs to meet the needs of today's students in tomorrow's workforce, including laying the groundwork for future electrical CTE program at Fairfax High School, adding a secondary transitional counselor at

[00:04:07] Katherine Johnson Middle School, and providing a behavioral instructional teacher supporting both Daniel's Run and Providence Elementary School. Our partnership with George Mason University grew stronger than ever before. We now offer early accept action acceptance for our Fairfax high school students mentorships from student-athletes teacher cadet placements and candidate placements and tutoring programs that enrich the learning and strengthening bonds between our institutions we've taken bold steps to assess the condition of our facilities becoming a regional leader and using that data to guide a long-term strategy for our capital needs this is culminated in the successful

[00:04:46] passage of our bond referendum that will transform our elementary schools ensuring that they're safe modern and inspiring spaces for the students staff and the community as a whole we've tackled long overdue capital projects such as the Fairfax high school band practice field the baseball stadium and dugouts the concession stand the auditorium sound system field house concessions renovations installation of EV stations and safety upgrades including the ADA accommodations and the replacement of a condemned press box Improvements also extend to our elementary and middle schools, demonstrating our commitment to all grade levels. School safety remained a top priority. For

[00:05:26] the first time ever, we placed security specialist personnel in our elementary schools. We expanded the interior and exterior camera coverage, we added a security vestibule at our middle school, and increased security staffing at the high school. Future vestibules for our elementary schools are already planned and on the way. Perhaps what I cherish most is the collaborative spirit we've cultivated. Now with the city of Fairfax, our police department, the fire, parks and recreation, public works, and the city administrative teams, our relationships I believe are a true foundation of great schools and I'm most proud of the culture and the teamwork we've created. As I said I'm

[00:06:03] beaming with pride over the opportunity to help hire three of four of our incredible principals and work alongside such a dedicated team as Barb King, Carrie Dorsey, and Dan Phillips whose devotion to our students is really unmatched. I'm grateful as well to JC Martinez, who's thank you for being here, Mr. Martinez, in the audience, who's an incredible chief financial officer for the city of Fairfax, and all the city employees whose steadfast support has made our mission possible. The city of Fairfax is incredibly fortunate to have such a committed group of individuals serving its children and its families. While there's still work ahead,

[00:06:42] as I mentioned at the beginning, I leave knowing that the district is well positioned for continued success, ready for the next leader to build on this strong foundation. My last day of service will be July 31st. And as I close this chapter, I leave you with a quote that really serves as a North Star for our future leaders who will be coming in to serve and be part of this great city of Fairfax. And it's by Mahatma Gandhi. And it's the best way to find yourself is to lose yourself in the service of others. So thank you, Madam Chair. Thank you for the honor of serving this community it's been a pleasure and I thank you very much for giving me the

[00:07:20] time this evening to express that to the community and thank you all so very much students I can't thank you enough for keeping me alive and young and really spicy so thank you so much thank you mr. Platenberg and while you'll be around for a few more months I just want to take this time publicly to thank you for your service to this board and the board before that and the one before

[00:07:46] that thank you okay our first item is the adoption of our agenda may have a motion please madam chair miss Kelsey I move that the city of Fairfax school board adopt the agenda as written and distributed may have a second okay miss Kelsey has moved miss Hickman has seconded all those in favor signify by saying aye aye aye none opposed motion adoption of the agenda passes

[00:08:24] unanimously. Next, we will move on to student recognition. At this point, I'm going to turn it over to Mr. Phillips. Thank you, Chair Pitches. And I also welcome everyone to our meeting this evening, where we'll look to celebrate the success of so many of our students. In just a moment, I'll call the names of students who've won state or national level awards this winter and spring.

[00:08:52] If you're with us in person tonight and you hear your name called, please come to the front of the room with us we'll give you a certificate to recognize your accomplishment and we'll take a photo together if you're listening at home or perhaps you've received a state honor in the last two weeks don't worry we'll send your certificate to school for you we congratulate all of the students in our schools who are recognized publicly for your efforts and at all levels and we celebrate all of your sex successes this year and also if you are a coach or a teacher sponsor or an administrator of any of the students who come up you're welcome to come up and be in the picture with us this evening and so with that I'll jump right in

[00:09:28] and as the board is moving down for the photos we'll start this evening by recognizing students from Katherine Johnson Middle School the following students were all gold medal winners in the

[00:09:55] Virginia State Science Olympiad and we congratulate Brandon Kim Mae Stone Rhea Prabhu Nicholas Maloney and Amu Rajiv.

[00:10:42] Congratulations, folks.

[00:11:08] All right, so congratulations to you, and again, thanks to your coaches and sponsors. Next, we're going to recognize some students from Fairfax High School. We're going to start with our athletic state-level winners. Again, coaches, administrators, and sponsors are welcome to join us for the photos.

[00:11:25] So first, we're going to invite our two wrestling state champions down. Can we invite down Cross Cassidy and Harry Maltese? And we invite Coach Leo to join...

[00:11:41] to join in them.

[00:12:25] Congratulations. Dr. A, if you wanna stay up for a minute, you certainly are welcome to.

[00:12:45] Next up, we recognize Sadie Buckley. Sadie is the swimming state champion for the state of Virginia. Is Sadie with us this evening? Yeah, we'll certainly get Sadie her certificate and anyone else we missed tonight.

[00:13:01] And next, I'm gonna invite up Kaya Bodewein, Sawyer Anderson, and Lila Seifert. And these ladies are all on our first team all-state field hockey team.

[00:13:12] Congratulations, folks.

[00:13:55] Also, we welcome up Kalen Park. Kalen is the first team All-State Golf representative from Fairfax High School. Congratulations, Kalen.

[00:14:05] Excellent.

[00:14:37] Congratulations. Congratulations. All right. Next up, we're going to recognize members of the Fairfax High School DECA team. The following students were top seven finalists, which makes them state winners, in the state DECA competition.

[00:14:56] And they also went on to compete in the national competition. So we welcome and congratulate Uma Silovic, I'm sorry, Silovic, Kiran Ashok, Advik Atom,

[00:15:15] Achaom, Megan Barrett, Sophia Kangow, Rohan Desai, Ellen Duong Mangi, Isabel Hui, Jason

[00:15:52] Ohm, Julie Jakes, Lincoln Jeffress, Nari Kim, Irene Kim, Ellen Kim, Matthew Lush, Anna

[00:16:32] Mahloud, Sean Miles, Samantha Murphy, Hari Patel, Eleanor Suh, Vera Truvan, William Vu,

[00:17:11] Nathan Yoon, and Nikon Salfgari. And that's quite a representation for the DECA competition.

[00:17:27] Congratulations to all of you. Yes, please. Coaches and sponsors, come up too, please. Big congratulations to you too. Thank you so much.

[00:17:53] Congratulations, folks.

[00:18:14] All right. Again, congratulations to all of you. We now recognize our students who achieved at the National Merit Scholarship level academically. The following students first qualified through the PSAT as semifinalists, and then they met further requirements by submitting their high school transcripts and other additional information, and they're now National Merit Scholarship finalists.

[00:18:41] And folks, when I call these, when you all come up in a second, I've also got a corrected certificate from our December award, so you're actually going to get two tonight. But let me call you up first, Ellie Russell. Ellie, please join us. Ty Stone and Ethan Gertz.

[00:19:12] All right, we certainly congratulate you and let's get a photo. All right. Yeah, one more. Yep, yep.

[00:19:45] And then this year we also recognize one student who is a National Merit Scholarship winner. The student competed in the selection process and was selected to receive a National Merit Scholarship, earning the title of Merit Scholar.

[00:19:57] we congratulate Shuba Udipi right folks thank you so much we congratulate all of these students for

[00:20:35] their efforts and their achievement and we also send a big congratulations to their families teachers coaches and everyone else in their lives who support them we're very fortunate to have all of you in our school community thank you we'll take a five-minute recess so if anyone wants to

[00:21:00] leave okay welcome back the next item our presentations to the school board and

[00:26:56] we'll start with citizen participation we have one citizen who is signed up miss Laurie Travis I don't believe miss Travis is not nobody it did not is not here okay um then we will move on to our next presentation which is the update on future development in the state city and we have uh mr eric foreman here from the planning division

[00:27:26] welcome mr foreman to come here uh to share development and enrollment information with the school board and it's an interesting year as well on both accounts as far as development and membership. Once again, I know I say this every year, but we are just so fortunate here in Fairfax City to be able to do this because this kind of information is made possible just

[00:28:05] by a great level of cooperation, cooperation from our superintendent and our city hall staff between city of Fairfax schools and between FCPS. FCPS is where all the raw data comes from. And the reason that this kind of analysis can be done at all is really due to interest from our school board members to try to understand, to try to plan for future development and future enrollment trends.

[00:28:35] So tonight's presentation is really in three parts. First, we'll go over a general overview of some of this year's membership information. Then we'll look at student generation rates from different types of housing units in the city. And that's really the meat of the presentation.

[00:28:53] And after that, we'll take a look at the new residential development that's either under construction or that's planned in the city and also in portions of Fairfax County that are within our school's boundaries. Right here in the city, we're experiencing pretty rapid growth right now due to new residential developments.

[00:29:15] All of those new projects could influence school enrollment in the coming years, so we'll take a look at that. Now, the second part, the meat of the matter, the student generation rates, this is particularly interesting. This is something that's really made possible by that cooperation that I had mentioned.

[00:29:35] We're able to examine this topic in a lot more detail than most school systems are able to. And essentially, that enables us to estimate potential enrollment from new development in a rather precise way.

[00:29:52] And all of that helps the school board, helps the superintendent figure out how potential development may impact our future needs. And it also serves as an ingredient to the fiscal impact estimates that city staff conducts for major development projects.

[00:30:10] And the city looks at estimated revenues and estimated costs from proposed development. And school enrollment is one of the most significant expenditures on the residential side. So this is an important aspect in city operations. And it's particularly important now because we're just seeing so much new development.

[00:30:29] So just since 2020, which was just five years ago, the city's seen about 2,000 housing units either get built or get approved and get approved by city council. And that's an increase of about 20% in just a few years. And of course, our big question here is how that might affect school enrollment. So we're pleased to be able to delve into that topic with a good amount of detail.

[00:30:57] One thing that we're not doing tonight, we're not duplicating the work that FCPS already does as far as projecting future membership at schools. FCPS does this as part of the CIP process in five-year increments. Our work here really supplements those projections as opposed to redoing them.

[00:31:18] So we'll glance at those projections as well tonight for city schools, but our main focus is really on new development and also the localized conditions just within our little city. So with that as a bit of an introduction, we can get started. And we can look at our current year enrollment numbers.

[00:31:39] Now, the chart down here at the bottom, this represents September's enrollment in our four city schools. And in the next few slides, we'll take a look at how that's changed over the previous years. But what's also relevant for us is this split that you see in the pie charts, the split between city and county residents.

[00:32:01] And for each of the schools, this is broken down to city residents in blue, county residents in red. Fairfax High School, up here on the left, the big pie chart, right now, as of this year, 37% of Fairfax High School students are city residents.

[00:32:18] And this is actually a few percentage points lower than where it had been a few years ago. For the second year in a row, we actually lost city students at the high school and Gaines County students. Now, it's not exactly clear what's behind this, whether it's something to do with age cohorts, which could very well be the case, or whether it's something that's longer term.

[00:32:42] The city's percentage of this, of city residents at the high school, had been about 40 to 42 percent for several years, about a six-year period. So on one hand, this does seem like a big change over two years. But then again, if you look a little bit farther back, about 10 years ago, this figure was also about 37% or so. So it's not completely out of the ordinary. It was in about the 38% range, I think, in the middle of the last decade. Just something we'll be keeping an eye on

[00:33:16] very well could just be age cohorts cycling through the schools. Now, the middle school, Katherine Johnson, has moved in the other direction over the past year. So over this past year, Katherine Johnson has gained membership from the city, so this percentage, 39%, is actually a few percentage points more than it was just a few years ago. And this really points to general stability in the future with Fairfax High School, because these two grades at the middle school will

[00:33:50] age into the high school, and that percentage will probably stay about the same at the high school level for the next little while. We'll see next year how correct that is. If it's wrong, I'll forget about that, but chances are it'll be relatively stable. At the elementary schools, you see them on the right here. These proportions have stayed relatively steady this year. Providence about 68 percent. Daniel's run at 97 percent. These are both within a percentage point or so

[00:34:22] where they were last year. So again, at the bottom here is our current year total enrollment. And this really becomes more interesting when we look at how it relates to program capacity. So when it comes to our city school capacity, we have really had a roller coaster ride over the last few years. Before COVID, our schools looked awfully close to a capacity problem. And then that eased a bit, and it eased both with a scaling back of membership and also in calculating

[00:34:58] the program capacity. But our membership is increasing again, and with it comes concerns about capacity problems. The biggest roller coaster has been Providence. So Providence was at capacity back in 2019, and membership then had decreased. So last year was about 33 students short of where it was in 2019, and 2019 is a significant year because that's the last pre-COVID

[00:35:29] year, so it's a good benchmark. This year, we saw a Providence membership increase by 63 students, And we're now at 97% capacity. Two years ago, we were saying, you know what, we had an enrollment crisis at Providence, and that's gone.

[00:35:49] We don't have to worry about it. And then this happened. And we'll look at the enrollment charts. It's hard to explain why membership increased so much over the past year. Of all of Fairfax, all of FCPS elementary schools, Providence was one of the top gainers of students over the past year. It looks like there was a lot of membership increase from rental apartment complexes, so not just from Scout on the Circle, which is brand new, but also from a lot of the rental complexes that are in the Providence area. It's something,

[00:36:30] rental apartments tend to be very jumpy as far as enrollment. Sometimes we see a lot more students, sometimes a lot less because of the transient population, and I think this year we just had a big increase across the board in rental complexes in this one portion of the city. So membership at all of our schools has increased this year, and all of our schools have actually increased since 2019, and at this point that wiggle room that we thought we have is really gone. So the program Program capacity, of course, is calculated by FCPS staff.

[00:37:10] These figures come right from the CIP. But you can see here in this right-hand column how close our schools are to the full capacity right now. So three of our schools are just within a few percentage points of 100% capacity.

[00:37:26] Katherine Johnson is a few percentage points over capacity. It says 37 students. about 103% or 3% over program capacity. So we'll take a look at capacity trends in two slides from now, but first we'll look at membership, both past and projections. So here we see a few things. So these dark lines, there's four charts here, or three charts with four schools. The dark lines represent past membership and also represent future projections from FCPS at each of the schools.

[00:38:05] That big dot in the center represents the current year. So that big dot are the numbers that were on the previous slide. Everything to the left of the big dot is past enrollment. So that is actually what has happened. The dark lines to the right of the big dots, those are the projections from FCPS from this year. Now, those light-colored lines, if you follow the green arrows, you'll see them.

[00:38:36] These are really the most interesting. So these show the projections that FCPS made last year, and we can see how they differ from the actual numbers, and there are some significant changes. Last year, so if we look in that top left chart that shows the two elementary schools, Last year's projections from FCPS anticipated that over a five-year period that Daniel's run and Providence would wind up having pretty similar membership. You can't see the light line from Daniel's run because it's basically just underneath the dark line, but it's there.

[00:39:13] But you can see that pink line from Providence go down. What happened instead is that enrollment this year, instead of going down, it went up. And that's the jump that I had just mentioned. So FCPS thinks that that will lead to sustained elevated enrollment over the next several years, and that's why that projection now tends to be much higher than it was thought of just a year ago.

[00:39:42] Now, down at the middle school in the lower left, we see that those out-year projections are now higher than they were last year. I suspect that that has to do a lot with the enrollment at Katherine Johnson's feeder.

[00:39:58] So Providence and some of the other schools that have seen enrollment increase, that's going to transfer into the middle school. At the high school level, we also see a higher projection than what was forecast last year. Again, these are all FCPS projections.

[00:40:14] These are largely done by extrapolating grade cohort sizes. So accounting for the increase in enrollment and also for new development that FCPS knows about right now, it's an extremely complex task.

[00:40:32] And, you know, we're in an era right now of a lot of volatility on the demographic side, so that makes it even more difficult. So I'm not saying anything bad about FCPS for not being on target here. I can tell you that I'm glad I report these instead of make them, because this is not an easy thing to do.

[00:40:51] But this shows you two things. It really shows that volatility, and it shows what is likely an increase in membership than what we had thought about relatively recently. So here's the capacity trends that I had mentioned.

[00:41:08] so this shows the last five years of program capacity utilization for our schools and also the next five years of projections. Past program capacity is on the left, projected is on the right, our current year is right there in the middle, and we see here that Fairfax High School, Katherine Johnson, are expected to exceed that 100% capacity level over the next few years.

[00:41:37] Now, our elementary schools are projected to be below capacity as you see there over the five-year mark. Those out-year projections are really kind of fuzzy, but right now it's projected that elementary school membership in general will drop in the later part of this decade.

[00:41:57] I think that's the result of lower birth rates and also out-migration people leaving northern Virginia for other parts of the country. So those two trends tend to make people think that elementary school enrollment in general will decrease in this area, and I think that's the reason for those out-year trends.

[00:42:18] But this is what FCPS is projecting right now, and I've got one more enrollment slide. We'll zoom out in scope. For this one, this is FCPS enrollment changes by school level since 2019.

[00:42:33] Again, 2019 was just that really significant year for looking at this kind of material. So this shows total enrollment by elementary school, middle school, and high school level. Shows it as a proportion of 2019 enrollment.

[00:42:51] And what we see here is a general decline in elementary and middle school membership. Still has not reached the point of where it was pre-COVID. There's no solid reason why. there could be a few reasons why. No one quite knows. The first thing, of course, that pops into your mind when you look at this is we just talked about how we're gaining enrollment. And then we look at this chart that says that enrollment is dropping. So this is obviously across the whole FCPS system here in Fairfax City and other parts of the system are seeing the opposite trend. But

[00:43:25] in general, there has been less enrollment now than there has five, six, or seven years ago. so uh that is the end of that part one i figure it's a good point to pause uh see if there's any questions on this before we move on to student generation okay um mr formant just uh will this presentation be shared with council i i certainly can share it with council i'm a little disappointed i was hoping that with all the discussion around the tuition bill that we would have a couple people

[00:44:03] from council so they can see the effect that the development that they approve has on our schools so if if this presentation can be shared with the city council I would really appreciate that because while I'm you know I we look at all the this enrollment these predictions and projections we all know that a lot of the development that is just being built will in these out years

[00:44:39] be four or five years old and the older it gets we tend to yield more kids the boundary study with a county could affect three of our schools so I'm sure you would agree that this is you know we're kind of in a strange place to try to predict what it's going to look like in the next four to five years. Okay, Ms. Bartlemy, do you have any questions or comments? I was curious about the program capacity. Is that based on

[00:45:16] the building size or staffing or a combination of both? And if so, does that get adjusted as Fairfax and Katherine Johnson are going above capacity? It's based on all of those things and more so it's a complex set of it it's on it it's the building itself and how many students the building can hold with the current programs that are offered in the building so it's based on square footage it's also based on directives from the state as far as how many students per class

[00:45:54] per grade level which changes per grade level and also some complex things about what square footage counts as classroom space and which does not that changes some sometimes over time program capacity can actually move independently of membership so sometimes you can have a membership that's static and the program capacity can go up or can go down due to state calculations so in addition to that the building capacity is what the building is physically built at at the time it's constructed. The program capacity is what programs are within the facility at any given time. So if

[00:46:33] you have some programs that require additional space, square footage per student, some of the high needs children's spaces, it can adversely impact your enrollment capacity. Thank you. One of the things that we saw in 2021, I believe, was some changes in state guidance towards program capacity and I think the number of students per elementary school classroom went up and that had the effect of generating more for program capacity so that was part of the issue

[00:47:10] where we saw our program capacity utilization go down pretty significantly Mr. Plottenberg also if a school is title one I know that generally the lower grades k through three or k through two have lower class size so a title one school might have a different program capacity than a non-title one totally exactly madam chair okay miss Kelsey I'm debating which question ask you on the enrollment with because you said that at the high

[00:47:49] school we lost city kids and at the middle school we've gained them are we basically when we are our numbers going up because like our capacity is getting closer to program capacity because of more of city school kids or more of county kids is what is making us get closer at the high school this year it's been county kids okay but i i wouldn't be confident enough to say that over the long term that that that would be the case

[00:48:25] i guess my question too is like is our county numbers going up from where they were last year as well as? County numbers have gone up this year. I'd say overall they went up a little bit, but not very much. Elementary schools, roughly the same. Middle school city enrollment went up a little bit. High school county enrollment went up probably enough to compensate for all of the others. But again, it's not resounding enough to say, and there's no single cause for it.

[00:49:02] If there was something like a new development that a lot of new students came from, it would be easier to point the finger to that, but it seems somewhat natural right now. And then on your five-year enrollment trends, why does Katherine Johnson's trend go down in 25, 26, like more 26, when Providence is going up, the high school is going up, and Daniel's run is basically staying about the same?

[00:49:30] Why are they dropping? I think the middle school is more susceptible to that because it's just two grades. So you have the grade, the cohorts coming from each of the feeders. And it's not unusual for one grade just randomly to be one, two classrooms or whatever smaller than the previous year.

[00:49:50] And that can make a big difference. Yeah, it was just because they were like almost steady increase. And then it's like they're going to end like, OK. That does happen every few years of the high school. there was one year we had a graduating class of almost 700 so we have these bubble years every i would say probably every five to seven years and you know it's you see it more as mr foreman said at the middle school because there's only two grade levels so if you have one particularly large graduating class or particularly small it'll affect it i guess more significantly because of the size.

[00:50:29] Ms. Hickman. Yes, I have two questions for you. So one, I know you briefly touched on the increase of 63 students at Providence. When we talked about it last fall, you said we didn't have the addresses yet or like a way to parse it out. Is that information available yet now that we got the ADM?

[00:50:48] Right, and that's part of the student generation analysis that I did, and that's why I think that a lot of that increase, I think part of it comes from the new apartment complex, the point at Fairfax, and the majority of the rest is from those rental apartment complexes, and we'll see.

[00:51:08] Will you touch on which rental? These are newer ones, right? Things that we're more recent about? No, these are the older ones. So the rental apartment complexes like around Germantown Road, for instance. Okay, so not new. Right. It's like Gainesboro Apartments and down by Oxford Mews, I think it's called.

[00:51:27] Now, the new ones did as well, but the older ones, and this is really citywide. It's not just Providence. Fairfax Square, which is Daniel's run, had a large increase this year, and hard to say why, but that's where a lot of that came from.

[00:51:46] And then I'm going to assume, but I don't want to assume incorrectly, that the projections coming from FCPS and their CIP do not include new construction, right? It's just what we have now because they're not privy to that same information. They do to an extent. So we provide FCPS, and Fairfax County does this as well, provides FCPS with approved new developments that are likely to come online within the next few years.

[00:52:15] so that that includes at fcps projections would include projects that are right now under construction for instance not approved and not okay right but that i guess okay i guess it goes to the same question though if we don't know why rental if there's more students in rentals then it might that's right yeah is so the the projections could be completely off just like we saw in the last year or two right okay thank you um mr foreman would could to piggyback on miss hickman's um comment and question so with the you know interest rates for mortgages and housing price prices going

[00:52:53] up do you think it would in my mind um speak to why we have you know a an increase in our rental like a rental apartment um and having student yields from from those buildings do you think that that's possibly part part of the I think that's part of it not so much you know with the issues that we're experiencing right now but I think over the last 10 or over the last 15 years that rental housing in general has just become more common for families with children in this

[00:53:30] area and I think that's why we're seeing more enrollment from types of housing units that we really didn't get much enrollment from 10 or 15 years ago. So these mid-rise apartment complexes or new townhouses, for instance, 20 years ago, very, very rare to get a whole lot of students from those kind of complexes. Now it's much more common. And I think that's a big part of the reason. People used to move out of apartments and townhouses and move into single family homes to

[00:54:03] have children. And now it's sort of gone a little bit in the reverse. Necessary. Thank you. Piggybacking off Ms. Hickman's question a little bit, just to clarify, again, the projections, we don't know if they're based on city development or development within our pyramid. Is that correct? Theoretically, they would be based on both. I can tell you what I give to FCPS, I give approved developments and an estimated year of occupancy. So those estimated years of occupancy. They're never right. They always seem to get delayed, but I get them and then I revise

[00:54:42] them the next year. I think Fairfax County does about the same type of thing. Okay. My second question, I noticed in slide five, we have projections that are over a hundred percent and looking at two that are over a hundred percent, which is KJ and Fairfax, given that it's about one-third maybe just about 40 percent of city students I'm assuming that likely that will stay at 100 percent because what I guess my assumption is that we tend to push back on prioritizing city students on those seats to ensure that we're not at over capacity is that

[00:55:21] is that correct okay just want to make sure I state that out loud so um thank you so much um uh I would just say that um just to clarify for anybody listening as you were speaking to how fcps comes up with their estimates their projections that so to clarify the city provides fcps with development information and we also receive their i am always on those emails when

[00:55:57] something's been approved over by flint hill or something that'll affect out any any development that affects our school they provide that information to you as well fair fairfax county yeah no fair fairfax county does not share that information with the city typically unless it's a case of a development being right on the city boundaries or or so so yeah so we that's what i'm saying like we receive any development information for right development county development that will impact one of our schools or two of our schools yes okay yes i just want

[00:56:36] to be clear that so there is an exchange between the city and the county right okay all right okay we can move on to your next section mr foreman okay so this next section is on uh student generation rates this is my favorite part of the projection because it or of the presentation because it's kind of interesting so student generation rates this masquerades under a few names could be called student yield ratio but whatever the the term is used this is is really the critical element in addressing impact from future development, and this is the number

[00:57:14] of enrolled students per housing unit. So in our case, the major ingredient here, this becomes a major ingredient of the fiscal impact analysis. So this is how we estimate how many students would come out of a projected development.

[00:57:34] So for right now, number of housing units in the city keeps growing, so we're at about 10,500 housing units now, so that's up from about 8,800 just a few years ago, 10 years ago, it was below 9,000.

[00:57:50] So overall, it's a high rate of growth. From those 10,500 housing units, we have what it says here, 2,985 students. That is up about 70 from last year. So still down from pre-COVID from 2019, but one interesting thing to note here, of those 2985 students, 93% of them attend one of our city schools, one of our four schools.

[00:58:21] The remainder attend non-city FCPS schools, and we'll get into some of the detail about that. But that's an important thing to keep in mind because that number was over 12 percent or so back in the middle of the last decade.

[00:58:39] And this is significant. It's decreased since then. We've seen small increases over the past two years, but still the difference from what it had been is really substantial. The big reason for this is the city-based level 4 AAP program.

[00:58:56] So a good number of families now opt to remain in city schools as opposed to enrolling in Mosaic Elementary for Level 4. So this change from 12% down to 7% or so, this accounts for about 160 students in terms of current enrollment.

[00:59:14] So this year, if we still had that 12% or so figure, we would have 160 fewer students enrolled in city schools. So it's significant from an enrollment perspective. So a little bit more detail on this, on those students who go to non-city schools.

[00:59:34] There's now just over about 200, 215, it says here, city students enrolled in non-city FCPS schools. Biggest chunk, about a quarter of that, is still the AAP program. So that's in blue in the pie chart.

[00:59:50] So Mosaic is our city's level four center school. Among the remainder of these transfers, so just over 40 students or so transfer for special education needs, so that's in the orange slice down there. About 30 students transfer to other schools for language immersion programs. That's in red. The Spanish program at Laurel Ridge is the most common from our school, so about half of those are enrolled at Laurel Ridge. We also have FCPS employee transfers. And those four situations right there account for about two-thirds of the

[01:00:29] transfers out of city schools. Now, we've got a specialty high school transfer, so IB program and Thomas Jefferson, and then a smaller number of transfers kind of at all grade levels for other reasons. But it's worth noting that this really goes both ways as well. We're looking at at this specifically of transfers out because of budgetary and space considerations but there are also transfers into the city as well so that all contributes to the pie charts earlier too so this

[01:01:06] is is what it looks like when analyzed by school level so we can see that at the elementary school level aap and language immersion really are the bulk of the transfer reasons at the high school level over on the right. We actually have more special ed transfers at the high school level this year than we have in the past few years. But here we see the specialized academic programs that we see IB and Thomas Jefferson as well. But you can see how this changes by school level.

[01:01:44] So getting back to the main issue, to overall student generation numbers, the main element to our work here, again, is to calculate student generation rates, and we do it for various housing unit types. So we arrange these types among housing units, or really among neighborhoods that share similar characteristics. On the left-hand side of the chart here, you see ratios for detached and townhouse neighborhoods, and you can see we split it out between established, what we call established, and contemporary, detached and established in contemporary townhouse neighborhoods.

[01:02:25] And by established, we mean those neighborhoods that were built, let's say, in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, and so on. What we see is after the mid-1980s or so, and this is true for detached and for townhouse units, a lot of the characteristics changed.

[01:02:44] The houses get bigger. The lots or the open space gets smaller. The price point is generally higher, so you have a much, it is a very stark change from the mid-1980s onward. And if we split those out in terms of student generation rate, we see, you know, a very different story.

[01:03:06] So what these numbers mean, if you look on the left, that detached established neighborhood. So these are neighborhoods like Mosby Woods, like Westmore, Fairview, and so on. That 383, the .383 number, means that from every 100 housing units of this type, we get 38.3 students.

[01:03:28] So this is typically how those yield ratios are explained. Now, we do it this way. We separate that established and contemporary out because when we're estimating future enrollment from new construction, It makes a big difference, and it helps to—we want to take a look at the kind of neighborhoods or the kind of comparables that are most similar to what's actually getting built, and that makes those projections a lot more accurate.

[01:03:59] So if you look at both detached and townhouse neighborhoods on the left, on the green and the blue there, you see that difference between those established, the older neighborhoods and the contemporary or the newer neighborhoods. that student yield ratio goes down when you're looking just at newer development.

[01:04:17] So that's important to keep in mind for that context. Now, multifamily is even more interesting. So these are the red bars on the right. So we have two kinds of multifamily, typically. We have garden style, which are the older 1960s, 70s type of units, and we have the new mid-rise type units.

[01:04:42] These tend to be five stories tall, have very minimal open space, and so on. Among those two, we have the difference between apartments and condominiums. And what we find is a very large difference, significant difference at all types and at all price points of enrollment from rental apartments and from condominiums.

[01:05:03] So we split out multifamily different than townhouse or detached, but again, the aim there is to isolate what would really be most important for figuring out that student generation rate. This is an example of the level of detail that's made possible by delving really deep into the data.

[01:05:23] This is a simple-looking chart, but my goodness, the stuff that goes behind this is rather complex. So this is an interesting chart for a lot of reasons. Now, I know there's folks who love data, and you have handouts that look like this.

[01:05:44] So this takes a look at our detached neighborhoods. And this is the big one that's on 11 by 17. And this takes a look at the student yield ratio for each detached neighborhood, The number of students, number of housing units, and that ratio.

[01:06:05] The dark green bars are those established neighborhoods. The light green bars are newer neighborhoods. And you can see that the right-hand side of the chart, which has the lower ratios, tend to be those newer neighborhoods.

[01:06:22] And you know what? Ten or so years ago, that really wasn't so much the case. We saw a number of those newer neighborhoods with higher generation rates, but we'll get to that. But townhouses, again, you see generally lower rates. You tend to see more enrollment from the older developments that were built in the 1960s and 1970s.

[01:06:45] But those newer developments really are not that far behind. And this is something that we had talked about when we first started doing this kind of work, that we thought that newer townhouse developments would see increased student generation, and that has in fact happened. So I won't go over all of these subdivisions. You're welcome to look it over as much as you would like, but this one is worth dwelling on a little bit. So

[01:07:16] this is the multifamily. That dark red, those are the garden-style apartment, rental apartment complexes. The light red or pink, however it shows up on your screen, are garden condos. So you can see that those condos tend to be less than the rental apartments. But the purple and lilac are particularly interesting. These are the newer developments. And you know what? Up here on the screen, it says that purple is mid-rise condos. Purple should be mid-rise apartments. So I apologize

[01:07:49] for that. But that dark purple are Scout on the Circle and the Point at Fairfax. Those light lilac ones that you see on the far right, that you can barely see those bars, those are the newer mid-rise condominiums. And you can see that the enrollment from those new condominiums is very, very low. So it's interesting stuff. I'd be glad to answer any detailed questions on this, but we'll move on to the next one. The next one's interesting as well. We've calculated all of this

[01:08:26] going back to 2011, which is quite a long time now, and that makes for an interesting chart. So these are those student generation rates from the same types of units that we saw in the previous charts. And this goes back to 2011, so you can see how they've changed. Now, the thickness of the line indicates the number of students that we have here in the city from each type of housing unit. So that thick green line at the top, those are the detached established neighborhoods. So that's the Mosby Woods, Country Club Hills, and so on. So you can see that the bulk of our students

[01:09:04] come from those single-family neighborhoods. So there's a few interesting things to note here. That big, thick line, the detached established, that has basically declined over the last 10 years. And that has been long enough where you can say that that is most certainly a trend.

[01:09:23] And it's important, again, because that's where most of our enrollment comes from. If we still had 2012 enrollment figures from those types of neighborhoods, we would be in a serious problem right now as far as capacity. So that has gone down, you know, gone down a little bit.

[01:09:41] It hasn't really crashed, but still we have so many of those units that that's made a significant impact on our membership. That dotted dark green line, and you can see on the left side of the screen that that is just about where that thick green line is.

[01:09:58] Those are the newer neighborhoods. So that's like Farcroft, Chancery Park, those newer detached neighborhoods. we have really seen an attendance drop-off or an enrollment drop-off from those kind of neighborhoods over the past decade or so.

[01:10:15] Hard to tell if that's natural or not. A lot of those developments were built in about 2000 or so. So the original owners that their children may have cycled through the school system, and that does happen with new developments after a while, so that's entirely possible.

[01:10:33] It's also possible that we're just seeing less enrollment either from smaller families or from private school enrollment. So it might be a combination of all of those, but again, we're seeing much less enrollment from those new neighborhoods than we have in the past.

[01:10:55] The line that says townhouse contemporary, which is the dotted yellow line, you can see that that's really gone up over the past decade or so. and that's what I had mentioned before. We had thought that would happen, and it has. But I think the most interesting thing here is that thin red line that you see at the bottom right. So that represents mid-rise apartments, and even though it's a new type of dwelling unit for our city, and even though these enrollment numbers overall are relatively small, it's very important because

[01:11:29] this type of housing unit represents almost all of the new growth that we're seeing. And so a lot of our efforts involving student yield ratios really focus on honing in on this.

[01:11:46] This is about 90 students this year. We have two complexes that fit this category, Scout on the Circle and Moxley. Combined, that's 90 units. So that is a significant number for us. so we will take them. It's huge. It's three and a half classrooms. It's like a whole school bus.

[01:12:06] Yeah, and these are 90 students that four years ago that number was zero, so worthwhile just to take a quick look at these two developments. These are the two new style apartments that are fully occupied right now. We have 53 students this year from Scout on the Circles. That's out of about 400 apartment units. That's actually on the lines of what we had expected a few years ago or 10 years ago or so when this was approved. It's actually a little bit more than what we had

[01:12:41] expected. What we did not expect was for those 53 students or so to come this quickly, because we really thought that there would be a much more gradual warm-up in enrollment than what we have seen, and that may have to do with what Chair Pitches had mentioned about changing housing preferences and whatnot. Definitely unexpected. The other complex of this type is the point at Fairfax. This is the place that used to be called the Moxley. Similar in size to Scout on the Circle,

[01:13:16] this is the first year that this has been fully occupied. It was partially occupied last year, and we have 37 students from this development again about the same amount of size and you know when we look at these at these apartments it's important for for this future planning for future facility planning uh you know and it's interesting to look at it is this 90 students a lot or little it's a lot because uh that number again was zero not too long ago uh on the other hand this is 800

[01:13:49] housing units. So just on that proportion alone, it's still a relatively small student generation rate. But compared against zero, it becomes much more significant. So we are happy that we were able to relatively accurately predict how many students would come out of this. The reason we'd been able to do that is because we'd been keeping an eye on a set of comparables over the last decade or so. So these are newer style rental apartments. All of these are relatively close to

[01:14:25] the city. A number of them are within the Fairfax high school boundary. And looking at the student yield ratio for these and their trends, this really helped us come up with a methodology for estimating student generation for new apartments. We still keep a look at these because these all factor into what we project for this year, because we come up with new ratios. You can see that these six units or six complexes, the numbers go up and down each year. But for this year, among all of

[01:14:58] these, there's about 2,300 housing units, about 272 students, and that's a 0.115 ratio. So you can see that for the most part, these are all on the same level as what we see in the city. So this is how we take a look at that new development from these new style apartments. And this is really the most important slide of the night because this shows those major types of new market rate housing that we tend to see and the yield ratios that we propose using for fiscal impact estimates over the

[01:15:36] coming year. So for not that we get a whole lot of detached development at this point, but we would project a yield ratio of 0.231 based on what we're seeing now. Townhouses, a little bit more common. We would propose a ratio of about 215. It's interesting that those two are so similar.

[01:16:00] For apartments, and this is really the big one, we would propose that 0.115 ratio that we saw from averaging all of those apartment complexes. And that's all of those six plus the ones from the city as well. Condominiums, we see really suppressed student numbers from new condominiums.

[01:16:25] We say here one quarter to one half of the apartment average. In reality, it tends to be less than that. I'm a little bit hesitant to go below a quarter because a lot of it depends on how much is owner-occupied and whatnot, and you could end up with a de facto apartment complex, even though it's condo ownership, so I like to stick it at a quarter and not go beneath that.

[01:16:53] So that is the student generation portion of the presentation, so I'm happy to talk about any of this if there's any questions. Ms. Barlmay. I think I'm good at the moment, but that was very fascinating. I'm still digesting, but thank you. Ms. Kelsey. Okay, two quick questions. Yes. I just want for clarification in my brain if we're saying apartments that's rentals and condos is it's somebody owns it correct correct okay yes just because I just wanted to make my clarification because I know sometimes that now some people say condo but then they rent it and I'm like wait

[01:17:31] right condos me then okay um the other question is on slide 15 um looking at the ones that you have here as well as I see Scout and the point are also included in this I find it kind of interesting that the ones that are in the city are increasing, but the ones, even though they will eventually come to city schools, they're decreasing. Is that, has anybody looked into that?

[01:18:01] Why? Very interesting. Now, the point at Fairfax is so new that between this year and the previous year, we have a hundred more occupied housing units. So I wouldn't use that as an indicator of going up or down. Scout on the Circle is definitely interesting how that number was at 45 or so last year and then went up to 53. Not completely uncommon for these to go up that amount, but it is interesting that the ones that we have in the city, you know, really seem to be

[01:18:40] on the higher end. Is that kind of, I mean, going, I mean, it kind of goes with what we're seeing with the county though i mean even though they're right by us right they're not is i i don't i don't have a reason for it okay it doesn't seem to be based on the type on the unit mix you know i don't i don't think we have more two-bedroom units than some of these others do they're all roughly in the same amount yeah and even some of them were newer so that's why okay right i just didn't know if anybody had looked into what the reasoning might be for that because going with our tax reason you

[01:19:14] think ours would be down a little bit but so okay thank you uh miss hickman miss sessori just had a clarifying question on your um extended head now this lovely thing right here yes the um there's three bars that are gray okay yeah the gray bars are uh are they all con they're all condos but they really don't fit into a category okay so uh the crossings condo is kind of a mid-rise but it's it's a walk-up. Main Street Green is an older apartment complex that was converted into

[01:19:52] condominiums. I think it's four stories. So it sort of fits into the mid-rise, but it is so different as far as a price point that it's really its own creature within the city. And Mount Vineyard 2 plus 2, right now, that's the only example of those piggyback condos that we have. If we get more of that kind of development, we can create another category, but that's the reason those are grayed out. And adding on to Ms. Kelsey's question, I'm sorry, just thinking

[01:20:28] of your first name there, the cost of living in the city, is it fair to say that we have a lower cost of living for when it comes to housing, mortgage, rentals, such, than, say, the region that surrounds us Fairfax County Arlington County Loudoun County and so that might be why we are seeing more people block here is that fair to assume or is that a stretch to make I'm just curious like just again adding to her point um just curious what you what you've seen regionally we're in the middle so point points to the east of us tend to have a higher cost of living points

[01:21:07] to the west of us so Loudoun and Prince William tend to have a lower cost of living Arlington Alexandria and the eastern portion of Fairfax County tends to be much higher. So we're in the middle. We're as in the middle financially as we are geographically. So. Thank you. Yeah. I just have one request. Do you think that you could send me the student general, this slide that you do every year from say 2016 and 17, like 16, 17, 18, like four years pre-COVID? Do you have one year

[01:21:46] in mind or would you like no i just want to see how these yields have changed uh just out of curiosity that's just for my that that is this okay i just so i i can i can certainly send it's just easier for me to look at it like i i love all of your thicknesses and dotted lines and colors i love a bar graph just saying absolutely thank you bet and you can just pick a couple of years

[01:22:18] pre-2019 i would say um and just uh clarify for everybody providence square condos we have one student but that's a over 55 community so it's it's actually not it i thought it was no it i you know i i thought it was too when when i first started here in the city i made the mistake of saying that at a public hearing at a city council meeting and i was corrected it's not an over 55 it is a it's not age restricted it just tends to appeal to an older clientele i think we were all

[01:22:56] sort of under the impression that it was uh no it okay good to know we are we're actually having our first uh age restricted community built in north facts right is a bright is a bright view you. Okay. All right. We got one more part here? One more part. So new development.

[01:23:27] This kind of sets the stage for talking about new development. We talk about this chart each year. This is also in the fact book. If you have a copy of the city fact book or if you can find it online, you'll see it in there. It's an interesting chart. So this shows the number of housing units built in Fairfax City by decade and also by the type of housing unit. You see the key up there. What's worth keeping an eye on? See, I use the same eye every year, too.

[01:23:58] I can't find an eye that I like better than this. I just keep using it. These two on the right are really the most important because these are the new developments. So that second column from the end says 2020 to 2024. That shows what has been built so far in this decade. Now, this decade, we're only half through the decade, and you can see that this bar is already twice as much as any other decade we've had since the 1960s. So this is that elevated rate of growth that we had talked

[01:24:37] about at the beginning. And the other thing that you can see here is that these two bars on the right, this decade and the approved units, are almost all multifamily units. So you see a real big change from what we've seen over the last several decades in those two fronts. A lot more high density housing than we have had in the past. So the number of housing units and the type have changed quite a bit. This hatched area here is non-student generating, so we'll get, that's that

[01:25:11] bright view and some others, so we'll get to that in a little bit. Now, these approved projects down here, this map shows where, what all of those projects are and where they're located, So you all have a copy of this map as well.

[01:25:30] So this shows all residential projects that have either been approved, and some of these have already been fully built, or have been filed, and that means that they have not yet been voted on by city council. So this also shows, and you can see the color key at the bottom right, it can show what type of housing units they are and the numbers.

[01:25:54] So this kind of gives an overview of the types of development that we're seeing right now, and also the location. The background colors indicate the elementary school boundaries. So a lot of information here. Again, feel free to look at it at your leisure, but we'll go through.

[01:26:13] Everyone wants to know some general parts of what these are, so we'll just go through. Could you just clarify the white area? The white area is the exclave. So that's my favorite. I always like when I can use the word exclave in a public meeting.

[01:26:31] It's my favorite word. So that's the donut hole. That's the judicial complex, 40 acres or so, that is not part of Fairfax City. That is part of Fairfax County. Yes. And currently there is... Zero.

[01:26:47] Zero, but there is a proposal for development on that property by Fairfax County for affordable housing. Correct. which if it has not been approved, it's just been filed.

[01:27:02] It has not been approved. Okay. But we will keep an eye on that because once it is approved or if it becomes approved, especially since it's affordable housing, we will see students come out of there. And we will need to, whoever is sitting on this board will need to be very mindful of where those students go to school and communicate with fairfax county public schools they have two options in in my unbiased

[01:27:37] opinion um of fairfax villa and also oakville um both very close to that um rather because otherwise we will most certainly it will be an attendance island because they have property within the city limits so um that's that would have to be an exception to their boundary committee yes yes miss hickman um so mr form i'm curious if that has come up in the boundary advisory committee

[01:28:13] meetings and no okay it it has not and neither has any other future development now i'm i'm not sure in the future if if that will come up but as of now uh future development has not come up at all thank you okay you can i'm sorry i just wanted to point that out while we had that map up yeah um because that that's that is significant that piece of property which is right in the middle of this well not in the middle of the city but it's right in between both elementary school boundaries

[01:28:49] for the city but does not belong to the city so it it does help i think to take a look at what these individual projects are.

[01:29:05] So there's three projects now that are very recently fully occupied. So we talked about the point at Fairfax, the Moxley, the apartment complex. So that was just fully occupied this past year. Sutton Heights townhouses.

[01:29:21] So it's 50 townhouses, five affordable units. This is on Pickett Road. We see this is the first year that this has been fully occupied, And we have seven students from that complex. The one on the bottom there, Boulevard 6 Condos.

[01:29:38] So this is one of those mid-rise. It looks just like the apartment buildings we're seeing, but it's a condominium. And you can see that there's two students. So right there, that's a great illustration of the very small enrollment numbers that we see from condominiums.

[01:29:54] If this was an apartment, we would probably have 15 students from there. it's interesting to take a look at that. And we've got a few projects that are nearing completion. So also in Boulevard 6, we have the townhouses, 115 townhouses in total. I think about 90 were occupied at the beginning of this school year, and most of the rest of them are occupied now.

[01:30:25] So this is the bigger of the new developments, Northfax West. We had eight townhouses that were occupied as of September. I think about 25 of them are occupied now as well.

[01:30:40] So this one is coming online as well. We've got some that are a little bit further behind in development. Overlook at Fairfax Boulevard, this is where the Breezeway Motel and Fairfax Gardens apartments were.

[01:30:58] This is now, this is under construction now. It is being occupied. 13 townhouses, I think, are already sold. And this has all been since the beginning of the school year. None of the stacked condos are sold yet.

[01:31:15] So, and, oh, does it say sold out? I would say there are 16. There's almost 20 sold probably now. They have sold signs.

[01:31:32] Yeah, you know, the stacked condos are really tough from a student perspective. Yeah. It could go anywhere. We've got very few enrolled from Mount Vineyard, which is our one example of it. There are some places in the county that have very, very high enrollment.

[01:31:50] So we'll see what we get with this. I have no idea. The two below are much smaller. These are not nearing occupancy. I have 25, 26. that's a bit optimistic. That should really be pushed back a year or so. And we have some additional projects that are also approved, and these could be starting construction soon.

[01:32:20] Affordable townhouses at the Presbyterian Church property. This one would generate more students than one would expect from a market rate townhouse complex just because of the price point.

[01:32:36] I have four to five here. It would probably be more than that. I just feel a little bit uncomfortable writing that it would be more than that, but it probably will be. Willowwood Apartment Complex down here. This is at the Willowwood Office Complex on Eaton Place.

[01:32:54] 260 apartments. It looks like it would be kind of a standard apartment complex. So I would say about 30 students from what we've seen. The one at the bottom is smaller, is planned as a condominium, I'd say two to three students.

[01:33:15] Again, those condos, we see very minimal enrollment. Are the city center-west condos more studio, one-bedroom types? No, they're big. They are big. Yeah. And you still only think that there will be two to three students? Yeah, I'd be surprised if we see more than that.

[01:33:33] We could wager on it. We could. I feel more comfortable wagering on that than the stacked condos. And I feel obligated to include this every year.

[01:33:54] This has been approved for at least the last 10 years. That's right. I think we have... Oh, yeah, since 2013. We're going to have students in high school that were born after this was approved. I mean, that's how long this has been there.

[01:34:09] But the reason I just feel obligated to mention it is this is the highest yielding apartment complex that we have. So we have, oh, how many, I think we have 110 students from Leighton Hall this year, from 110 apartment units.

[01:34:28] Yeah, they gained a lot from when Oak Knolls was taken down, too. So I do feel obligated to just let the board know that this is out there and this redevelopment can happen at any time. It's still approved.

[01:34:44] It's still approved. That's right. It's vested. So these are the non-student generating projects, and there are a few of them. Flats on University is the college student housing, the private dormitory.

[01:35:03] Brightview North Facts is the age-restricted place that is being built right now. Flats on University is built. Lamb Center Wesley Housing, this is affordable housing. This is mostly one-bedroom units, so it's doubtful that there would be occupancy or student occupancy from there.

[01:35:25] Nothing's completely out of the question, but I'd be surprised with the efficiencies in one-bedrooms if you'd really get it. So this is on the old Highway Motel property? And then we have this list.

[01:35:42] So this is, there are a number of projects that, you know, I would classify as potential at this point, and all of these projects have been discussed at least in a city council work session. Some of them in public hearings, some of them are close to being voted on to be approved or not, but none of these have actually been approved yet.

[01:36:03] So a few of these might be familiar if you keep track of city council meetings. Some of them may have significant student generation impacts. But just glancing at this list kind of gives the main point that there's a lot of large apartment complexes that are currently being proposed.

[01:36:22] So this list, if you add them up together, this includes over 1,000 housing units. And like it says over here, those 1,000 housing units could translate to 140 or so students using the ratios that we would use this year.

[01:36:41] One final item here, I guess two final items. One, down at the bottom, we have something that says activity centers. That's not one specific project, but that is an idea that's in the city's comprehensive plan of high-density development on these so-called activity centers, which are like downtown Camp Washington, North Fax, Fairfax Circle.

[01:37:09] And these are areas where city policy supports high-density type of development, so it's something to keep an eye on as far as future growth that would happen in these areas. The other thing to keep in mind, all of these projects here require city council approval.

[01:37:31] So right now, none of these can happen by right, that these are all things that have to be voted on and approved by city council. May I ask a quick question? These are all strictly high-density residential. There's no multi-use, no commercial attached.

[01:37:51] The only one that does not fit that category is the one at the bottom, the Highlands at Mantua, which is a townhouse complex, but that's 14 units. Everything else fits into that mold of Scoutoma Circle and the Moxley mid-rise.

[01:38:08] You have a similar kind of density. So there's nothing, let me be clear. So there's nothing commercial attached to any of this high density? Oh, I see what you're saying. No, there is commercial components to some of these. Okay. I think Circle, Gateway, Courthouse, Plaza, I think have significant commercial components.

[01:38:34] Some of the others might have some smaller commercial components. Okay. Thank you. Yep. So that does lead to the question of how many students we'd likely see from units that we know are coming.

[01:38:53] So, you know, we've got those 140 students that are hanging out there with their projects from the previous slide, but the projects that have actually been approved, and this is something that we're sure to actually see the units. So we'll just take a quick look here at those projects and what the enrollment might be.

[01:39:14] This is the group of projects that are currently under construction or currently partially occupied, and, you know, we would see additional, these are all townhouses, so we'd see 26 additional townhouses from Boulevard 6, additional over what we had in September, 48 from Northfax, 60 from Overlook, and that includes the stacked condos.

[01:39:42] So these three developments in total, I would say within a few years, would be generating about 30, it says here, 29 additional students. So these are complexes where we know those units are coming in a relatively short amount of time.

[01:39:58] These are school-aged children. There could be children who move in who are not school-aged yet. Right. And then these numbers would change. Right. But either way, I would expect out of these units, really, for that number to be relatively consistent, you know, in that.

[01:40:18] I feel like overlook's going to be higher than 13, but that's just my prediction. Could be. With those stacked condos, it's definitely possible. And then we have this other list of projects. So these have been approved by city council. So these are developments that we're fairly certain would be built relatively soon.

[01:40:43] So this shows these developments, shows an estimated student yield. You know, I mean, keep in mind these are rough estimates, obviously, but the purpose here is to give some kind of reasonable idea of the amount of enrollment we could expect, and what we'd be looking at is approximately 40 students from these developments, the biggest chunk being from the apartment complex.

[01:41:10] Just to put this in perspective for everybody on the board, 60 students is $1.2 million on our tuition bill. $1.2 million. It has nothing to do with operational costs for the county.

[01:41:27] That is simply student yields. And last two slides, take a look at this section of the Fairfax High School boundary that's west of the city because there were some questions that came up about what kind of development may be coming from there.

[01:41:51] And I will tell you, looking at this kind of information makes you glad that you live in the city because to find this information on the city website, you just go to the city website and you type in development map and then you get a map of this.

[01:42:07] Doing it in Fairfax County is not that easy. So credit to the city for making this kind of stuff more transparent. But what we're looking at here is really two apartment complexes that have been approved already in that section of Fairfax County that is within the Fairfax High School boundary.

[01:42:30] Residents at Government Center, this is a 279-unit affordable apartment complex, and occupancy is slated fairly soon. And I would say that this would generate at least 40 students.

[01:42:46] And with affordable complexes, that may be on the low side. There's also another one, Fair Lakes Parkway. There's an office conversion of 380 apartments. Not quite clear if that's apartments or a condo.

[01:43:04] It's not specified. That would make a big difference, so that's why I have that expected yield at 10 to 40 students because that really isn't settled yet. But from these two alone, we would be looking at 50 to 80 students in all likelihood.

[01:43:21] Just to help you figure out where they are, this is a map that shows them that potential one, C. A and B are the ones we talked about in the last slide. C is a potential project. Folks don't seem all that confident in that one going forward, but I feel obligated to at least have it up there on the slide.

[01:43:43] And that is it for new development. So, again, I'm glad to answer any questions you all might have. Ms. Essary, I'll start with you. Thank you, Chairwoman.

[01:43:59] I also want to thank you for highlighting the increase in the tuition cost. I actually had that note, too. I was just, I want to, you know, thinking about the increase that's happening across the new development, I just want to kind of loop back to some of the existing neighborhoods in our city, Because we do see turnover as residents age out, maybe downsize, and then new families come in.

[01:44:25] That's included in these calculations, too. Is that correct? Yes, it is. Okay. Right. So something else to think about as we grow. And neighborhoods do change. It's interesting. If you look at that chart, one of the subdivisions that has the least amount of students right now is called Providence, which is on Providence Way.

[01:44:44] a decade ago that had the highest and right and it was way out of line and the bar for that development was way higher than any anything else and now it's like nothing almost no one uh orchard knolls is is just about the opposite and very similar development similar in size similar in age uh but i i think a cohort of families moved in at about the same time and Now that development is where Providence was not too long ago.

[01:45:21] So it's interesting how they change. Ms. Hickman. I don't have questions, but I just want to put just a statement for anyone who's watching that I am concerned about the increase in student yield from those that have already been approved and have been built.

[01:45:38] If my numbers are correct, that's at least 200 possible students in the next three to five years. And then I guess in turn, my concern is that that doesn't seem to be being taken into account in these boundary advisory committee meetings and the consideration for that.

[01:45:56] I'm hoping, like you said, it will come later. But between our city approved and the county approved, right, we're looking at 350 additional students at least. And then along with that, you know, I would really highly suggest that council thinks pretty deeply about approving additional high yield housing especially since we don't know how much more those apartments are like that trend could continue to go up i mean i was in your with your big i like the big green line graph but you see those detached houses and those apartments

[01:46:36] coming together right in terms of yield so we can only assume that's going to continue but we'll see so thank you for your presentation miss kelsey um going on the bar graph i was kind of wondering if a child got a hold of the top line and that's why it was so thick so thank you for explaining that um on slide 18 um when you on the 2020 20 to 2024 the detached slash duplexes so the blue little section does that include um like if there was a single family home there or

[01:47:13] there was and they built like are they like tore down a couple and they built like townhouses there Does that take that into account, or if there was townhomes and they built, or they tore down and then built a new house even?

[01:47:30] I think I excluded them from this chart. I have two versions of this chart, one that has historical housing units, one that does not. I think this excludes them because I think the Yorktown apartments would have been on it, and those were built in the 1950s, and I don't think they're there.

[01:47:48] so i i i think that those are excluded does it also include though like i'm thinking on warwick where they tore down some homes but they built these bigger homes now does that include those as new development then or not right yes this this chart would include those as new so that that very small detached duplex number under the 2024 that that includes new development most of which is infill development one I think though the city did listen to us but we said stop putting things in Providence area but the problem is it seems like all of

[01:48:26] the ones now are in Daniel's run and they probably are going to come at the same time and that's what we're dealing with now I think in Providence is we all filed huh yeah the filed ones yeah like well yeah no I'm getting it but I'm just saying that's where we came in to the problem now at Providence is all of a sudden we have Moxley we have you know some of the others the Boulevard they're all coming at the same time we all of a sudden have this influx of kids where all of these came in at the same time whereas Daniel's run doesn't have they have what 35 kids is that what we said earlier you know and then we all of a

[01:49:02] sudden get these so hopefully we can stagger some of this but yeah thank you for the presentation appreciate it Ms. Bartleman I think my questions have been addressed by um the other members but that's what happened yep but thank you so much this was very fascinating okay i don't have any um further questions um i i would say that in terms of what

[01:49:37] miss kelsey was saying um davies property layton hall uh circle gateway that's been i feel like i've seen that for quite some time now um but the sutton heights approved one i think that that might you know that's that one and even though leighton hall is approved is it it's the financing

[01:50:09] right that the the owner couldn't hasn't been able to secure financing to because how many i've heard so many stories about that uh you know i i think it's the owner's either preference or obligation but he keeps up the approval right yes yes that's right the approval is vested and the and the approval would transfer if the current owner sells the property that the new to somebody okay and right now yes okay it is i thought i remembered they were going to replace

[01:50:45] 110 with three times as many units so it'll be interesting to see if that ever right because if that because if that does ever amount to something daniel's run will be uh very affected by that although it could be either way though enrollment might go down that's what i'm saying like if it's new and you know but if it's if it remains affordable housing we could get even more kids right okay anybody have go back okay miss kelsey sorry you just brought it up in my head on the

[01:51:22] approval just i i don't under know all of it um once they are filed or they are approved how long do they is it forever until they decide or is there a time frame until once it's approved how long until it gets built or no like if they're approved and then all of a sudden like if layton Hall, it's been approved, but it keeps, if it's a finance thing and so they can't actually pay to have it built, how long is that on the books kind of for? How long is it good for? Layton Hall is good, I don't want to say indefinitely, but it's probably pretty close because they had actually

[01:52:02] done a minimal amount of site work in order to keep that approval up. I'm not entirely sure what that process was. If a property owner has an approval and does absolutely nothing, then that will expire after a certain number of years. Late in Hall, the owners actually did something to be able to keep it up. So in that case, I believe it is vested for a foreseeable time. So as long as they do something on the property, they get it. It was very close, if I recall correctly. It was

[01:52:37] very close to being redeveloped and the finance if i'm remembering correctly because yeah that's what i was years ago it it the financing fell through and they never secured new financing um okay next on the agenda is public hearing which we have none and so we'll move on to action items um the approval of the april 7 2025 meeting minutes the clerk has provided these minutes um is there a motion um madam chair i move that the city of fairfax school board approve the

[01:53:16] minutes of the april 7th 2025 school board regular meeting as printed and distributed thank you miss bartle may i have a second i'll second okay miss bartle may move the accessory seconded city fairfax school board approve uh the minutes from the april 7th 2024 regular 2025 and it's april yeah april 7th i think the date from the last year was in there um april 7th 2025 regular school board meeting is printed and distributed

[01:53:49] um any additions modifications corrections okay being none um all those in favor signify by saying aye aye no members are opposed the motion passes unanimously okay our next action item is a motion this evening to approve uh the acceptance of mr plottenberg retirement notice i may have a motion please madam chair miss sessori i move that the city of fairfax school board accept the superintendent's retirement effective july 31st 2025 and authorize the chair to take any steps

[01:54:25] needed to officiate that decision okay i may have a second okay ms kelsey miss sessori move miss kelsey seconded city of fairfax school board accept uh superintendent platenberg's retirement effective july 31st of 2025 and authorize the chair to take any steps needed to effectuate that decision all those in favor signify by saying aye aye no members oppose the motion passes unanimously okay we'll move on to superintendent matters mr plattenberg thank you madam chair and i'll be brief but as we celebrate teacher appreciation week i want to take a moment to

[01:55:04] acknowledge the incredible dedication and the compassion and talent of all of our teachers and educators their tireless efforts both seen and unseen it may continue to make a lasting impact on our our students our families our community every single day and our teachers as we all know are the heart of our schools they inspire curiosity foster resilience and guide the next generation with the patience and purpose that only our teachers can truly do we're so grateful for their unwavering commitment and honored to support their work so thank you for allowing me to express my heartfelt appreciation to every educator in the city of Fairfax schools they truly make a

[01:55:42] difference. So thank you, Madam Chair. Thank you, Mr. Plattenberg. We'll move on to board matters. Ms. Bartlemy. Sure. I'd like to second the kudos to all of our teachers in the city. I know my kids have had some really phenomenal life-changing teachers while attending the city schools, and so I just wanted to share my appreciation for the teachers that we have. I wanted to give a particular shout out to Chris Whitney and the cast and crew of Hadestown. They did a phenomenal

[01:56:15] job and I believe that it was record selling tickets for a play at Fairfax as well so I just wanted to do kudos there and then also to extend another congratulations to the students we recognized tonight. Thank you. Ms. Kelsey. I also will say thank you to all the teachers out there and their awesome job that they do every day. They are very dedicated. I've seen some of them there late into the evening and I know when I drive by some of them are there very very early in the

[01:56:50] morning and so thank you for all that dedication that you have and helping all of our students also congratulations to everybody who is recognized tonight and I also look forward to all the celebrations that are coming before our next meeting because I know we have tons of senior activities coming up and then i also hope that everybody has that is attending the fairfax prom coming up that they have a fun and safe evening thank you miss kelsey miss hickman

[01:57:24] i just wanted to um also say that hadestown was absolutely amazing i mean i couldn't i didn't know what i was going to see when i was going because i've never heard about the show and i just i couldn't say enough good things afterwards um also i wanted to thank uh mr john king for having us at the auto tech meeting um i think only last week um and all the work that is being doing there done in his program is amazing as usual i had the pleasure of attending the fashion and motion show this weekend um kendall berry and her academy students really put on an incredible show and

[01:58:00] it's just so fun to watch and it makes you really feel like you're at a real fashion show um i also want to congratulate all the seniors who are making decisions whether they are enrolling in higher education enlisting in different programs are of accepted employment and also to congratulate all the senior athletes who are completing their final seasons and to wish everyone happy prom and last but certainly not least thank all the teachers for their tireless efforts both both within the city and outside in the entire country they do work that is underappreciated and underpaid and none of this would be possible without them and you know I'm

[01:58:40] I'm really hoping that in the future we can continue to recognize and understand the work that the teachers do and be able to support them in ways that will really be beneficial for all of them. Well, I don't think anybody's going to be able to top that teacher appreciation.

[01:58:55] I'm just going to piggyback on yours, Miss Essary. I also caught Hadestown, and once again, I was just blown away by the talent of our students and the hard work that they did, just phenomenal work. Every year I'm always just blown away.

[01:59:12] Of course, thank you again for the students who came tonight and was recognized. Just we have amazing students in our city schools. I also want to wish our students good luck with end-of-year testing, SOLs, AP, IB testing is starting this month.

[01:59:28] I know that can be stressful, so I hope you all take time for yourselves to do your best and whatnot. And as everyone else said, Teacher Appreciation Week is this week. I just want to give a shout out to all those teachers that are in our city schools and of course the county too but if anybody's watching and I encourage you to take a moment and write an email to one of those teachers as a former teacher at Fairfax I still have my letters that I received during teacher appreciation week they are truly some of my cherished values so thank you so much thank you miss Sessori I realized that I don't know why I thought that mr.

[02:00:08] Foreman was sticking around to the end. I was like, I was like, I'm just going to thank him at the end. I looked up and he was gone. So thank you, Mr. Foreman, wherever you are. We thoroughly enjoy your presentation once, twice, three times a year you've been this time. Congratulations to our students. Happy Teacher Appreciation Week. I will just revert to what Ms. Hickman said.

[02:00:35] And I'd also like to take a minute to thank Ms. Dorsey for all her work on the senior story. because that takes an inordinate amount of time and effort on her part to recognize all our wonderful you know wonderful seniors at Fairfax High School so I just want to make sure that she is recognized for that work if there

[02:00:58] is nothing else before the board I will adjourn this meeting at 8:31

[05:25:36] *music*

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