Coraggio Consulting
City of Fairfax School Board Work Session, Monday, November 10, 2025

Date: Monday, November 10, 2025
Place: City Hall, City of Fairfax, Virginia
Length: 1h 39m (video)
Official meeting video (city, Granicus): https://fairfax.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=13&clip_id=4393
Agenda: https://fairfax.granicus.com/AgendaViewer.php?view_id=13&clip_id=4393
Minutes: https://fairfax.granicus.com/MinutesViewer.php?view_id=13&clip_id=4393&doc_id=6485d8f4-c3ee-11f0-a7da-005056a89546

Machine transcript (speech-to-text) produced by Coraggio Consulting. Not an official county record. Names and numbers may be misspelled; check the video at the timestamp before quoting.
Speech-to-text: whisper.cpp, model large-v3-turbo. Produced 2026-10-12. Timestamps are [HH:MM:SS] into the meeting video.

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[00:00:01] okay we're recording good evening ladies and gentlemen it is monday november 10 2025 this is a work session of the city of fairfax school board um before we begin i'd like to um just remind board members that um if you let just let me know if you would be called upon a little more casual during work sessions um just be mindful about robert's roles um and also take a moment to welcome dr wright for joining us in the audience this evening um for tonight's work section we're going to begin with a discussion of the sro memorandum of understanding um from our acting superintendent dan phillips and we also welcome captain hawkins from the city of complex police

[00:00:47] tonight we have a brief update about the mou tonight we've been working for quite some time on the memorandum of understanding the school resource officers this is the agreement between the FCPS, the City of Fairfax Schools, and the City of Fairfax Police. And again, we welcome Captain Hawkins from the City Police this evening.

[00:01:05] Captain Hawkins and I worked together in partnership with Ryan Morgan, the Executive Director of the FCPS Safety and Security Office, to complete the process of reviewing and updating the MOU. And tonight we're gonna tell you a little bit about what we've done and where we're going from here. And I'll share, and I invite Captain Hawkins to just jump in with his perspective about city council and community council.

[00:01:27] And so about a year ago, we started the process of reviewing the MOU and it came to our attention that we were delinquent and updating the document. It's a document that should be updated every two years and it's been quite some time. So when we found out about it, we started the process.

[00:01:45] And in July, kind of all three, FCPS, City Police, and our office had some turnover and some changes. So we sort of had a great opportunity to regroup and start over. So Captain Hawkins and I got together with Ryan Morgan from FCPS, and the three of us came together and talked about resolving the need.

[00:02:04] We first confirmed that our respective legal departments had looked at the existing document, and we wanted to find out, even though the existing agreement was old, was it still in play?

[00:02:22] Was it still in effect? And it was. So that gave us a little time to go through the process properly, which was important. So it remained in effect throughout the time we were doing the review for this updated document. This allowed us time to complete the process properly and thoroughly. At the same time, Carrie Dorsey, our communications director, led the process of gathering public comment through our website.

[00:02:44] So we had a window of opportunity open for public comment also at our school board meetings if anyone wanted to join us for those. And so after that public comment window, we reviewed all the comments. Captain Hawkins used the comments, the state model memorandum of understanding, the City of Fairfax Police Policies, and the Fairfax County Public Schools' student rights and responsibilities to revise the original draft that we started with.

[00:03:14] And then we circulated the revised draft to all three organizations, and that included staff members, the police chief, the SROs, the legal departments of the various organizations for comments and input. And then the final version we shared with the school board members has been approved through the City of Fairfax Legal and it's now at Fairfax County Public Schools for their final legal check.

[00:03:37] And there weren't a lot of changes since the last document they saw, so we're anticipating finding out very soon that we're good to go from them. Captain Hawkins, thoughts? Tell us just about the process you want. No, I think you summarized it very well, Dan. Dan and I have been working together for a few months now to update this agreement between the schools and the police department.

[00:03:59] So taking into account from the public comment period, which happened at the beginning of the school year, we wanted to make sure we reviewed all of those comments that would have been received and looked into how to implement them into an updated document to present to you all.

[00:04:17] So we did take all of those comments into consideration and push this to our legal teams to review it, give us feedback. Those have been vetted and our policies with the police department.

[00:04:35] I will also add our top notch where we've recently gone through an accreditation process to where I'm hoping later this month we will be accredited through CALEA, which is the national accreditation standard. So I'm very confident that all of the information in this document reflecting our policies and the attorneys who have reviewed it is a good document for the city and the schools.

[00:05:05] And so we're anticipating that late November, early December, we should get final sign-off by FCPS. And at that point, you know, certainly depending on any questions or concerns you have, the document would then go to the police chief, to the superintendent of Fairfax City Schools, and also the superintendent of Fairfax County Public Schools for final signatures and kind of wrap up that process.

[00:05:28] Now, I think because we were delinquent this last time, one thing that we've talked about a lot is just making sure that that never happens to us again. And so the thing that's most important is that it's a document that functions well and it's well designed and it stays current.

[00:05:48] And so we're really grateful for the work that all the administrators and the SROs do. And it's our hope that this document provides them information to guide their work in our schools. And once we get that final approval, kind of our intention, we're going to publish the MOU on both the Fairfax County Public Schools website and the city schools website.

[00:06:06] And, Captain Hawkins, would that be on the county, I'm sorry, on the city police website also? I know we're required to do it, and FCPS will as well, but I don't know. You all are required. I would have to talk with the police chief and our IT staff and confirm whether or not it would be placed there as well.

[00:06:22] But we can get an information. And you could also refer people to us. Sure. We also want to ensure that the administrators and the SROs read the document and understand the guidelines and that they stay current with that. And that would be an annual thing or any time when the administrators or the SROs change places.

[00:06:41] So if somebody new comes in, we'd want that to be a standard part of the procedure. I could just expand on that. So the board, you all are aware on how we in the police department train our staff on policies and changes to those policies.

[00:06:58] We have a weekly update on all of our policies that are updated from the week before. That goes out on Wednesdays at midnight, and all officers, all staff, are required to log in and review any policies that have been updated. So in regards to the school MOU, it would not just be our SROs who would receive this document and know what the agreement is between us and the school system.

[00:07:24] All sworn officers, in addition to all other staff, are required to review the document and sign off on it as they've acknowledged receipt of receiving it and understand. And if any questions come up, we also have a stand-up meeting with supervisors every week for them to ask any questions, get any clarification on changes in policy.

[00:07:50] So I just wanted to let you all know it's not just the SROs. While this document reflects the agreement specifically for how the SROs operate with the school system, also an officer will be required to sign off on that. And then on our end, FCPS administrators get a training every year of updated policies and changes.

[00:08:10] So they're trained during that time, but we're also going to personally make sure that the administrators, the principals at least, know to share it with their administrative teams at each of our four city schools just to stay current. And then one of the most important things is making sure that two years from the time it's signed, we're ready to do another review.

[00:08:28] And at that time, we either review it, we revise it if necessary, or we affirm that everything's okay. And we'd make it public that we're doing the review at that time. And Captain Hawkins and I are going to work to make sure multiple people in both of our departments have that information.

[00:08:43] I think that's really what happened last time. By the time, it was time for a new review. People had changed places, and then eventually nobody knew that that was supposed to happen. So we're glad we know it. We're thankful that we're able to fix it, and hopefully we're ready to move forward very soon. And with that, Captain Hawkins, any other comments?

[00:09:00] I do not. Then turn it to the board for any questions you might have. Questions or thoughts? One question I have for you is for the SR officers, is this a they go through a yearly hiring type thing, Or is it they are it until, like, they're asked to either go back into the field?

[00:09:31] Or I'm just curious on how long normally the SRO officers are around. Sure. The SRO process, when we have one that's open, we will ask or advertise internally to see if there's any officers who wish to compete in a process and interview for that position.

[00:09:52] It is an intense process. I mean, in an interview and stuff like that, we don't just take anyone off the street and say, oh, go to the schools, okay? Now, as far as how often or how long people stay in that assignment, it's really up to them.

[00:10:12] Unless there's some type of disciplinary reason where we would remove an officer from the school, I will share that I'm not aware of any during my career that that's ever happened. But they really stay in there as long as they want and they're doing a good job.

[00:10:29] I think that that's important as well. When you ingrain yourself into the school and into the community, you learn more about what's going on, the lay of the land, how things operate. And, you know, I've seen people that have spent several years in a school or even changed schools just to get a little change of scenery.

[00:10:50] But there's no limit, if you will, on how long someone either has to or can stay in that position. Okay. I'm just making sure because Officer Johns and doing correct track and cross-country, I think it would be a big loss over at KJ.

[00:11:07] Yes. Because they love her over there and the kids do, so that's why. And then I think that's all I have. Okay. Two questions.

[00:11:28] So within our MOU, can you explain any slight changes that may be different from our county, like a CPS school, the differences, or just to have a...

[00:11:48] Is that a question for me? Thank you. Now, if I could ask a just clarifying question, are you referring to the SRO agreement between the county police and the county schools? So this, like, at least this MOU, SRO, the difference.

[00:12:07] So, like, if I'm an SRO, I know, like, our SROs are city police. There's ever a point where a city police officer would go to a county school or a county police officer would go to a city school soon?

[00:12:24] So, yes, and I'll try to explain this as easily as I can. We work with Fairfax County in all jurisdictions in this area every day, okay? the authority to make arrests lies with us as city police in the city and Fairfax County within Fairfax County so to answer your question we could not go out to a Fairfax County school let's just say Westfield High School and affect an arrest as well as Fairfax County police could

[00:12:58] not come into a city school and affect an arrest now there may be or there's often cases that we work across jurisdictional boundaries where a county um a fairfax county officer may come into the school work with our sro for a for a case um on a student that may go to the school or affected the school and vice versa so um does that does that answer your question a little bit so i guess like more to the administrators who do teeter that line more is there a red line version could we provide a red line version for them so they can see the difference between what this MOU agreement

[00:13:36] between just FCPS and the county school police versus our little more nuanced. Yeah, sure. I think that's certainly something that we could do. I think the spirit of it really is the interaction between the school administrator and the police should be very similar in both places.

[00:13:56] Most of the things that are different would be things that are like procedural within the city police versus a different, slightly different policy in the county. But the interaction with the school administrator should be very similar. But still, it's possible to show them both. Okay, great. And then the second question I have is thinking about recognizing it's really important for the SRO to have a vaccine.

[00:14:20] A lot of great SROs that can really create a strong bond. In our agreement, it says they have access to student information, which does make sense under the umbrella of FERPA, according to FERPA.

[00:14:35] So when it comes to, like, students with disabilities, where they might have a behavior plan, what is that relationship for those students in that relationship with sro so i i understand your question um i i envision the relationship with from an sro and any student to be very similar now if a student has an iep special accommodations or something like that i think that uh if there's if there's behavioral problems that are happening in the school i would expect that the sro does

[00:15:11] some legwork if you will and speak with administrator or speak with the teacher who has more information on on what those disabilities may be or how to help that student and correct whatever behaviors that have been brought to the attention of the SRO as far as specific things I think that's on a case-by-case situation so does that answer your question

[00:15:43] Absolutely, and accommodations and things like that that a student would get through his IEP would apply any time in any of those same circumstances. So it would be up to the teacher and the school to make sure that the SRO had the information they need to meet any of those accommodations.

[00:16:01] I would also share that we do a lot of training for staff, de-escalation training, in addition to CIT type of training, mental health training. So there's a lot of training that we as a department do that I think definitely spills into the school or, you know, rolls over.

[00:16:23] There's overlapping programs that I think the school puts on that we put on from just different perspectives. Can you go back? Very well. Captain Knox, thank you so much. Thank you. Welcome to me now and join us if you're not.

[00:16:41] I'd love to. I think he's going to go home and see us. I'm going to go home. Thank you. Thank you again for your time. on the agenda, we have Eric Foreman, our City of Fairfax Development and Planning, who will be presenting the student yields and boundary committee updates. So thank you for joining us tonight.

[00:17:04] You're absolutely welcome. It occurred to me as Captain Hawkins was speaking, I have a slide or two slides on my own PowerPoint of the boundary adjustment, but that's not on here because this is the PDF, so if you'd like, I can give Dan my thumb drive that'll have, show those maps if you're not familiar with the boundary adjustment maps.

[00:17:30] Whatever, whatever you think is appropriate, but if you want to just, whatever you show, just make sure you give to Ms. King. Sure. So that could be, whatever could be public there. Dan, is that good? Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much again.

[00:17:45] Thank you. Just a brief intermission.

[00:18:01] I saw you hold this up as a morning, and I'm like, oh, I have a phone. Oh, it's not like that. And that one right there, I speak.

[00:18:25] Okay. You should look familiar. So I'm glad you met Dr. Wright before our meeting, and I was saying that this is working with the school board is, I think, my favorite part of my job.

[00:18:45] So I'm glad to be here. And typically talk twice a year. We have talked once a year in the spring for quite some time, and that spring discussion is very detailed about student generation rates.

[00:19:02] A few years ago, I was asked to speak as well about new residential development, and that's the majority of this. The spring discussion is posted on generation rates with a little bit of development, and this is the business. Mostly, you can think of it as a private development over here, so you're getting all the good information from the planning department.

[00:19:24] And the reason is, is because over the last several years, with the amount of development we've had in the city, an increasingly big chunk of the power of new enrollment has been new development. So it's a good idea just for the board to be familiar with what's going on in the city, what might be coming down the road, what's already been approved by city council and whatnot.

[00:19:48] So I'll briefly touch on student yields and enrollment because that's new information. And that'll be interesting, too. So with that out of the way, we can start and look at our current year membership numbers in our four schools.

[00:20:09] So, you know, what's striking this year is that our membership out of three of our four schools has declined. And it's declined throughout most of the FCPS system, including much of the region, Paul Church being the outlier there, but most significantly the numbers at our city schools are less than the projections from last year.

[00:20:34] And as you can imagine in demographic circles, there's lots of talk about why this is happening, and I have some theories, and many other folks have some theories too, but right now we can just look at the actual numbers, and we can see several things in this chart So the dark lines in each of those represent the last six years of actual September enrollment.

[00:20:59] That big dark dot is this current year, so it's September 25. Now those light-colored lines, these are particularly interesting because what these represent is last year's projections from FCPS.

[00:21:17] So FCPS makes five-year projections every year. I'm glad I'm not tasked with making these things. This is not an easy job. But there are some significant changes to what was projected last year.

[00:21:33] Daniel's run in particular, that's the purple line up there. So Daniel's run between last September and this September, we've seen a drop of 70 students. And that's in a year when FCPS had projected enrollment to students.

[00:21:51] So that's over 8% of the student body, and that's a significant drop, any way you look at it. So that's really the big news. Providence, other schools weren't that extreme.

[00:22:08] Providence membership has held much more steady. As you can see, it's the red line there. Just a handful, just a small decrease. But again, the bigger news was that Providence's enrollment was expected to increase instead.

[00:22:25] We'll take a look at how our schools' changes compare to other schools in the FCPS system. We'll take a look at that in the next slide. But for now, we'll just go on and look at the middle school and high school. Katherine Johnson, down there at the bottom left, you can't quite see it because of the color.

[00:22:46] That was right on target, just about, which is great. We'll love to see that. We did see a drop of 29 students. That was largely expected, and it's just because of cohort sizes. At the high school, we saw an increase in high school enrollment.

[00:23:05] Now, overall, Fairfax County public schools' high school enrollment actually dropped throughout the system, about 2%. Ours was one of those that raised. But even here, you can see that the increase was less than what was projected last year.

[00:23:23] So, now, these projections, they're largely done by extrapolating great cohorts. They don't account for known new development, and they don't account for unforeseen demographic changes, and I think that's a lot we're seeing this year.

[00:23:41] The folks who do this really do a great job, but it's awfully tough to do it, and it's especially tough when there's demographic challenges. They're seeing a number of those this year that just make it unpredictable. So it's a little bit easier to understand this if it's put in context of other schools, so that's what this does, and you all have the big sheet that's the handout has this and has all 140 schools, so you can look at that when you get them, it's great nighttime reading material.

[00:24:16] It's really interesting. So this shows that enrollment change from last year to this year. This is all the elementary schools and FCPS. And elementary school membership in its entirety is down about 2.2%, and that's kind of the center column there.

[00:24:36] Daniel's run, way over there on the right, is way down. It's one of the biggest declines throughout the system. It's impossible to know right now what's behind this. We may have some kind of clue when we get our full address data.

[00:24:53] Not that that clue would really make everything explained. If you remember last year, Providence had an unforeseen increase. We were able to peg it to the apartment complexes right along here at Germantown Road, but there's no single cause to that.

[00:25:11] It's just kind of the fluctuation among rentals. Maybe the same thing with Daniel's run, maybe it's a little different, hopefully. You can see there's Providence there in the center or center-left, basically stable enrollment.

[00:25:29] And again, that's interesting because last year, our enrollment here just increased so much in this year. There's a fairly good chance that we just may see some more of that big up-and-down swing. This is middle school, and again, you have a take-home version of this as well.

[00:25:56] So total middle school enrollment is relatively steady, down about half a percent. Catherine Johnson saw a bigger decline in both schools, but middle school is tough to make any kind of extrapolation with this because it's two grades and just the difference in one grade can lead to a big difference at the school level.

[00:26:19] And on to high school, high school total enrollment fell by about 1.8% system-wide, so that's about 1,000 students. Like I mentioned, Fairfax High School membership increased modestly, so one of nine high schools that actually increased in enrollment.

[00:26:39] Again, prematurely jump to conclusions about this, but what I find interesting, if I were to look at this and try to figure out a pattern, The pattern that really comes to me is that most of the schools that saw significant declines tend to be in lower income areas.

[00:26:57] Most of the schools that saw increases tend to be in higher income. It doesn't really hold true at the elementary school level, but it just jumps out at me looking at these numbers just from a clean slate.

[00:27:14] So that might hold a clue to what's going on, and then again, it might not. And this is another big picture of regional enrollment trends. I like this chart. It looks at FCPS enrollment changes by school level, so elementary, middle, high school, since 2019.

[00:27:38] I've shared this with the board before in previous years. 2019 is significant because it was the last pre-COVID year, and we saw that big enrollment drop, especially with elementary and middle school during the COVID years. For the last two years, elementary and middle school enrollment system-wide has kind of cracked back up, but then we saw that decline in both school levels this year.

[00:28:05] Lots of reasons why this might be the case. A lot of it's beyond what we're dealing with, what we're talking about, but still, it's an interesting material. If there's any questions about all of this before I get into the city-specific stuff.

[00:28:22] Any board members have questions? Ms. Kelsey? On that first slide for the projections for FCPS, when did they make those projections? With the CIP. So they make it like more winter, spring-ish kind of?

[00:28:40] Right. Okay. So these come out with draft CIP. I've never noticed them change between draft and finalized CIP. They might have at some point. They never have. Okay. And then also the high school numbers.

[00:28:56] Refresh my memory. Is that homeschool only? Or if it's that it's Fairfax High School's homeschool, it's not counting academy. It does not count academy. The segment? Yes. So I'm really curious about the big drop at Daniel's Run.

[00:29:15] And I think I appreciate you following back up with us with the Providence, because I know that was a question we had last year. I know there's a million elementary schools. So on slide three, you weren't able to provide the names. I am somewhat curious to see if it aligned. Never mind.

[00:29:30] You did send it to us. Okay. I think that makes you, you might need to magnify that. I do, probably. Yeah, I'm just curious about if this is, when the numbers are pulled, it's not done by demographic, is it? I feel like we've had this discussion.

[00:29:47] You can't pull to see if there's a certain demographic that's leaving. I'm wondering if this is a political climate implication. Not countywide. We can, we get that information in city schools. I don't have it countywide.

[00:30:03] we might be able to get it on on their website okay well even just city schools i'd be curious to see and i think like you said in terms of where people are living it's helpful um but if it is which i definitely need magnifying glass to see um reflects what the high school is showing it does seem to be that this is maybe kind of based off of um where we have some more of our students that are kind of coming and going within the schools so yeah yeah what one of one of the theories about what might be happening, and I think there's enough fact behind this to

[00:30:38] make the whole quarter, is the reduction in immigration. And I know that's a political topic, and I don't want to get into the politics of it, but if you look just on demographics, direct forward immigration, people moving from another country directly here, accounted for the majority of Northern Virginia's past decade. In the last two years, it accounted for all of it, you know, and then some.

[00:31:07] So the reason is that since the middle of the last decade, if you look at domestic migration, so just people moving in and out within the United States, more people have moved out of Northern Virginia. So we lose population domestically.

[00:31:24] There's a little bit of natural increase in births, but foreign immigration has been so strong for most of the last decade that that's a kind of inflation growth. If that's pulled back, and it's too early to know now because those numbers take a while to come out, but if that's pulled back, that could account for a population.

[00:31:46] Okay, thank you. That was actually exactly what I was thinking. People continue to move out. Yeah, and not come in. Okay, thank you so much for that. Ms. Ballard? Any more questions? You might not be within your circle of responsibility.

[00:32:05] Just thinking about things run, too, and the changes that are happening within the federal government side as well, Is that something that you might be seeing in the tea leaves here of enrollment that as federal workers are perhaps shifting to other, maybe other places, other opportunities and whatnot?

[00:32:23] I'm not sure that that's been reflected a whole lot as of this September. I think in years to come, it certainly will. I'm not sure how many federal affiliated workers or federal workers or contractors have actually moved out the first nine months.

[00:32:41] It could be a lot. It could also be fewer. I think some folks think that a lot of the federal workers who have taken that early retirement have been retirement eligible anyway, in which case they wouldn't have a lot of school students associated with them.

[00:33:01] So it's a little bit unsure, but I think that definitely plays a role. I think another thing where that may come into play is, again, a reduction of people moving into this area for federal employment. And I have a feeling that that might emerge in apartment rent because we've never quite been able to figure out who these people are who moved in.

[00:33:29] So let's look at our new apartment houses really throughout the region. So, you know, these are apartments that rent for $2,000, $25,000, and so on, who is living in those who have children who go to school. A lot of folks think that it's people who are moving here from other parts, either moving here temporarily or moving here and staying in an apartment until they figure out where they're going permanently, but it's kind of a constant churn of that population.

[00:33:59] If that is cut down on due to lack of federal hiring, that could affect people. Thank you. Continue. Okay, so this is the big goody from our spring meeting, our student generation, you're probably familiar with this chart because it talks about a variation of this every year, but it's still worth going over. So student generation yield ratio refers to, I mean, this is really the

[00:34:37] critical element in projecting enrollment for future development. This is the number of enrolled students per housing unit, the major ingredient in our fiscal impact estimates that we do for new development, and we calculate these for various housing types, and we arrange these types into housing units or neighborhoods that share similar characteristics.

[00:35:01] So, for example, the older or established detached neighborhoods way on the left has a 0.383 ratio, and that means essentially 38 students per housing unit, and so on throughout And the reason we break this down this way is because when we're estimating enrollment from new development or future enrollment, plan development, this makes a big difference because we want to look at things that are similar to what is currently being built.

[00:35:36] If we look at that detached in townhouse, you can see there's significantly different ratios between older types of units and the newer types of units that we see. If you look at multifamily, which is on the right-hand side of the screen, we see a big change or big difference between garden style and meat rise and a big change between rental apartments.

[00:36:04] So this becomes real important when you try to figure out student enrollment from all this new construction that's being built. So including this, this is last year's number, but I'm including it because this is where the other slides relate to.

[00:36:24] This is the chart that we come up every year. This is the revised chart that we use for the common types of new developments that we see. So when we get a development application this year, we try to apply the appreciates to it.

[00:36:40] Again, this changes every year. But that big one right there, apartment at .115, that's essentially what we're forecasting for new rental apartment developments, and that's really the big type of trouble now, and it means that there's about 11 or 12 students.

[00:37:01] These are the caveats. There's always caveats. They're important to talk about. But really the most important one here is that these ratios change over time.

[00:37:17] And, again, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see these changing possibly significantly in the next few years, you know, as we go through some of those changes. Just don't know. I wish we did. Okay, so new development, this kind of sets the stage for discussing specific new developments.

[00:37:43] This chart is in the City Packbook, if you're not familiar with the Packbook, it's a great resource. I've shared this with the school board before as well, but this is updated with current information, so this is actually newer than what you would find in the Packbook.

[00:38:00] And this shows the number of housing units that have been built here in Fairfax City by a decade, and the type of units that are built, townhouse, detached, multifamily, and so on. And that type is what's really important for us as far as looking for students in that.

[00:38:20] These two on the right, on the far right, these are the important ones because these show housing units that have either been built in the last decade or have been approved by city council but have not yet been built.

[00:38:41] That one on the far right, that's the housing units that are currently under construction or have been approved by city council. I know you all can't see the labels, but that's the far right one. What's startling here is that column that's the second from the right, that's this current decade.

[00:39:03] It's really half a decade, and we can see that that number is more in terms of units than we've seen since the 1960s, and we're only halfway through. There's a big emphasis on multifamily, so you can see that most of those new columns are orange.

[00:39:22] Now, there are some projects in there that are non-student generated, so the Plattson University, which is aimed mostly at college students, and then we have a senior housing facility that's being built now, So they're hashed off there, but still, I mean, you see that orange, I mean, that's a lot of construction.

[00:39:43] We've seen our number of housing units in the city increase by 15% just in this app. That's a, any way you look at it, it's very basic. So all of that material there in that far right column, that's the approved projects.

[00:40:04] So that's what we'll be focusing on for the rest of this presentation. And also others that haven't yet been heard or been approved as well. And all of those are shown in this map, as well as some that have already been built.

[00:40:24] And this shows all residential projects that have either already been approved, and see the key on the right there, it says approved, filed, or potential. Those potential projects, those have been discussed at some kind of a public meeting, so either a planning commission or city council, usually a work session, to talk about a developer's ideas for a certain site.

[00:40:55] And down there at the bottom, you see the color key as far as telling you whether it's detached townhouses. Look around the city and where all of these are. This is a tremendous amount of information, So it'll make it a lot more digestible when I go through each one of these projects and explain it a little bit and explain what the current status is.

[00:41:23] These two are the most interesting developments to talk about we've seen. Yes. Mr. Foreman, Ms. Hickman, go ahead. Sorry, can I just really fast? So in May, you provided us with a really helpful map of very similar to this, but it had the breakdown of the number of students expected to be yielded out of each of those.

[00:41:44] Is it possible to get an updated version of that? Is that what's at the end of this presentation? Maybe I'm just jumping ahead. They're under each potential, and it looks like, yes, there is a chart. A similar version.

[00:42:00] Okay. Yeah, because I'm seeing some pretty significant differences between last May and this one. I mean, it didn't even have Gatewood Plaza at all last May. So there's been enough changes that I think would be really interesting. Like the botanist seems to be new.

[00:42:17] Yeah, the botanist was there last year. It was called something else. I have no idea what the botanist means. Was it Willowood? Willowood. Okay, so it's just changed names. Okay. But, I mean, Gatewood Plaza with 334 units. Right. I would be really interesting to see, if you don't mind, or even just, I guess you have it here.

[00:42:38] Okay, it's just a different format. I'll compare and contrast. Thank you. Okay. And if there's anything else that you need, for some reason, if I provided something in May that's more helpful than this? It's a very beautiful chart. Love it again. And I'll get to it in a little bit, but that Gatewood Plaza development, right now they're proposing mostly one-bedroom units.

[00:43:01] so it wouldn't be the kind of generation you can see. That can change. Seems to be, yeah, changing. Anything else before I move? I had one more, I'm sorry. Oh, that's... No, go ahead.

[00:43:17] Okay, page, slide seven for the student generation. I know we've talked about this for a couple of years now and actually you just alluded to it. It does seem that the one bedrooms, we're getting more students out. I mean, Fairfax Square is a great example. More students than the yield predictions are showing Is there discussion on changing these numbers?

[00:43:40] Really, you know, as far as yield projections for new development, we look mostly at that newer type housing unit. So Fairfax Square being the garden apartment, nobody's proposing to build garden apartments any longer.

[00:43:56] I mean, if they were, we would use them. Sorry, scat on the circle. Scat on the circle produced more students than we ever expected. And so I'm wondering if that is going to affect the numbers that are being used to predict. It does. So the way that we come up with this is to reach that 0.115, I average our apartments, so in this case, Scalp and the Point of Fairfax, with five or six others that are surrounding the city that are similar in type.

[00:44:32] So that mid-rise kind of five-story urban format type of apartment. And the ones that surround, a bunch of them are districted to Fairfax High School. And even the ones that are not are just close enough to us to really be a comparable.

[00:44:51] So I'd like to build up more than just two as a comparable. So that 52 number actually does get factored into that. I think that Scout in the Circle was the highest of all of those six or seven that I used comparables, but that did concur.

[00:45:10] Okay, and then I guess it's a similar question to the detached style that seems to be actually yielding less than it did in past years, especially with the birth rates going down and the housing costs being so high that I'm not sure, you know, it almost feels like they're kind of leveling out a little bit.

[00:45:27] Yeah. So you're looking at all that. Yeah. Okay. Just a clarifying point, when you average those similar units together, Scout in the Circle and surrounding, are you noticing the same output of student ratio coming from those? I just worry that we might be having more students in our city ones versus the county surrounding, and that might be a lower output, which is lowering that average.

[00:45:49] I'm just curious what you... I'm really curious to see this year, because last year we had two new style apartments. We had Scout in the Point of Fairfax. The point for Fairfax was a little bit lower than the Comparable Scout was a little bit higher.

[00:46:04] They tend to jump around the lot because of the rentals and let in and let out. And the same, it's not just ours. I mean, it's the same as the other four or five as well. So I'm curious this year, now that that point development has been fully leased for over a year, I'm really curious to know what the year will be to see if our city apartments are actually higher.

[00:46:32] Ms. Kelsey, Ms. Barlamay, do you guys have any questions? Thank you. Yeah, so these are our two, and this is pretty much what we've just been talking about, so you can see that that scout ratio of 0.13 is higher than that 0.115 that we talked about, so I'm awfully curious to see what that's going to be this year.

[00:46:58] Because that went up from, I think, 45 the year before. Yeah. They're as comparable in cost. Yeah, they are. Well, to an extent, because it doesn't point have more, it's a little bit.

[00:47:15] more expensive I think. I think so. Yeah. Same general, same class. When apartments are rated as a class, I don't know if they do it by stars or class A, B or C, we're the same. Boulevard 6 is the other development that's pretty much fully built that we've seen come online just within the last year. It's an interesting development. It has a few single family homes, mostly townhouses

[00:47:54] and condos. The condos are interesting because there you can see that big difference between condominium and apartment. That was mostly leased or mostly occupied last year. We only got two students from over 137 occupied units. If that was a rental apartment, we'd see, I don't know, a dozen or 15 students from there. So big, big difference between condos and rental apartments.

[00:48:25] Those townhouses, that's about right where we'd expect them to be. We had nine students from about 90 occupied units. I'd expect that number to go off as more of those units were occupied. I'd expect it to level off. But this is almost entirely occupied now, or as a better understanding of that.

[00:48:53] And there's a few other developments that are under construction right now. So this one on the left, Norfax. This consists of two parts. So this is the one with the senior housing component. And in addition to that, it's got a section of 56 towns.

[00:49:11] So last year, there were only a handful of them occupied at the beginning of the school year. This year, most of them are occupied. So I'd expect at full build-out and full stabilization, I'd expect 10. Also, there's a small development on West Drive that's known as Pocket Place.

[00:49:34] This has been on our slideshow for the last several years, and it never seems to get started, but this year it actually did. Some of these are occupied, fully occupied, pretty soon just a handful. And the other one that's currently under construction, this is an interesting one, too.

[00:49:58] It's now called Overlook at Fairfax Boulevard. This is where the Fairfax Garden Apartments used to be and Eastway Motel. So it's interesting for two reasons. It's an unusual mix because it has townhouses and those two-over-two piggyback-style condominiums.

[00:50:18] And also interesting because it replaced Fairfax Garden Apartments, which is there on the right, and that was a lower-income apartment complex that generated a whole lot of students for its size. So even though this has been redeveloped with something like three times as many housing units, we've actually seen a deep enrollment from it.

[00:50:40] So kind of the opposite effect that you tend to think of the new development going on there. It was partially occupied as of September, so I'd expect a few students from here this year, probably a few more next year, probably talking about it.

[00:51:00] There were about 30. So these are the units under construction. We can move on and talk about the approved units. So most big developments in Fairfax need city council approval in some form or another to be approved.

[00:51:22] And it's important to keep in mind because sometimes, and these have all been approved, but the next round of them that we'll talk about are those that are potential. And sometimes you hear of a potential project and you think that it's an absolute certainty, but it's not necessarily because city council has to okay it.

[00:51:41] and we actually did see a project that got denied this year, a project that was on our slideshow from last year, Courthouse Plaza Shopping Center. So the owner, the developer of Courthouse Plaza intended to tear down part of the shopping center and add 350 apartments or so.

[00:52:03] It'll probably come back in another form. We've seen a number of developments that have done that. Just to let you know. But these projects here that say approved, they have, in fact, received city council approval.

[00:52:20] So this is one. What a name, the botanist. I can't explain it. Highlight all the trees in the city. Yeah, there's six of them. Yes. More to come.

[00:52:36] That's right. When it's fully stabilized, they'll be eight. So from everything I can tell, this looks like a standard apartment complex, typical unit mix. It has 6% affordable units, which is the typical rate for approved apartments.

[00:52:59] So I'd apply the standard ratio here, about 0.115, you know, about 30 students or so. The second one, do you have a question? I do. Is that replacing another?

[00:53:17] No, that's new, so that is added, if you're familiar with the Willowood office complex, they're actually building this in one of the apartments. Okay, so the complex behind it that feeds into Providence will remain there? Yes. Okay. Yes.

[00:53:33] And they broke ground there, it looks like, in the last month or so, maybe a few weeks. Yeah, they have it fenced off, construction, that kind of thing. That's good to know. It's a road I never travel on, so the whole thing can be built. Good to know that.

[00:53:52] Any other members real quick? And really, that estimate of 30 students, that kind of makes me sweat looking at that because I've just got a feeling that it looks accurate from right now and what we've been seeing at Scalp and Point, but we'll see.

[00:54:09] Yeah, I wonder if it is going to be more because right across the street is Amazon Fresh, restaurants. I mean, it's right along a major artery. It seems like a prime place to rent an apartment. So if you, this is one of those projects that has kept coming back and back and follow city council meetings.

[00:54:33] You've probably seen this come up to city council a half dozen times or so. This is the Davies property, which is, it's a two-acre property that now contains a big old White House right across from Judicial Pride on Chambered Road.

[00:54:51] There have been a number of proposals for this site, and in July, city council did approve this one. So it's 276 departments. Again, pretty standard ratio of unit mix and that 6% of affordable units.

[00:55:07] So I would project about the same thing. Eric, do you notice any increase in families utilizing those affordable units? I've tried to match up the affordable addresses with the students, and I haven't been successful at that because I think the affordable units can actually jump around within the building as they become occupied.

[00:55:32] So it's awfully tough to tell. I would assume the answer is yes. Everything that we've seen that has shown that affordable units have probably twice the student generation. This is an interesting contrast that this was approved two years ago.

[00:55:58] You know, there hasn't been any activity on this, and I really wouldn't be surprised. I have it listed as delayed down there. I wouldn't be that surprised if this gets shuffled off into that latent hall category of things that they never built. But it's still out there.

[00:56:14] It's been entitled, which means that the developer can start at any time. But it's an interesting contrast because it's proposed as condo units, and if it does actually come to fruition, this is a pretty big building, but we really see pretty minimal students from this if it does get.

[00:56:34] But it is an interesting contrast. Again, it shows that condo ratio and how that varies. This is also an approved project, it's townhouses.

[00:56:49] This was approved a few years ago, 13 townhouses on about an acre of commercial land in the Westmore neighborhood. Fairly standard for townhouses, not too many of them, so we would expect about one student per five housing units, so two, three, four students or so.

[00:57:09] And these are market-grade housing, so this is an affordable complex, but affordable townhouses tend to generate a whole lot of student enrollment, and this is one of them that's been approved.

[00:57:25] So this project is affiliated with Habitat for Humanity. It was approved a few years ago. I think Brown was working on this this year on the site of Fairfax Presbyterian Church. So it's 10 units.

[00:57:43] We had talked here at the school board a few years ago about student generation from affordable housing. You know, we kind of settle on that double market rate. But honest, double market rate gets you four to five, four or five students here.

[00:57:59] I would expect more of that. I'd estimate or so. But that is under construction now.

[00:58:14] I'm not sure that we'd see occupancy for next year, but certainly. So those are all approved. So with the exception of that one condo project that's been delayed, these are all going to see fruition in a few years.

[00:58:34] These are those that have been filed recently. So this is probably the majority of what you were talking about, about new things that have appeared on this map. I haven't seen before. Now, these all have been talked about publicly, so either in a city council or a planning commission meeting, but these have not been approved yet by city council.

[00:58:57] And again, it's important to keep in mind that these may change before a final hearing. They may be withdrawn. The property owner may come to the conclusion that whatever they propose doesn't make sense. But city council does have discretion on these, so they may approve them.

[00:59:16] They may deny them. I just want to mention that because I don't want to give the false impression that all of these are going to approve. So I won't dwell on the details of these, but we'll just talk about general types of these projects.

[00:59:31] This one on the left here, this is proposed for the building near Fairfax Circle that used to be Monty Plaza, which is the grocery store. So it's a commercial to residential project. From a policy perspective, that's kind of a lightning rod these days because the municipalities want to keep as much commercial space as possible, not see commercial space turned over to residential.

[01:00:00] So this is a little bit, I don't want to say controversial, but it kind of is for that reason. It's a ten-story building. It's what's been proposed. 261 apartments. It's got a relatively small footprint. It's so high. So that's that. And then over here on the right is that Gatewood Plaza that we had talked about.

[01:00:27] This is another one of those commercial to residential buildings. The owner of the office building that's there now has proposed tearing down the office building and building this structure of 300-some apartment units.

[01:00:44] Right now, they're proposing mostly one-bedroom units. If it actually gets built as mostly one-bedroom units, you really see not all that much impact. What I have here is five, and that's kind of a rough guess, figuring that the generation becomes smaller.

[01:01:06] Just keep in mind, I mean, this could easily change going in any direction. It could be withdrawn if the developer doesn't see a whole lot of city council interest in it. It may be changed to some other kind of house.

[01:01:24] From a real estate perspective, it's tough right now because the developers are seeing demand for residential and not that. That's what's going on. This is small by comparison, 14 townhouses at the Mantua Professional Park.

[01:01:53] And these are potential projects, as in they've just been talked about kind of briefly, at City Council. And these are all relatively new. On the left here, this is at the Fairfax Boulevard and Chambridge Road intersection on the gas station properties.

[01:02:15] And the current proposal is for $270. apartment complexes, apartment units. If it's built that way, I'd estimate that there. The one in the center, this is just a recently discussed project by the owners of Fairfax Square.

[01:02:39] So Fairfax Square is the, it's both an apartment complex and an office, has an office component as well. It's on Main Street right across from Workstation. So if you can picture the whole, the commercial component is kind of up front.

[01:03:02] It has a five- or six-story building and a bunch of kind of low-slung buildings as well. The developer or the property owner proposes to demolish most of the commercial component. To clarify for that section, that would be in front of the current Fairfax Square Apartments?

[01:03:30] Or like right to the left of it, it wouldn't replace them? It would not replace the existing apartments, so the apartments are both behind and, if you're looking at it, behind and to the right. So it would be in addition to what's already there?

[01:03:46] In addition to the residential that's already there, so it would replace, and that's another one of these commercial to residential projects, and they do have a little bit of commercial, and they've got about 15,000 square feet of commercial space, but essentially it's a commercial to residential.

[01:04:03] Thank you. So it'll be interesting to see how City Council handles these because there's a lot of these commercial projects there. So to go off of Ms. Hickman's, the 300 apartment units, is that new?

[01:04:20] That's new. Okay, so it's not counting the current existing. Right, so currently there's 500 apartments in that complex, so this would add 300. Now this one to the right, it's called Christopher at Fairfax.

[01:04:40] I have it listed as potential. The developer may have actually filed it. They seem intent on doing so, so if they haven't done it, they probably will in the next few weeks. This is a developer who's assembling a bunch of properties along Chainbridge Road, just south of Old Town, kind of across Chainbridge Road.

[01:05:03] So if you can picture where that Davies property is, these are the next properties down there. Right now, it's a 257 department unit, so I'd say, again, that's in about the student category, assuming that they're a typical mix of type two.

[01:05:31] And again, replacing commercial with residential. This is replacing commercial. Okay, so all of these are. Right, so this is replacing office buildings. So just keep in mind with all of these, especially these potential projects, those are the details that are starting to change.

[01:05:51] This is a perennial slide. I never have to change this here. But I've got to mention it because it carries just a whole lot of student impact. This was approved in 2013, so that's 12 years ago.

[01:06:08] I mean, it gets entitled and then the developer can pick up it any time. How often does that entitlement occur? And what is that resetting period like? It doesn't happen very often.

[01:06:28] So typically one of these projects is valid for two years. What they did is they did a very minimal amount of site work on the project. And doing that minimal, and I don't even remember what it was, it was like creating a sidewalk.

[01:06:45] I mean, it was something really minimal. But that was enough to say that they started the project so they could pick it up at any time. Now, the thing is, they have to build exactly what's approved. They can't deviate. If they want to deviate, they'd have to go back for city council.

[01:07:04] I mean, it's been so long. I mean, whatever it was that was approved by not even being passionate anymore. Eventually, it would take more sense. They could pick it up at any time.

[01:07:21] And honestly, with the apartment market being like it is now, I'm surprised they haven't seen it. Especially with everything that's being built around that. Right. Yeah. We'll see that again next year.

[01:07:39] And now we're ready for those concluding slides. These really summarize what we talked about, but without the graphics and with some of that expected fuel added up.

[01:07:57] Hopefully this will kind of tie things together and do a good quick reference. So this looks at those projects that would probably be occupied in the next year. Not a whole lot of them because Northbacks and Overlook are already kind of partially occupied.

[01:08:14] I'd say next year we'd have an additional five to eight units. It's a little bit more as we move along. So these are developments that have been approved by city council.

[01:08:33] And I'd say that these are likely to appear within the next five years. Various stages of being under construction, but let's say five years from now, I think we can look at about 70 net new students from these complexes.

[01:08:54] So these are already approved by city council, so I think there's a really good chance that we'll see the units and also see the... And I should mention, that far right column is the elementary school district.

[01:09:18] And these are those potential developments, longer lists, and again, you'll notice that the vast majority of these are apartment problems. That's where the developer interest is. That's where the city development plans are leading developers to building apartments.

[01:09:37] That's what you see here. And raise up over 100 students as far as enrollment companies, assuming that they're built as we kind of anticipate and also assuming that that yield ratio stays broadly.

[01:09:54] It could go in either direction. That is that as far as the development overviews. Answer any questions, then I can go on to the secret slides at the end of the boundary maps.

[01:10:17] Absolutely. Any questions? I'll start on this. Ms. Bartle, might you have any questions? No, not right now. Okay. Ms. Kelsey? Yeah, I have two. On a lot of the apartments, like the pictures that are on here, it's showing retail at the bottom.

[01:10:37] Is that how most of them are being presented as well as the retail on the bottom and the residential on top? Right, and the reason is that that is, for most of these, for all of these except for Fairfax Square, they're located in what the city terms activity centers, which are places that the city wants to see developed into kind of this urban type environment.

[01:11:03] And those activity center guidelines pretty much say you should have retail on the ground floor. We always, I shouldn't say always, frequently get pushback from developers on that. The botanists, these people really didn't want to pull in there.

[01:11:25] And I can't remember how much retail is included. There may be 10,000 square feet or so. Most of them are a little bit more, you know, 15,000, maybe up to 20,000 square feet in that area.

[01:11:40] That's kind of the fashionable thing to do. Fairfax Square, even though it's not in one of those activity centers, they also have approved. And then my other question is, once they are approved, because I know you said a couple of them are saying they're going to be one-bedroom apartments.

[01:12:00] Right. So once they've been approved by city council, let's say they start to build and they're realizing the outcome of other places and they see one-bedroom apartments doesn't make sense. Can they change it to two-bedroom, three-bedroom type thing, or is it they have to go back to city council?

[01:12:17] I think, I'll check on this and make sure that I'm correct about this. I think they can shuffle it around, but they can't have more units. And part of the reason is parking, for instance, is based on the number of units. There's a little bit of shuffling they can do without triggering something being out of compliance.

[01:12:37] So you could have less units, though? I think they could have less units. Which would be more kids. Which would be more kids. But it is. The bigger thing that could be changed after approval is a switch from condos to apartments because these are approved as physical development, not the ownership type.

[01:13:08] And with fiscal impact studies, that's always made me nervous because if developers catch wind of the fact that condos are much, much more favorable fiscally than apartments, there's nothing preventing them from saying, oh, we're building condos, and then getting approved and saying, oh, well, the condo market tank is going to make these apartments, and there's nothing, nothing.

[01:13:32] Is it good? I have one comment and one thing for Dan. Mr. Phillips, so one question. I know in the past we've asked this question, I'm going to ask again. How does the county, you know, the things that are happening in the county and the buildings that are happening there, and how is that impacting what's within our boundaries further west?

[01:13:58] Most of what's going on is within the city. So there are two, and I think I presented these at the spring meeting, there are two apartment complexes that have been approved in the Fairfax and Catherine Johnson portion of Fairfax County.

[01:14:14] I haven't kept track of those to see if they're being built yet, so I'll do that. Okay. Thank you. And I don't even know if they're, with the small changes in boundaries, if they'll even affect us anymore. I can't remember. I feel like they were a little bit in the West. They, I think they're still within our boundary.

[01:14:31] The major change, I'll get to the major, the potentially major, major change, I'm sure you don't have. Okay. And then I know for a while we were getting emails about, like, if there were any changes or updates. Mr. Plattenberg about some of these buildings are you still getting those okay okay so I wasn't sure if you had fallen off of them or if they're just not being sent out or right so just maybe worth at least put checking on the radar to see if you fill off those emails somehow I will check to make

[01:15:08] sure that we're still okay and it'll be sent to Dr. Wright yeah and some of them weren't always the the most helpful, but I think every so often there was one that was really good information. So you're talking about the planning department sending you information and asking for comments?

[01:15:27] Not necessarily. Well, we get the... I have been getting... Oh, so you still get those? Just the update, most of the county that I've seen recently, of the potential filing that would impact one of our four schools. Is this something that Brooke Harden sends? No. They were coming from Albert Frederick.

[01:15:45] Okay. All right, we'll check. i have i'm sorry just go ahead i just wanted one thing just for the record quick calculation here it looks like you did the same one um it looks like so currently we've got potentially 32 students for daniel's run for those that have already been approved 85 for providence and if these other potential developments get approved brings us up to 135 new students for daniel's run and 120 for providence so pretty significant numbers there yeah thank you actually i'm going to clear before i

[01:16:24] passed off from Ms. Barnum, just because they're zoned there doesn't mean that we're going to get elementary kids 100% and it's 120, 135 kids within two to three years in the schools. That's where they're zoned. They could be at KJ or Fairfax, but still that's still a substantial amount of students. Even if I split that 10 students per grade, that's still a significant class size increase. So Ms. Barnum. I have two questions. Last time you talked a little bit about development into the, like, donut hole that Fairfax County owns.

[01:17:00] Right. And I was just curious if you have more information about that. I do not. As far as I know, Fairfax County is still recommending an affordable housing complex on what's now known as the Burkholder Center now.

[01:17:16] So I haven't seen those plans go forward, and I haven't seen them exactly sure. Would that communication go through your office, too, just so, or, I mean, really that's something we probably should i mean we absolutely should be aware of too just want to make sure that i'll check with our planning director and see if he knows data i think the jurisdictions are required when when a property is that close ordering another jurisdiction i think they're required to let someone know what's going on so i'll check with even just thinking about

[01:17:56] transportation and impact on roads i mean like that's not our purview that city council's right but um and that's why i asked that question um and of course that will definitely if that happens that will definitely impact our schools too if if they're zoned for our schools so i i will i'll check with our planning director and i'll let mr and then i had one other question um what is the

[01:18:27] what is the rationale for the pushback on from the developer yeah uh and they they say with with With the rock in this building, they said that since they're not on a major road, that they don't get as much through traffic or pass-by traffic, so commercial space wouldn't be viable there.

[01:18:53] I'm not quite sure. I think it just boils down to it's tougher to fill commercial space right now. They want as little help as it is. Any go-backs?

[01:19:10] All right. Continue on with your browner at these. So these are, in case you're curious, this is the chart. regional demographics and this is dark blue this is northern Virginia as a whole, this dark blue is foreign migration and this is direct from other countries so this isn't people who immigrate to the US, spend two years somewhere and then move to northern Virginia

[01:19:49] this is directly from another country so this is domestic migration so you can see since about 2014 there's been more people this is the zero line there's been more people moving out green is natural increase so it's births minus deaths so that's been positive you can see it going down that's the reduction in birth rate it's that dark blue that's foreign migration and you can see over the last three years that has been and there's zero right there

[01:20:27] so that's accounted for all of the region's population increase so if this number here is reduced then that would have a lot of demographic facts. That might be part of what's going on demographically.

[01:20:46] This chart, I got this. I actually didn't do the calculations for this myself. This comes from the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. It's on their website. We do put it in our fact book each year as well. It's an interesting story.

[01:21:09] Okay, boundary review. So I've been a part of Fairfax County Boundary Review Committee I'm not quite sure what to say I'm a little bit perplexed because this you know they started off saying Fairfax County hasn't cleared its boundaries and left in 40 years and boundaries don't make any sense we need to make these wholesale changes and then after 8 months of meeting they're proposing like 1.5% of students go to leave this school or something it's like oh my god

[01:21:48] why'd you do this? So it's been an interesting process. Somewhere along the line, they said that they wanted to eliminate what they call attendance islands.

[01:22:05] Attendance islands being part of an attendance boundary that's separated from the rest, and they classified this whole thing here as an attendance island. And I told the superintendent, I said, nobody thinks of this as an island. It's like a continent. It's so big.

[01:22:22] And nobody who lives in here thinks that their kid's education would be better if it was just connected, you know, like by an Israel. I mean, it's ridiculous. And I said that at one of these meetings, and of course it didn't make any.

[01:22:39] So what they had proposed doing was shifting all of this stuff in the middle to Fairfax and Katherine Johnson, which would increase our enrollment and make us over capacity.

[01:22:55] So chair pitches had a whole exchange with the superintendent in Fairfax. It still didn't make a difference. I wound up talking with them, got another letter written, and it's been eight months of going to meetings and satisfied because at least I did something.

[01:23:19] It sounds like parents are quite happy with keeping that there. When those who came to the boundary night were very happy with seeing this sort of return back to normal. Yeah, and it also had some other weird impacts because some of these schools would wind up being created as split feeders, which now would not, and that's also not desired.

[01:23:44] It's off the table. We're hoping it stays off. So for right now, there's two changes that have been proposed in this scenario for where they're at now. So the first one is this area just to the north of Providence, which is here.

[01:24:00] So here we are at Providence. So right now, this area here is districted to Providence, Katherine Johnson, and Fairfax. It is proposed to be shifted to Oakden. I think the only reason this is the case is because one of the representatives for the Fairfax High School Pyramid lives here and kept inserting that as a recommendation.

[01:24:32] And she did it enough that it, because if you've been tracking the whole thing, This popped up in scenario four, and it was never talked about, and that's why. So this would wind up being districted to Oakton High School, Oakton Elementary, Thoreau, and Oakton.

[01:24:51] Did you say on that earlier thing that Oakton and High School have the highest increase in population? Yes. So now they're expanding. I mean, I know they just expanded. I didn't think that the consultants would wind up doing that for this reason, Because it seems that Oakton already has capacity problems.

[01:25:14] Like just evinuation. And I know Chair Pitches is concerned about this because this tends to be a relatively high-income demographic area. So we would take a lot of that population out of property.

[01:25:32] I agree with that. And I'm curious because when you also look at, say, Willowcross Apartments, which are not far, I mean, I think they're closer to, I believe, Oakdale Elementary, right?

[01:25:50] You're talking about the apartment. Yeah, exactly. They would be closer to Oakdale Elementary, just going right up 123, versus those neighborhoods, which is, I think, they're a three-minute drive to Providence. And so I'm fascinated by that choice for that neighborhood to shift out of this pocket, but not necessarily students who are closer shifting over to Oakdale Elementary.

[01:26:15] It's because they had an advocate. I know. Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. I appreciate you emphasizing that. Right. Yeah. Interesting. Now, the future development angle, which is what I kind of alluded to earlier, a lot of this area here, I think it's the Flint Hill Office Park or something, is slated for residential development.

[01:26:43] So that'll happen, and part of the reason I'm perplexed about some of the things with the boundary study is it didn't seem to be taken into account future development. So I'm not sure anybody's aware that by doing this, they're going to be increasing pressure even further on Oakton.

[01:27:03] This is also at a date. That is Oakmont Park now. Yeah. Yes, it's no longer Oakmont. Oh, is that right? Yes. That's interesting. Oh, is that one of those naming changes? Yeah. We've got an old map here. so this is one the other is here so this will make more sense so this is the Fairfax High School boundary this is Chantilly High School so this is Fairlakes Parkway there's an area I'll zoom in now

[01:27:41] so this is Fairlakes Parkway this is the shopping complexes so this area here which is mostly townhouses is being proposed to be shifted into Chantilly High School I don't know much about the rationale behind this, other than geography, because it's close, but that is the...

[01:28:06] So could they be making some of these changes, because where is the new high school that they bought? Like, where is that that they bought? Oh, my goodness. That's the other thing. Like, I know there's... So throughout this process, people started asking that at the beginning.

[01:28:27] Is the new high school going to be factored into that? And we were told, well, you know, we weren't sure if the new high school would be a general high school or if it would be a T.J. West or something. And the rationale was we're just going to go ahead and continue with this because it's so important.

[01:28:45] So I don't know exactly where on the map it is, but that has not been taken into it. Because I was going to say, I thought it affected, like, Chantilly High School and, like, some of that. And that's why I wonder if they're giving more to Chantilly now, thinking maybe those kids will shift.

[01:29:03] It's in Oakton, too. Yeah, it would be in Oakton, too. Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, especially since they don't know when it's paying attention or where. So I guess my question is, why leave that little point on the upper left side?

[01:29:21] Like, why are we – you see what I'm saying? Like, it's kind of – there's still this one area that almost is up there and then also to the bottom, like, on the left of the hole of the orange. like a puzzle piece yeah down here no that like puzzle piece up there so you oh yeah what is that it's it's a lot of apartments yeah but it's interesting because it almost looks like it splits when i looked at google maps it's almost like splitting an apartment complex so why not well actually i looked at that um on the left hand side like if you sort of created the circle around that right one purple one pink if you split in half right the purple side is apartments

[01:29:57] and if i look remember correctly the left side is condos okay and on the other side of fair lakes those are all condos that are now removed right which almost feels like it's the same point that there's probably an advocate somewhere around there that were able to advocate for their kids to be going to greenbriar east or west i forget which direction um but i'm curious about the bussing routes because if the whole prime purpose of redrawing these boundaries right is to reduce busing i'm i'm curious about that section there like what what's the busing look like for those

[01:30:31] kids you know so i i don't know i i know the transportation has been they've had representatives at these meetings but it hasn't seemed to me that the focus has been on interesting right and i'm also curious about what this change will do to the demographics of kj and fairfax high school right um and how that will increase or decrease can i just point out one thing to you that i want to have on your radar the next meeting is december 10th if i'm correct the next meeting of the boundary committee yes it's in two days okay but they'll present they're not presenting the next

[01:31:03] scenario till december right so when we were at the meeting at fairfax high school um if you go back to like where that willow springs area was that was brought back to fairfax once they decided not to move that little island right the consultant that was there and i still we think he was probably misinformed or confused but he did mention pulling that bottom part of willow springs back over to woodson and there was at least one person on the phone advocating for that to happen just want to put it on your radar because that would then create a split reader for willow

[01:31:40] springs it would completely change the demographics of fairfax so if you don't mind just kind of keeping that on your radar okay because i think there was a reason it was moved back and chair pitches helped support the families from those that cobs corner right but my understanding was somebody from colchester acres down there was pretty adamant about wanting to move over to woodson okay so just so it's on your radar i will keep an eye out for that you can't rest with this

[01:32:13] stuff no you have to stay on top of it and to highlight a point that i emphasize here at least in the city of fairfax your boundaries for the middle school and high school do not change you are always you know where you're going for middle school and high school and you're in the city of Fairfax so that's a great perk and the elementary school boundaries don't change but these boundaries are supposed to be changing every five years within the county side of FCPS so Eric in the end like do you think they will make these changes I mean they will implement these changes and if they do it's only the 1.5% that's all they're going to do

[01:32:51] I would assume so and then they'll change again with the new high school Yes. Within the five year old. Yes. Do we know how many are impacted? We do.

[01:33:09] And I think that number, this is the website. I don't know if you've looked at that website. I think that. It was under like 3,000 students. Like it wasn't. Oh, no.

[01:33:25] She meant in our area. Oh, in our area. It's in this specific area. I'm trying to think. Are you sure? 24, I want to say they said. I was going to say. 25. Yeah. Yeah, I know we have it in the material that they gave us at the meetings. I'm not sure that it's at there.

[01:33:41] I'll check that for you. Right, and I don't think they, I don't remember that we got the number for that smaller little section. I'll check on both of them and at the meeting in two days. If I can't find it, then I'll get it. On the Boundary Review Scenario Explorer, when you click on the school that you want to look at and see the capacity changes, the current program capacity of Fairfax High School is 2,400 students.

[01:34:10] Under Scenario 4, which is what you have highlighted here, is 2,297 for the anticipated enrollment, and that utilization is 95%. Okay, so that would account for both of those, at least on the high school level. If we look at Providence, Providence will tell you what that northern section would be.

[01:34:34] Yeah, I can click on Providence. For Providence, the current capacity is 297, and the anticipated enrollment under scenario four is 888 and a 91% utilization. 888 and a 91% – wait, what was it?

[01:34:52] It was 972, so nearly 100 students drop. Wow. Yeah. That's a big – But that's not the number they presented. because they presented exactly how many it was really like 24 25 students so i'm curious where why these numbers aren't lining up in scenario three it was 93 1 9 38 um and that's that's a like a 40 student difference between but then that would have been very misleading from what

[01:35:26] could you find that number of course yeah that's it that's a huge shift it is big i wonder if they're there are some apartments right there right and that's um that little alcove near oakden um aren't there apart their apartments across from oakmonts yeah yeah not a hundred students but those those neighborhoods are huge um no those are office buildings so where the circle is like right across from go down by the one part right there yeah there's

[01:36:04] there's apartments like through there those though do not um they do have some because that's right across from where i work and they do have some kids i've seen but it's mostly older age kids not younger age and um they are mostly that live in there the people i know that live in there are younger families that don't have children are just starting to have their families so um i don't know that that's that many children now if you come down where it says fairfax acres that there are

[01:36:37] some homes in that family homes and they do have more children there's there's a lot of both so i mean yeah it's it's probably more of those homes right there the single family homes probably have well and then you also have the other side of germantown right there oh yeah there's all those condos right there well no where flint hill is you have um a bunch of single family homes and

[01:37:10] townhomes in there you know and they do i remember seeing the buses there yeah any follow-up questions just thank you for advocating for us and being on this committee we very much appreciate it yeah no i i was glad that i mean like i said after all of those meetings that i was finally able to do it was gratifying so we're glad to help okay thank you thank you so much

[01:37:44] mr foreman any any last questions before we close all right so if there's nothing else We will adjourn the meeting at 8.08 p.m.

[01:38:00] Miss Pitches will be proud.

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