Coraggio Consulting
Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Economic Initiatives Committee, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Date: Tuesday, March 11, 2025
Place: Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, Virginia
Length: 1h 27m (video)
Official meeting video (Fairfax County): https://video.fairfaxcounty.gov/player/clip/3724
Official Board of Supervisors page (Fairfax County): https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/boardofsupervisors/

Machine transcript (speech-to-text) produced by Coraggio Consulting. Not an official county record. Names and numbers may be misspelled; check the video at the timestamp before quoting.
Speech-to-text: whisper.cpp, model large-v3-turbo. Produced 2026-10-30. Timestamps are [HH:MM:SS] into the meeting video.

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[00:00:17] I'm just going to cover them. Thank you all. We're going to go ahead and get started. I'm Dan Stork. I'm the district representative and chair of the Economic Initiatives Committee. And we've got a lot on the plate here today, so we want to get moving. And first and foremost, I wanted to see if anybody had any questions on the previous meeting summary.

[00:00:38] Any questions on the previous meeting summary? There are a couple items in there that I know were for follow-up, so I would urge the members to take a look at that and make sure that you, in fact, got the follow-up that was committed to. With that, I'm going to just make a couple comments to start off.

[00:00:57] First and foremost, the chairman and I have spent a fair amount of time talking about how do we respond to what's happening, frankly, across the river and ultimately around the country and even around the world, given the impacts of terrorists and other parts of that and USAID grant reductions, et cetera.

[00:01:16] We recognize that this has a major impact on Fairfax County, and we understand that we need to be as aware of what that is and how to respond to it. So the goals of today's meeting really are to, first and foremost, to understand the landscape that we're in and to identify potential responses and proposals.

[00:01:35] So we have really three parts of this. First off, we want to understand the federal government footprint in the county and the region and review the known data, and that is known data. There's a lot more that we'll know as we go along, I'm sure. The second part of it is to hear from the private sector and understand those impacts.

[00:01:54] And the final piece of this is to review the immediate responses and discuss what's next. We do have a follow-on meeting that we're planning for April 8th, and the agenda is probably to be determined, but we would expect to have federal representatives and others that would be part of that meeting.

[00:02:10] With that, I'm going to turn to the chairman, and he'll make a few comments, and I'll take it back, and we'll get started. Thank you very much, Supervisor Stork, and I want to thank our presenters today. I will say at the beginning of this that this is going to be a series of meetings. We're not going to address the totality of this impact in one meeting.

[00:02:29] We know that this is an evolution. Things are changing almost on a daily basis, so there's a lot of things we don't know. What we do know is what is happening in Washington, D.C. will absolutely undoubtedly have a seismic impact on Fairfax County.

[00:02:45] Make no mistake about it. I've said this repeatedly when you rely so heavily on federal grants and federal workforce and private sector contractors that support the federal government has become the bread and butter of our economy here in Northern Virginia. And so these cuts are devastating to our finances and they're devastating to this and have psychological impacts on so many

[00:03:10] of our residents. And so this is meeting one. We're going to set up a series of these where we're going to talk about other impacts because there are direct impacts to Fairfax County's budget, like the one I've repeatedly mentioned to folks, which is USAID funds our urban search and rescue team. So whether we continue to have an elite urban search and rescue team in Fairfax County will be determined based on who pays for that moving forward if USAID does not. So there are some direct, direct financial implications to the county. And then there's all the pieces that affect our economy. I will say I attended a resource fair, as some of my colleagues did,

[00:03:46] on Saturday hosted by Congressman Beyer. There were nearly 1,000 people who came out to that on a Saturday afternoon into the evening. And I will just say it was heartbreaking. These are highly sophisticated, highly educated, specialized, mission-driven public servants spending their Saturday afternoon walking around trying to figure out what their life is going to be like in the days ahead. It was heartbreaking and it was devastating. And so the impacts on

[00:04:21] this issue are far beyond just the pure economics to what I said before, mental health, psychological, direct financial impacts to Fairfax County's budget. There's a lot of pieces here to peel back and we're not intending to peel all of those back today, but we are intending to get a start into the conversation so that folks understand the totality and the magnitude of what is impacting us. And when I say folks, I mean not just our residents, but all of the other elected officials that represent Virginia, because Virginia is absolutely sitting there with concentric circles

[00:04:56] drawn around it. Make no mistake about it, unlike any other state, potentially, in terms of impact. And so this is an important statewide conversation to be having as well. And to that end, I will say I am grateful that Speaker Scott and apparently there's a Senate committee that also is going to be looking at the fiscal impacts to Virginia of what's happening in Washington, D.C.

[00:05:18] And while Fairfax will likely be the hardest hit jurisdiction in Virginia, there are significant impacts in Hampton Roads and other parts of Virginia as well. And so we're going to be directly engaging with those committees to make sure that, first and foremost, the impacts to Fairfax and Northern Virginia are clearly articulated to them.

[00:05:38] But we're not alone. There's other parts of Virginia that will be heavily impacted as well, which makes this, in my mind, the most important statewide issue we're dealing with. Finally, I wish everyone who was here for the last meeting was still staying here. Because the discussion that we just had about a potential meals tax, while it's an important discussion, is nowhere near in terms of magnitude the impacts that what is happening in Washington, D.C. will have on Fairfax County and Fairfax County's budget and our taxpayers at the end of the day.

[00:06:10] And so this is the most important conversation certainly we'll have today, and it will be a conversation that will continue for months and months to come as we look for future agendas and other topics to discuss on this. As I said, it's evolving almost every day. So I do want to thank our presenters today.

[00:06:27] They've been engaged in this really since day one. They've made a commitment to continue to stay engaged in this throughout the process, and there's a lot of stakeholders here involved, and we'll be bringing as many of them forward to talk about impacts to our board so that people can understand these things in the weeks and months and potentially years ahead.

[00:06:47] And so thank you for being here today for this kickoff, And we'll certainly come out relatively soon with future meeting dates that will continue this conversation. So thank you, Supervisor Stork. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I wanted to just mention I've had a conversation with David Bulba, who's chairing the Federal Workforce and Funding Reductions Committee, and they had their first meeting in Richmond.

[00:07:11] He and I have had some interactions. I know we have a lot more to do really to tie on to bring everybody together and learn more. And we have a very illustrious group of experts here today, and I'm very pleased to have you all here. First and foremost, I wanted to welcome Jennifer Miller to your first committee meeting, at least with the Economic Initiatives Committee, and thank you.

[00:07:31] And you get to get thrown into the fire with the rest of us, and I'm sure we're going to continue our focus on economic development and making Fairfax County the best county in the country. And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Rebecca Madre, and she's going to talk about our first meeting, which is our first item, which is the current landscape of federal layoffs and contract reductions. Thank you, Chairman Stork. So I'm actually going to briefly introduce all the speakers so we can kind of move through the agenda. So you have the agenda as well, but first we'll hear from Stephen Tardidi, the Director of Market Intelligence for the Fairfax County

[00:08:06] Economic Development Authority, and immediately followed by Jill Kaneth, the Senior Regional demographer for the Northern Virginia Regional Commission, Stephen and Jill will provide an overview of federal government footprint in the county by employment, contract awards, and lease space, and also what we know about impacts or actions to date, and a review of federal employment in the Northern Virginia region. I believe Supervisor Stork, we will briefly pause for any clarifying questions immediately after their presentation, and then move directly into hearing

[00:08:42] from Julie Coons, the president and CEO of the Northern Virginia Chamber, who will share what the Northern Virginia Chamber is hearing and learning and seeing from their members and the regional business community. And then also hear from Tony Castrilli, the director of the Fairfax County Office of Public Affairs, who will share kind of the resources to date that we have all collectively stood up and are sharing and how that's going.

[00:09:07] and also Victor Huskins and the EDA team on some of the important job and talent resources. And we also are joined by Bob Lazaro, the Executive Director of the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. And I think, as you mentioned, this is an illustrious group, so I imagine there will be comments and discussion throughout, but certainly hope to reserve a fair amount of time for open board discussion after the presentations.

[00:09:34] So with that, we'll turn it over to Stephen. Thank you very much, Rebecca. And thank you, board, for this opportunity to present on a very timely and rapidly evolving subject. The intent of this presentation is to look at a couple things.

[00:09:52] One is to look at the landscape of the federal government work and related work within Fairfax County borders. We'll also try to quantify the exposure that our economic ecosystem has to some of the new administration's priorities.

[00:10:09] And then we'll touch a little bit into what we are trying to track, what we are tracking on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. So first and foremost, we're going to look at the federal workforce that falls within Fairfax County border.

[00:10:25] This is the resident workforce. So according to the latest census data, we have approximately 80,000 residents within Fairfax County employed by the federal government. That means they live here but could work in District of Columbia, could be working in Maryland, other locations.

[00:10:43] That accounts for one out of eight, approximately one out of eight members of our resident workforce, or about 13% of our workforce is employed by the federal government. The second figure looks at the opposite side of the equation, those who may live elsewhere but work at federal agencies who have a footprint or existing location within the county.

[00:11:08] There's reasons to believe or nuances within that data and how it's collected that give reason to believe that that number is underestimated. I'm going to turn that over to Jill later to get a little bit more into those nuances. And then, in a similar fashion, at place for Fort Belvoir, which is over $45,000.

[00:11:34] Historically, the federal government has provided a lot of contracting dollars to Fairfax County-based companies. In fact, 6% of all federal government contract dollars based by place of performance or where the work is actually done goes to Fairfax County-based government contractors.

[00:11:56] Last year, fiscal year 2024, we saw over $41 billion come in, and that made us the top jurisdiction for those dollars inflowing. When we look at how many companies or establishments within the county receiving those dollars, that number falls around 3,800.

[00:12:17] We do expect that number to be the floor as classified contracts are not considered for obvious reasons. we're looking at public data here. But even within that realm, close to half of our government contract dollars are tied to the Department of Defense. And here you can see on the rest of the slide the remaining top agencies or departments that our government contractors work in tandem with. Much smaller share, but extremely important, is the federal government grants that come to

[00:12:52] entities based within Fairfax County. We count about 80 grantees receiving close to or a little bit above $450 million in fiscal year 2024. We're trying to see as the administration cancels these grants what the exposure here is in Fairfax County. That's something that we're working on here. But this is really tied to a lot of the local nonprofits who depend on these grant dollars for operational purposes so very important you can see some of the top agencies that those dollars are are our vehicle by and through to these

[00:13:31] nonprofits and then the federal footprint based upon the GSA lease inventory there's about 6 million square feet of lease space within Fairfax County that's both office and industrial we are able to extract the property type and note that there's about 4 million square feet that's leased that is office space. And based upon those leases that potentially have exposure to early termination clauses, that number runs about 400,000 square feet. The 4.3 million square feet

[00:14:09] of office represents about 3% of our total office inventory. And then much of this on the side of what's owned by the federal government is typically what resides with our federal headquarters. A couple of these, Transportation Security Administration, Defense Health Headquarters, are at least base. But as you can see, many of the other federal agencies that are headquartered here and are on federally owned land are within the national security sphere. So it would be very difficult to untie and dispose of those properties due to the work that's being done within those

[00:14:46] facilities. And then so as we're taking a look at the early days in this administration, both on the national level and then trying to take it down to the local level. Again, first and foremost, federal workforce. We think this is a conservative estimate, especially because of the lack in data, but in the jobs report that was released Friday, it was noted that there was a reduction in 10,000 in the federal government workforce in the U.S. When we're tracking layoff information, we see that number closer to 30,000 at the national level, and then trying to figure out how to dissect that and attribute it to Fairfax County.

[00:15:26] One, residents and agencies is something that will take time to unravel. So one way to look at the immediate impacts is by the unemployment insurance claims. But, of course, there's a lot of nuance within that data.

[00:15:43] Initial claims, first and foremost, are done at the place of work. So you may see an uptick in D.C. unemployment insurance claims, But that could be federal or Fairfax County residents that are impacted by that. And that will be another nuance that Jill will go into.

[00:16:01] After my presentation, on the federal government contracting side, as you know, many of our top employers, those who employ 1,000 or plus, are headquartered here in Fairfax County in the Northern Virginia region. Half of the top 10 government contractors by dollars are headquartered in Northern Virginia And, in fact, have a substantial footprint within Fairfax County.

[00:16:24] So this is the exposure that way. And then we're tracking which of our contractors have seen cancellations. So we have the number here. You can see there's 106 cancellations across 82 contractors. But really dissecting how much you can attribute on a dollar and employee basis is something that we're working to get a better understanding of.

[00:16:45] Another nuance within that data is you could have a large employer who does work both for the federal government and for the private sector, so you can't necessarily make a one-to-one attribution to the contracts that are tied to the federal government.

[00:17:03] And then on the real estate space, so far, we haven't seen much in the way of lease cancellations here locally. There are a couple of leases, and we do know that some leases that were expected to export They just did not enact that extension clause, and so they let go of that space versus cutting a lease or terminating it.

[00:17:25] The agencies that our government contractors serve, you can see the highest is within the Department of Interior, and we have 18 different departments or agencies that are tied to those. Really centered in the professional services industry, which is the largest industry base in Fairfax County when you're looking at the jobs numbers.

[00:17:51] A lot of the services that those contracts are being canceled on revolve around consulting, education and training, and other admin services. And then just looking at where we're seeing that administration make its first cuts, heavy reductions across agencies.

[00:18:12] Chairman McKay, you were talking about USAID. I know we saw the information last night that about 5,200 contracts have been canceled that are tied to that, and the rest will be moved over to the State Department. This shows our government contractors a smaller share, about 0.8 percent by place of performance, but that dollar amount will have an impact, especially an outsized impact, on some of our small business government contractors and the work that they do.

[00:18:43] The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is another one that has been heavily reduced. So you see the exposure there. And we have a couple others with the Department of Education has been in the news a lot. So knowing where or how much exposure we have for the government contractors in that department and Veterans Affairs, the one we're really looking at that I've mentioned before, the Department of Defense, there has been talks of taking some of those dollars and realigning them with the focus of the administration.

[00:19:13] But there's also been notes of just reducing the workforce. So we get most of our government contract dollars tied to Department of Defense for the Navy, Air Force, and Army. And then you can see a few others, a couple of those that are headquartered on the Fort Belvoir base that we will continue to monitor.

[00:19:38] And with that, I will turn it over to Jill. Yeah. Thank you.

[00:19:54] Thank you all for having Mr. Lazaro and I here today from Northern Virginia Regional Commission. I will give you a regional overview of our federal workforce. So to start, you've probably seen many numbers out there on the federal civilian employment data.

[00:20:13] You've seen OPM, I'm sure, and the BLS QCEW data, as well as the Census Bureau. They all have nuances to them, and those nuances are important to understand as you are planning and forecasting what the impact may be.

[00:20:30] First, we'll go to the OPM, which shows that we have 145,000 civilian employees, civilian employment located here in the state of Virginia, and we have 2.3 million in the U.S.

[00:20:46] But when you look at BLS, which is also reflecting the at-place employment here in Virginia, that one is much larger at 193,000. And the reason it's a lot larger than OPM is particularly because it includes the Postal Service, which has 607,000 U.S. employees.

[00:21:09] And so when you add the $2.3 million from OPM for the U.S. to the $607 million, you arrive at the $3 million. But there's still nuances in terms of which agencies are excluded on the OPM data as well as what's excluded on the BLS.

[00:21:29] And it's important to be aware that, especially on the OPM and BLS, to know that your national security agencies are not included in these numbers. So that's a huge estimate, especially for underestimate for Fairfax County, because it does not include agencies such as the CIA or the Geospatial Intelligence Agency.

[00:21:51] And then the overestimate comes from the Census Bureau's data, which is residence-based. Where do the residents live? They say that there's 4.4 million civilian employees in the U.S. So that's much larger than the 3 million, but that's larger for the fact that it does not have these exclusions. And it's also larger because people answer the survey by self-reporting what they believe their industry is they focus on. And so if they're a contractor or a grant holder

[00:22:27] that is full-time doing federal grants and stuff, they may classify themselves as federal. So you've got many nuances like that. So somewhere in between the two would be your federal civilian employment. So we've analyzed for the region, first the at place, again, with the nuances in mind. Keeping those in mind, these numbers underestimate how many people work, actually physically work in Northern Virginia and in the various counties. In Northern Virginia, we have

[00:23:05] over 81,000 employees working here in Northern Virginia. And that's 6.3% of the workforce of Northern Virginia. Compared to the U.S., the federal civilian workforce is 2%. So that's three times. So as we all know, we have a very heavy workforce geared towards the feds. And so we'll be harder hit for sure for that reason. And Virginia's share of federal workers is 4.8%.

[00:23:41] Now, when you look at, well, of all federal jobs that are here in Northern Virginia, what share is it of the country? And 6.3% of the federal civilian jobs here is the total, actually, that's the, I'm sorry, that's the total for Northern Virginia. But when you're looking at the U.S. overall what our share is. We're 2.7 percent of all federal jobs in the U.S.

[00:24:13] So that at least is refreshing to know that we're not as concentrated and that it's widely spread out through the U.S. So that may be a reason why the numbers have been so low currently that you've been seeing on the unemployment claims. It's because feds are very widely distributed throughout the u.s and in terms of our our residents one of eight residents in northern virginia that live here have a federal job and that's similar to the concentration for fairfax as a as a whole where

[00:24:52] fairfax was also uh one of the residents but you have other jurisdictions in our region arlington and alexandria that have much higher concentrations that will likely be harder hit and others uh your They're outer jurisdictions not as concentrated with residents who work at the federal government.

[00:25:13] On our website, you will find tools and all these data fact sheets and all that you're hearing today, such as this map that's here. We have an interactive version on our website under our federal monitoring dashboard section that we just released and that we'll be expanding.

[00:25:37] And this map shows you the shares of the total civilians, and you'll see the darker red is the higher concentrations, and the lighter is the lower concentrations. So the closer you get to D.C., certainly as you would expect, the higher concentrations of your federal workers.

[00:26:01] And Fairfax County, central Fairfax, as you see, is a moderate concentration. And then this here is showing you the number of federal civilian employees per square mile.

[00:26:16] So that gives you a different perspective of the concentration. So both are very valuable tools for understanding where the concentrations are. And for the civilian densities, as one would expect, the closer to D.C., certainly the higher the concentrations.

[00:26:37] And along the metro lines, you can see that we have much higher concentrations as well, which is what we would want from a planning perspective, people to use our metro to go to D.C. That's what we would hope. And in regards to the unemployment claims, there's been a lot of nuances out there on that, and you've probably had many questions regarding that.

[00:27:01] First of all, on our NBRC website, we just launched our federal monitoring, and we have the weekly unemployment claims tracked for Maryland, Virginia, and D.C., and when you view that, you'll see that the numbers are extremely low for all these states as well as the U.S., and that is because the federal government, for one, has a two-week lag on reporting their data for a week, but also their processing of the claims just is greatly delayed and can lag.

[00:27:36] some people are saying that the data might not show up for a couple months for what's actually happened here in the past month. So we've all been very curious about that and all the economists I've spoken to, including Fairfax County office. We all are eager to see the data, but we're just going to have to unfortunately wait another month or two to really gauge what's happening out there to the extent that there is right now.

[00:28:08] And our NBRC website, as I said, has the unemployment claims tracked. We eventually will track it by county. But Stephen and I met with Virginia Workstaff who manages that data for the county level and there's discrepancies in their database.

[00:28:26] Even though it's published, they've acknowledged there's discrepancies. And it's like a third of, when you summit, a third of the claims that have been filed for the state are missing from the county data. So it's not accurate at this time.

[00:28:43] So I would just caution against using it until Stephen and I have determined that from our interactions with Virginia Works that it's reliable. So for now, we have to just stick with the state data pretty much.

[00:28:58] And the monthly data, and that's for the weekly, by the way, for the monthly data, which has a one-month lag, so your February data will not be coming out until probably the end of March, and that data is reliable and has been heavily cleaned by the state, and that has county level, so we'll have to wait, unfortunately, have the one-month lag to really understand things.

[00:29:26] So February, expect that the end of March, and March, expect that probably the end of April. And then, let's see, on the U.S. Department of Labor data, just for your understanding of that, you'll see that they publish the weekly data in their newsletters.

[00:29:45] That's what's called their advanced data, and it's by the place of work. But if you want comparable data to the historic data to see the trends, you have to wait for it's a two-week lag. And so you'll see that our data has a two-week lag for the reason that we're tracking the trends over time.

[00:30:05] And the reason they, one of the things to know, the reason they have the two-week lag is because they are transferring between the states interagency. They're transferring to the states where the people actually live so that they have that data on place of residence to track how many in their state actually are living with unemployment insurance.

[00:30:32] And so the historic data is place of residence, whereas the data that comes out every Thursday is the place of work. So a lot of nuances to understand. Sorry if that's a lot to understand, but all this data has really given a lot of us headaches with the inconsistencies.

[00:30:55] And given Virginia Works headaches, too, they couldn't answer a lot of the questions Stephen and I have. We're all learning it at the same time. And then Virginia Works, that's my last thing here. How I said, I already mentioned the data by county is not clean, and the monthly is the reliable one.

[00:31:16] And so in regards to where we stand right now, as you'll see on this slide, how we haven't had much change. And that's what I was mentioning, how the numbers do not show the significant layoffs yet. The January numbers for the claims are what's shown here for Northern Virginia. That's 2,400 versus 1,600 back in December. And so again, not much change. And it really won't show up until probably the March data, which I've got the timeline here that you all can monitor to know

[00:31:50] when this monthly data that's by county is going to be coming out. So that's what you'll see there on that chart, the delays, one-month lags in this data. And so we've got the long-term in our economic monthly tracking report, which we are working on to make it interactive. And over the next couple weeks before the um next big release the february release we will have this interactive and at the county levels um on our on our federal monitoring website but right now it's available as

[00:32:27] a um hard copy document and soft copy on our website but the long term what's important here is we can monitor how this economic condition that we're facing, how it will compare to COVID.

[00:32:48] They're very different phenomenons and societal effects, but COVID obviously was the most historic and highest amount of unemployment initial claims in our history for the region.

[00:33:04] And we'll see how we do with these latest federal layoffs, which will obviously, as we all know, also have a ripple effect to have contractors laid off and small businesses and all, not just federal.

[00:33:21] And so then on the short-term side of things, as you see here, the main point is the data just has not shown up yet as of the January numbers and for the weekly as well. So this is what we will be tracking to see when the numbers finally appear, again, a month or two until we actually see what's happening.

[00:33:45] So I was mentioning our federal monitoring. That is found on our NOVA region dashboard. And, again, we'll continually be adding more data to it as we do more research with the NOVA EDA and others to provide this as a resource for what's happening in northern Virginia as well as its jurisdictions.

[00:34:06] I believe that was the last slide. Yes. I want to thank you, Ms. Kadiff and Mr. Tarditi. And just to remind folks, we will take some clarifying questions. We want to try to keep them very focused because we have a number of other presentations, and then we'll have more time at the end for broader conversations.

[00:34:23] Chairman. Yeah, just very quickly, on the unemployment, we're certainly understanding how nuanced your work is and trying to reconcile it all in our own mind, you know, whether it's this impact or this. It's a big impact either way. We're splitting hairs when we're debating over what the actual number is.

[00:34:42] It's a lot. So I guess the question, though, on the unemployment piece is I've heard conflicting reports about contract employees and whether or not they report through conventional channels for unemployment the same way other employees do.

[00:34:59] And so I'm just wondering if you're a contract employee and you are terminated because your contract has been canceled. In other words, it's totally unrelated to performance, and your employer is forced to terminate you because your employment was tied to a contract as much as it was tied to your company.

[00:35:19] Do those report the same way? Are we going to get a general feeling that we're able to capture those over time, or is that a giant question mark in counting unemployment claims? Well, we do know through the Department of Labor Information that the federal workforce has its own, essentially, unemployment insurance claims.

[00:35:45] So that's segmented out there. Ensuring that there's not overlap, we still do need to confirm. Another thing that we are tracking are noted as layoff events or notices. We haven't seen any come into Fairfax County-based companies, but we did see a government contractor in Arlington that had a layoff event due to the tides of the contracts that were cut, and that gives you the number that has been laid off connected with that employer.

[00:36:14] In addition, VEDP also tracks layoff and closure events, so for sort of that instant reaction or noting what might be tied to that bump, that's a good way of sort of supplementing that data, but we'll work to confirm that there's not any overlap for those that are federal government employees going through the unemployment insurance process.

[00:36:37] Okay. I mean, I asked that question because there's a lot of nuanced things here. I mean, one is the federal government employees, a lot easier to track and be able to quantify. The contractors is getting into a gray area, but for us to actually know what the real impact is to not acknowledge and calculate that component would be giving us a false read of what the impact is. And then there's a third tier that would be impossible for us to really distinguish, which is, well, there's actually a third and fourth tier. Third tier is all the private sector employees who lose their jobs because of federal spending that's not happening generally. All the

[00:37:14] small businesses that are near locations with a lot of contract employees or others that have to downsize and reduce force because people aren't spending as much money because they don't have it. And then the last category, which also will be very difficult for us to calculate, and I overheard this at the resource fair, which is we're not going to have a way to quantify people who may in their minds feel lucky enough to have received another job after being terminated and not have to file unemployment, but their new job pays them significantly less, that they're just settling for something to keep cash flow coming into their household.

[00:37:51] And we'll never have a way really to calculate that. But all of those things are things we have heard are happening, we heard over the weekend. And so I put all of that out because the total economic impact on personnel is almost impossible to measure.

[00:38:08] For us, we have to come as close as we can and say it's a lot. Trickle-down effects that are tied to this are not necessarily going to clearly appear in any of the data. Is that a fair assumption? Yes, I will say that we are currently working on an economic impact study that will take a look at some of those ripple effects, including the induced spending.

[00:38:28] So we should get a little bit of a clearer picture in that based upon what we know and actually the uncertainty around the situation. We're going to have to look at the various scenarios versus just trying to pick a number on what will be cut back there.

[00:38:46] But, yeah, you bring up a great point also on those federal employees who may be on admin leave or, yeah, or by the process, through the process of litigation, they're not really sure if it's time to file for an employee. So it doesn't really give an immediate look at the impact that a lot of our residents are already feeling.

[00:39:09] Yeah. Thank you for that. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'm going to go to Supervisor Waukesha rather than Supervisor Lesk. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I apologize, this isn't exactly a clarifying question, but it's related to the unemployment insurance topic. Sure, please. Sure. I'll just note, you know, someone who files for unemployment insurance in the Commonwealth of Virginia receives $378 a week.

[00:39:32] And we are in a crisis right now where our constituents are struggling to figure out how to pay their mortgages. And $378 a week does not do it. And I'm going to suggest that at next week's board meeting, we consider a letter to the governor asking him in his process of reviewing the General Assembly's budget to provide for an emergency increase in unemployment insurance.

[00:39:56] It happened during the pandemic. Folks got $600 extra per week. Commonwealth of Virginia has a huge surplus that they've been figuring out how to spend. And I can't think of any better use of it right now than for any Virginia resident who is unemployed.

[00:40:14] And most will be related to this administration, but other reasons as well. That's the most important thing, critical thing we can do right now to keep people afloat, keep people spending money at businesses in northern Virginia. And it would be tragic if we missed this opportunity.

[00:40:29] So I'm going to suggest at next Tuesday's board meeting that we urge the governor to do that. Thank you. Thank you, Supervisor Walkershaw. Supervisor Lesk. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My question is connected to, I think, slide four, which is on the federal footprint. And I'll kind of harken back to the point that the chairman was making about the contractors.

[00:40:50] I think this causes me, like, the most angst as it relates to kind of what the impacts could be if we lose the contractors as well. So we're kind of talking about the federal workforce, but you've got that whole contingency that supports them.

[00:41:07] And the numbers are large. And I think, you know, it's important for us to understand that impact as well. So I think you were referring to some analysis that might be done. Will that analysis also look at some of the impact as it relates specifically to the contractor space, the real estate space that they have, and then some of the vulnerabilities, possible early terminations of those leases that they might take as well?

[00:41:34] Or is that under consideration? So thank you for that question, Supervisor Luska. I'll first note that we expect the results for this economic impact study by the beginning of April. So I'll have a lot clearer of a picture from that standpoint.

[00:41:53] There are certain ways, ratio, square foot per employee. We're going to be taking a look more so at the spending, but there is a way to apply some of that information and take a look at different scenarios, how they would impact real estate too. so we can definitely build that into the considerations.

[00:42:11] Okay, and then second, I was thinking as I was talking to you earlier, I think about those embedded contractors that are in some of these agencies and the return to work that was done, you know, even at the earliest part of the year, I'm guessing that there was some need for some of the agencies to take back some of their existing space.

[00:42:31] So I'm wondering, is there a potential that we might have some of those embedded contractors having to go out and possibly find space. I'm trying to see if there's any little ray of sunshine in this whole calculus. But that could be the place where the calculus changes because you can't stay inside the agency because the agency doesn't have space.

[00:42:53] So is that part of what we might be looking at as well? Because I think that could have some significant impact on our economy as well. That is something we can certainly take a look at. And as I'm sure you're very familiar, There is some office inventory that surrounds a lot of these substantial agency footprints that could absorb those employees if need be.

[00:43:21] So we can certainly build that into the considerations as well. No, I appreciate that. And then the last point I'll just make, I'm sorry I said that was the last point, but I'm thinking about the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency. That's where I kind of was headed because we do have space right adjacent to it.

[00:43:37] So there could be some opportunity, and that's what we want to look for and see. So thank you very much. Thank you, Supervisor Lusk. And I just have one clarifying question for, as we look at the data, the value of the positions, if you will, the salaries of the positions, whatever we can get on that, because that would make also a significant difference.

[00:44:00] Obviously, somebody who's making $50,000 or $60,000 a year and maybe living more hand-to-mouth because their incomes aren't as high, that impact could be greater. So whatever data might be available that can help us understand what the value, if you will, the salaries of those positions would help us as well to evaluate this.

[00:44:19] With that, we're going to turn to the private sector. And Julie Coons is the President and CEO of the Northern Virginia Chamber. And thank you and welcome. Your microphone, please. Just press the yes. Thank you. All right. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

[00:44:34] I'm pleased to be here this morning. And my comments are in the context of this extraordinary data that we are seeing, as well as many conversations that I am having with the business community. This year, NVC is celebrating its centennial as we brace for economic uncertainty amidst cuts to the federal workforce and trade wars.

[00:44:57] I'd like to remind community leaders and decision makers that we have continuously adapted to economic shifts over the past century. Today, we're leading in industries that didn't even exist 100 years ago. According to Census Reporter, Northern Virginia accounts for 46% of greater Washington's regional economy, making it, in our view, an economic imperative that Northern Virginia not only succeed but exceed expectations.

[00:45:27] We are the economic engine of this region, and I believe that means we have a responsibility to lead. Northern Virginia, according to the NVRC data, is home to approximately 175,000 federal workers. This number represents the families, homeowners, consumers, and taxpayers who drive our local economy.

[00:45:49] When federal budgets tighten and jobs are impacted, the ripple effects are felt throughout businesses, from restaurants and retail to professional services and real estate. I hear from business leaders about the various ways they are being impacted by the actions in Washington.

[00:46:06] NVC members in the government contracting community have lost contracts. Employees are being laid off. Employers are reducing the number of open positions within their businesses, and stock prices are dropping for Fortune 500 companies headquartered in our region.

[00:46:22] I hear from the hospitality industry that meetings are being canceled, and from contractors that they are not being paid for work that has already been completed. A large employer recently shared that one of their regional leaders will be leaving the region once the school year ends because their spouse was laid off from the federal government.

[00:46:41] They are surely not alone. The latest actions in Washington have created real fear across our region. While some may compare the recent department closures and mass layoffs to the pandemic, or even BRAC, our members know that this moment is different due to two key components, transition time and federal support.

[00:47:03] There will be no federal dollars to support our efforts this time around. We recently brought together industry leaders and top economists, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, to examine the economic trends shaping the future. Our panelists were unanimous.

[00:47:20] We must partner with local officials to be proactive in our economic development strategies and diversify industry in our region. Our membership sees this moment as a clarion call to make a shift in our economy and address the elephant in the room.

[00:47:37] our regional economy is entirely too dependent on the federal government. For decades, and many of us will remember this here, Dr. Stephen Fuller of George Mason University sounded the alarm bells around our dependence on federal dollars, stating the obvious solution is to diversify.

[00:47:57] Some has happened, but we agree with him, and as an anchor institution, NVC is poised to take a leadership role in helping to shape the future of our region's economy, acknowledging that we must focus on policies and initiatives that attract new industries, support industry diversification and expansion, tackle affordability in housing and child care, and empower businesses of all sizes to thrive.

[00:48:23] To bolster our resilience, our members are proactively exploring future-focused industries, such as AI and space commercialization, and seeking ways to diversify our economy to reduce the impact of policy fluctuations in Washington. We believe that by fostering a supportive business environment and focusing on strategic investments in key sectors, we can mitigate the impacts of federal cuts and ensure long-term economic prosperity. But to be clear, a difficult road lies ahead. The president has already begun alluding to a recession, and economists are warning the risk of recession is increasing.

[00:49:01] Fortune 500 business leaders in our region anticipate that the next 18 to 24 months will be difficult, very difficult. The unemployment rates across the greater Washington region will continue to increase. This is certainly not business as usual. We believe that we will need to think and act differently if we want to retain our businesses and the professionals that drive them. Despite the challenges before us, we have undeniable strengths. A highly educated workforce and educational institutions primed to train and reskill, robust infrastructure, and a vibrant

[00:49:37] business ecosystem that is committed to building a fruitful path forward. We applaud our partners like the Northern Virginia Community College and Virginia Career Works, who are quickly pivoting to reskill federal employees who've been laid off. It's going to take all stakeholders in our region coming together to think creatively and collaboratively, focusing on emerging industries, expanding entrepreneurship, and supporting our existing businesses. We are currently meeting with MVC membership to explore policy recommendations to share with our elected leaders. MVC seeks a

[00:50:12] partnership with the Board of Supervisors and other elected and appointed leaders to affect the necessary change. We cannot afford to take a wait and see approach. The time for decisive action is now. We must work together with urgency and purpose to build a stronger, more resilient Northern Virginia, and I believe that we can do that. Thank you. Thank you, Ms. Coons. Appreciate your comments. And for those of you who had the opportunity, you had an excellent economic outlook meeting. And I particularly found it useful. And I know some of the SAIC leaders and other kind of key leaders, I think, helped us understand what is happening and how that might affect

[00:50:52] all of us. So thank you. Any clarifying comments? With that, we will move on to the third part of our presentation today, which is resources for impacted federal workers. And we have two individuals here, Tony Castrilli, obviously that you know well, and Victor Hoskins, who's head of EDA, and welcome both, and we'll see who wants to get us started. Good morning. I'm Tony Castrilli, Director of Public Affairs for Fairfax County. Chairman McKay, Committee Chairman, historic members of Board Supervisors, thank you for giving me just a few minutes. Today, I'm here to share with you

[00:51:31] important information regarding the county's federal workforce resource hub and our overall communication strategy. We encourage you to continue to amplify this information on your communication channels, and we'll use this opportunity to ensure the community who is watching this today is aware of these resources. The initial resource page was posted to the county website on Tuesday, February 18th, and then this hub, which I'm going to share today, was updated and shared on February 28th. The hub can be found on the front page of fairfaxcounty.gov as the lead in the highlight section, so just one click onto our website and you'll find it.

[00:52:07] The first thing you see on the hub is an evolving events listing area. This includes new information such as employee fairs and included this past weekend's event sponsored by Fairfax County, Congressman Don Beyer, and other local governments.

[00:52:24] This is an area that we can add to as new events are announced. Next are specific county resources for the federal workforce, highlighted by employment and jobs, health care options, financial help, mental health support, and much more. The employee and jobs area includes links to the county, state, and EDA listings, which you'll hear about in just a moment. A couple other quick things. Also included is a direct link to the county's LinkedIn page, where we are partnering with human resources to share important county support and job information. For your awareness, the LinkedIn page has over 40,000 followers and is one of our

[00:53:02] fastest-growing platforms. There's also a link to information recently posted by NVRC, which you just heard about, regarding federal data in our region. And I also wanted to highlight the county's return to the office commuting options information that we talked about at the earlier Board of Supervisors meeting. This section was developed in partnership with the Fairfax County Department of Transportation. The information was posted on February 21st and is a summary of commuter support and programs for area federal employees returning to the office full-time. You also can hear PSAs on this topic in the local media, including WTOP. I know many of you have heard

[00:53:41] that recently. I'll go through these next slides very quickly, but next are examples of graphics that have been shared with your offices and on county social media platforms. These bold images include specific messages that can be easily shared and get attention on your digital channels and bring attention to key areas of community interest, such as job resources, mental health, just a phone call away, and help with rent and food needs if necessary.

[00:54:09] We also recognize that there will be many community events on this topic coming up, and we wanted to share hard copy information to hand out at events in the community. So here you see an image of a printed flyer that is available for your and county agency use.

[00:54:25] I have one right here. We left about 50 copies in the room. But this flyer includes a QR code that directs people to the hub that we're outlining now. This flyer was handed out at the resource event this past weekend. And like I said, we'll be sharing these throughout the coming weeks.

[00:54:43] Lastly, very quick data. And I think it's important to share this. This data demonstrates this topic has high interest in the community. Through yesterday, our boosted social media impressions on this topic have exceeded a half million. But what's very impressive is the web page has over 29,000 page views.

[00:55:04] We did this yesterday. I bet you it's over 30,000 today, making this hub one of our top five web pages in the last three weeks. This is pretty extraordinary community interest, and it demonstrates the importance of this topic. Not a surprise, but we've had high media interest in this area, and we know situations like this, the media can really help amplify our message to the community, and that is the case here.

[00:55:27] We've seen our information on most local media outlets. I have shared some examples to the right there. Moving forward, updating, revised, and sharing this important information will remain our top priority and strategy. Thank you. Mr. Chairman, Board of Supervisors, members, I'd just like to thank you very much for the opportunity to speak to you today about the situation we're in right now.

[00:55:53] First of all, I appreciate your focus on people. This is families. These are neighbors. These are people that we know that are being impacted by this. This is not theoretical. And I think that's the thing that's disturbed me the most about how it's discussed in the media. And I really appreciate what you've done to focus on people.

[00:56:10] And also being at the event on Saturday and just talking to people and not speaking at people. I think that makes a big difference. They understand that you see their dilemma. And from the Fairfax County Economic Development, we've been very fortunate. Five years ago, you made resources available for us to create a tool to attract talent to this region from around the country.

[00:56:31] And we took that tool and we built a digital hub. And that digital hub, three weeks ago, we just switched it from a national view to a regional view. And it's made all the difference. Our traffic on our website has gone up 600%.

[00:56:46] It's gone through the roof. We had 92,000 jobs on that site listed before this situation began. There are now only 44,000 jobs on that website. That's contractors pulling back, saying, I'm not going to take the chance on hiring somebody because the business might not be there.

[00:57:08] Other contractors saying, I don't have a contract anymore. I have to lay people off. Individuals being anxious about their job and just saying, I'm going to take this offer that the federal government has put on the table. This is what we're experiencing right now, and it is severe.

[00:57:25] We've been fortunate in that we were able to switch quickly and join with the county. And all the resources that Tony just mentioned are fabulous. They deal with family issues as well as job opportunities, and I think that's really important. What we've done in addition to that is, so we have this website that we've retargeted to the region and to these federal workers.

[00:57:45] But in addition to that, we've started webinars that we have at noon where a worker can, you know, online at lunchtime, you know, tap in. we've even done one in the evening at 7 o'clock. Mike Badda has run those meetings. And what he does is provide really knowledge on how to navigate the website, how to get the intention of recruiters, how to research the company before you go after an opportunity, but really practical information on how to get back to work, because we feel that's the most important thing to get people back to work. In addition to those webinars, today we have Entrepreneurship 101,

[00:58:21] which is taking place at our offices in Tyson's. And this is targeted at federal workers who want to start a business. They may be disillusioned now with their public service, and they may never want to work for public service again, even though they're brilliant, even though they've contributed a lot.

[00:58:37] You know, you get an attitude when people treat you in an inhumane way. And I think that that's really something that we want to give them, that opportunity. We had a record 120 people. We reached capacity, so we started online registration. So we have another 200 to 300 that are going to view online, and we're going to put this on our website and make it available to others.

[00:58:57] The other thing we've done is work very closely with the media to get the word out on all of this. We've had interviews on ABC. The chairman has interviewed with Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal. So the word is out that we're here to help. Fairfax County is here to help.

[00:59:13] I don't know what other people are really doing, but I know we're here to help. And I just feel appreciative that you've made the resources available so we can help. This drop in the job availability, though, I think is the real crucial piece. And again, three years ago, I sat down and I talked to you guys about three industries that I saw as an opportunity.

[00:59:34] Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and space commercialization. And we've expanded tremendously in these areas. There's a lot of talent that is coming out of the federal government that we can bring to these businesses. So that's really the focus that we've been having, focusing on these businesses.

[00:59:50] We have over 70 companies in the last three years that are space or space commercialization that have expanded or moved here from as far away as El Segundo, California. That's the other ocean. So we obviously have something here that they can benefit from, not just on the federal side, but on the private market side.

[01:00:07] So we will continue to push on that. I think I want to end with the fact that this is not just happening here. It's actually happening nationally. One of the things that we asked our team to do is to take a look at the job postings in other markets like New York, Chicago, L.A.

[01:00:24] They've all dropped. They've dropped 30 percent in those markets. We've dropped 50 percent in this market. So we are getting the brunt of the situation. But I think that this economic impact study is going to provide us with what those numbers are and how it really looks. For every tech worker, you're having five jobs impacted.

[01:00:43] For every professional services worker, three jobs impacted. that's small businesses, that's personal service, that's legal services, that's your dental appointment that you skip, it's a child's pediatric appointment that you skip. It's these things that people do when you have to pay your mortgage or your rent and you don't have a choice. So we want to capture all that, but more importantly, we want to figure out how we can continue to expand in these businesses that we know are growing and really create opportunities for our people.

[01:01:11] Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Hoskins, and thank you, Tony and Ms. Castrulli. We have a lot to talk about still and I first and foremost appreciate your focus on people, relationships and really the core impact that it's having on them because we know that that's number one for all of us is how do we help them do better and how do we help them recover from something that's been done to them. They did not for the most part do anything to create the situation. They were providing excellent quality work and all of a sudden they're let go. So that's not acceptable to me and it's not how

[01:01:46] I ever have treated employees nor should anybody take that approach. So I share that, frankly, that astonishment that you would treat somebody that way. With that, I'm going to turn to the chairman and let him get it started. Yeah, thanks. A number of things quickly. First, I want to thank the whole team for their presentations. And what I hope is clear to everyone is they've been working on this for weeks. This was not something just put together tail end of last week that this is something we've had ongoing conversations about with weeks and for

[01:02:21] weeks and I appreciate ED you know EDA certainly the regional NBRC for stepping up without being told but just stepping in and saying hey this is important we're going to work on this and try to help the region and certainly the chamber as well I will say to how the traffic is coming into the websites of all of your organizations is really what's happening no matter where I go. There is not a place you can go to in the DMV right now for anything where this is not being talked about.

[01:02:53] That's how big a deal this is. And I've never seen that before. The closest thing I've seen is COVID. And I think the distinction that Julie made is the one I've been making to folks since day one. This is way worse than that because COVID, the world was affected by COVID. Here, there are certain areas, as the data shows, that are much, much more affected than other areas.

[01:03:16] So that already makes it worse for us. And then you add the component of we saved businesses and kept people in their homes during COVID because of the federal money that came in to allow us to do that. We fed children. We did the things when people lost jobs. In this case, the federal government is doing this to us. So not only is there no money coming from them, but it's actually because of them that this is happening, makes it, in my mind, so much harder to deal with.

[01:03:42] I appreciate what Victor said about the number of jobs, because just a few weeks after some of the layoffs happened, I went on this job site and looked and saw the numbers dwindling, and I typed in a specific job task. And well over half of the jobs that came up when I typed in that specific job task were contractors, and they specifically said tied to a federal contract, and a high percentage of them were USAID ones. And so we know these are paper jobs. And what is happening is real, which is why it's so frustrating when anyone walks around and says, we have all these

[01:04:18] jobs, just find another job. A, it's not that simple for the people affected. B, those jobs just aren't there. I mean, we have seen a 50% reduction. I wish I could say it's because those jobs are getting filled. In fact, it's because the contractors are pulling all these jobs off of these databases because they no longer have them. Several of those jobs, and I talked to some of our contractors, several of the jobs that are out there for each of these contractors fall into a couple different categories. One, they're advertising them with the anticipation that they're going to get a future contract. So no longer are they anticipating a future contract,

[01:04:55] those are being pulled. Some of them are out there in perpetuity because they're competing with other contractors for talent. And so they'll be happy to look at a resume that comes in and maybe they can find a place for that person as long as they have a contract. But they're not real in terms of we desperately need this position filled. They're searching for talent in a competing marketplace.

[01:05:14] Well, those are all getting pulled because these contractors don't know where to put these people now if they get an attractive resume that comes in. So that reduction in jobs, if anyone tells you there's all these jobs out there people can fill, it's nonsense. It's actually we're seeing what is happening with that. The third thing is an effect on people and where I was going earlier with the conversation about some of the smaller businesses and other people downstream that are affected. If we do want to look at those jobs that are out there, consider the example that Julie gave of the person who's leaving the area. I had a conversation with the sheriff recently and she

[01:05:50] said to me, Jeff, I just lost probably the hardest job in Fairfax County to fill. And I instinctively thought that must be a deputy position, but no, it's a public health nurse in the adult detention center. Very hard job to fill. And I said, well, why are you losing that job? And the answer was because the spouse of that person is a federal employee and they lost their job and they've decided to move south where the cost of living is lower. So now I've lost a public health nurse in the corrections facility because that person's spouse lost their federal government job. And so we're going to be seeing jobs opening up, more so maybe, but they're going to be jobs that are not

[01:06:27] directly matched to without a major change in philosophy, income expectations, education levels to fill and without massive retraining that would be necessary to do that. And my fear is a lot of people are going to look at those vacant jobs and compare them to the salary they're receiving now, and they're going to decide, I've got to move into a more affordable market. And that's a real problem and is why this board has been stressing and talking for so long and moving a needle on affordable housing. Why this is so important. We will lose talent that will move to more affordable marketplaces because the jobs that are available here for the people who are

[01:07:05] losing their jobs are at a different price point. And I think we've got to be real about that and the impacts about that and talk about them. The last thing I want to mention is the EDA is doing a lot of activities. I appreciate the ones that were mentioned, the webinars and the other things that are happening. I guess my question is when you do those lunchtime webinars or those 7 p.m. webinars, those are being recorded somewhere and being inventoried so that anyone can go back who wasn't available at that time frame, be able to watch and see what was presented in those? Yes, they're being recorded and they're being posted on our website. Okay, I think

[01:07:42] that's really important for us to be sharing too because in this evolving world right now where people are literally under siege, they're going to want to watch these when the time is appropriate and when they can focus, and that might not always be the time that they're recorded.

[01:07:58] And so having those out there for people to go back and sort and see what may be particular to their interest, I think, is going to be a really important inventory to have. We'll make sure they get on all the websites. Yeah, that's very helpful. And so, again, thank you all for this. As I mentioned, this is going to be an evolving conversation.

[01:08:15] We haven't even scratched the surface on how we're going to meet the need. But I will say for folks who are affected, it's going to be a real challenge. I mean, we got to be real. The federal money is not going to be there. Our ability at a local level to be able to fund the level of services that we were able to fund during COVID is not there.

[01:08:34] And so we're going to have to be very creative here and try to move people into other jobs if they're there as quickly as possible. And that just speaks to the magnitude of everything that's happening here. And it is in all teams on deck, as was mentioned. We're all in this together.

[01:08:50] We need to work through this together. And hopefully there is an increased focus at the state level, not just on providing services for people, which is nice. We're doing that. Bless you. We're doing that, and we were one of the first jurisdictions out there to be doing that.

[01:09:06] But the mission should be prevent the job losses from happening in the first place because we are going to be dealing with people who lose their jobs without a doubt. But I sure wish at a statewide level there was a much more pronounced discussion about the impacts to Virginia's economy here that have been clearly articulated here.

[01:09:26] And my hope is that at least the House committee and the Senate committee that's going to be working on this can elevate this conversation at a statewide level because it can't just be Northern Virginia complaining about this. And I'll end on this note. If Northern Virginia's economy is struggling, the state's is doomed.

[01:09:45] Read all the articles. Talk about school funding. Talk about the things that are going into our rural communities. Not only are they reliant on the income tax of Northern Virginians, they're increased reliant on federal spending to be able to fund the programs that they are income-qualified for that most of our people are not income-qualified for.

[01:10:05] So this is not a Northern Virginia issue. In fact, I would say, arguably, it's the most clear statewide issue and threat to every community in Virginia, and in some ways worse, into some of the very lowest-income rural parts of Virginia.

[01:10:21] And that's what all the analysis is showing. And so we're hoping that those committees can really elevate this at a statewide level. So thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Supervisor Palchuk. Thank you so much, Mr. Chairman. Thank you all, all of you for being here.

[01:10:37] I think to me the most important thing is that you're all at this table together and we're working together as a region, private sector, public sector, our economic initiatives, offices, and our EDA. Clearly we've been hearing a lot. My first question is really I think as the chairman mentioned, last night we had my budget town hall and I had a lot of teachers come up to me and say, you know, my spouse is a federal employee.

[01:11:05] So I know it might be difficult to gather some of that data externally, but maybe if there are ways internally in the county and schools that we can try to get a sense of how that's going. I do have concern, I think we all do, about that.

[01:11:22] Long-term, 100% agree that we need to focus on diversifying our economy. That was before I was on any board. I know that was looked at. And so I do hope, I guess, that hearing everyone talking about that, that we are sitting down and looking at what that means, because we know diversifying to government contracting is not diversifying, right?

[01:11:42] So how do we find different industries that will make sense in our economy? And then finally, Jill, I'm a big fan. I'm just trying to do my first class in demographics, and it's not easy, especially as a lot of census data keeps getting taken down.

[01:11:58] I appreciate that there are other databases where we can get that. And I guess my question is, as we keep working forward and having some side conversations with our regional leaders, I think Bob and your team are probably doing that. The more we can do to understand both our region and we know there are others very impacted regions as we communicate with our leaders, especially those who may be of a similar party and more open to having those discussions with us.

[01:12:26] I think any data that we can gather and send together would be very much appreciated. It is critical, and I want to make sure that we're not sending things to deaf ears, but to those who are willing to really help our communities. If I may, yes.

[01:12:43] The answer is yes, and there's an organization of planning district commissions, and we share all of our information with them. Just to Chairman McKay's point, I'm a data nerd, not as much as Jill, But 47% of all total personal income tax liability in 2022 was generated in Northern Virginia, $8 billion.

[01:13:06] 23% statewide came from Fairfax County. So this is a significant statewide issue. And to the chairman's point, I think it really needs to be elevated. And I look forward to the special committee coming to Northern Virginia sometime soon to be able to talk about those things.

[01:13:25] And the other thing is, we are, every other week, the mayors and chairs are talking, sharing the same information. Thank you to Chairman McKay for leading those conversations. But we're all talking across the region, like we did with COVID, about, hey, what are we doing here?

[01:13:43] What are you doing here? We're working on a letter right now about mental health services because of the personal impact to people who are affected by this. So thank you to you all for having us today, and we will continue to share that information. Thank you.

[01:14:02] Supervisor Alcorn. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. So thank you all. Excellent presentations. I do appreciate both the presentation of the data and the SOBER assessment, but also, frankly, the looking forward and, you know, looking where we can adapt and have to adapt, basically, to help our community.

[01:14:26] So I do appreciate that. Tough times, but still, I think, you know, moving forward, we really have no choice. My question, Victor, you mentioned the 44,000 jobs now on the list. That's actually down from just two or three weeks ago, I believe.

[01:14:44] I mean, that's a really fast-moving number. It's down from 92,000. Yeah, just in, I think, three weeks, something like that. Is that number readily available for those of us that would like to maybe just pop in every once in a while? Absolutely. Yeah, you just go to the website.

[01:15:00] It's the first thing that comes up. On the EDA homepage? On the workinnorthernvirginia.com. That's what I was looking at. Okay, thank you. All right, appreciate that. Thank you. Supervisor Behrman. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I want to echo Chairman McKay's comments about, you know, it doesn't actually have to be this way.

[01:15:24] We can be fighting to make sure that some of these indiscriminate and reckless cuts don't happen. It's why we've – the people sitting here have joined in letters recently. But I won't actually belabor that point because I've said it too many times and all of us up here have said it.

[01:15:41] But I do have a question about Saturday. Congressman Beyer had a resource fair. I saw Chairman McKay there. I know your team was there, Victor. I know your team was there, Rebecca. So I guess the question is, how do you think it went?

[01:15:59] What worked? Do you have any stories about connecting people to jobs? I mean, what do you think, if we were going to do another resource fair, what did you learn from Saturday's experience? I doubt that's going to be the first and the last.

[01:16:15] So how did it go, and what could we do better next time? I wasn't at the resource fair, so I can't give any specifics. I'll definitely check in with my team, and others can probably speak to this specific resource fair.

[01:16:32] But one of the areas, of course, we're in the area of business development and job development, right? And so one of the areas that we're very much focused on is, like, there's 44,000 jobs. That's great. These are not one-to-one matches, right?

[01:16:48] There is some skills overlap, but one of the questions that we're all, I'm sure, really looking at is, how do you transfer fantastic skills that many folks are coming out from the federal government with into, if they would like, into jobs that they may want to transition into. And I'm sure we've all had discussions with our neighbors and friends, and there's openness there, I think, to do that. You know, many are ready to exit out of public sector in some ways. So one of the things we're really excited about is actually the Talent Up program, which has been set up,

[01:17:28] ironically, with ARPA funding to support transition and resiliency and help what we've called previously overlooked talent to transition their skills through work-based learning opportunities. We really see Talent Up as an opportunity to expand out and help, you know, provide opportunities, both employers to kind of be a little more open to working with maybe a non-traditional candidate and candidates to try out a private sector or a different sort of experience. And so expansion or growth of that program is something that we're really interested

[01:18:07] in. And I think that just in terms of the job fair, everything that was there is what's needed in the moment, right? Health care, where do I go next for my health care, mental health resources, just really immediate needs, along with job opportunities. But a lot of our partners, like I think Nova was mentioning, it's really, it's not just applying for the job. It's really what, how do I speak that language? How do I transfer those skills? And there's folks here, lots of resources that can help with that. But I think we can shift a few to make sure that those

[01:18:44] connections are made. That will take a little bit of time. And if I could expand on something Rebecca said, because I was there for several hours, and I know, Jimmy, you were there for a bit. I talked to some of the people there, and one of my big takeaways there was the benefit of that particular day was the spectrum of services that were available. Because I specifically talked to some people who were there to try to figure out, how do I write a resume now? And then there were other people there who were trying to figure out if there were any daycare subsidies because they're

[01:19:17] losing a lot of income here in their household. And so the spectrum of need, I can't underestimate how complicated that is. And most of the need that some of the folks who were there will be needing, they have not experienced yet because they may have been laid off, but they're still getting those last paychecks. It hasn't hit for some of these people. And so the spectrum of need is one takeaway, I think, that we really need to think about. And I know that's one of the reasons why you would have a community-based nonprofit food support unit right next to somebody from

[01:19:55] the EDA who could help you write a resume. I mean, that's not an everyday event. And that shows you the magnitude of how this is hitting people and where it's hitting them. The second piece I think we need to think about is the audience of people who came. To get almost 1,000 people on a Saturday to come out to this event, they fell into a lot of different categories. One category was the people who lost their jobs and were desperate. The next category is the people who think they're going to lose their job and are terrified and don't know what is going to happen, you know, moving forward.

[01:20:28] And I think that category of person is one we've got to keep an eye on because as people are losing their jobs. They're reckoning with that. They're putting the wheels in motion for what am I going to do next. But the people who are living under threat of not knowing whether or not they're going to have a job day to day as court things and other things proceed has a real, real psychological and mental health impact on people and their kids. And so I think those are things over time we're going to have to be thinking about. What I did like at the event was an ability

[01:21:02] for these folks to tell their story and to, at their own confidence level, expose themselves, walk around to the various entities. And it was a large enough venue that there were private places where conversations could go happen. You know, not many people with a specialized PhD in a scientific area who's had a job for a couple decades wants to be out standing around people that might know them talking about how to write a resume. And so I think as we think about these of events. We have to be sensitive to how personal these things are and how some people feel, as was

[01:21:39] mentioned before, taken advantage of by their employers and kicked while they're down. And that comes with a lot of baggage. And so I think as we move forward, we're going to have to continue to have the spectrum of things that recognize everybody is on a different place on this spectrum, need the help, the intentionality behind having private areas for people to get counseling, support, other things, maybe not want to tell their story publicly, and try to meet these folks at their place where they are psychologically and where they are on the employment spectrum. And I think moving forward, that's going to be an increasingly important thing. What was not important is to make this, as much as many of us would like to, because we're infuriated over the lack of political

[01:22:19] support for Virginians, to not make it that, but to say our counties and our people in Northern Virginia, have compassion and want to help these people as best we possibly can. And that's what they were coming there for. And I think those are all things we need to keep in mind for future events. But excellent question. Just one final point. So Alex Imes, my VP, and Mike Batt, my VP of Talent Programs, they were both there. And the first thing that they told me was, you supervisors were fantastic. I mean, you talked to people, you took time with people, you didn't try to give a speech, Congressman Beyer didn't stand up, and by the way, one of the most articulate

[01:22:56] people I've ever seen, and did not do that. And I think that that is so powerful for people to see when they're fearful, when they just lost something, when they're desperate. In terms of the services, I think you're absolutely right, Chairman McKay, the portfolio of services that were made available, these are free services available for anybody who came, was fantastic.

[01:23:18] And even last night, new resources became available. of our board members, Stephen Partridge, who is a VP over at NOVA, he came forward and he said, look, we have just put aside a million dollars for re-skilling and up-skilling. And all these resources, by the way, are on workinnorthernvirginia.com, you can get to them, but for free degree programs, certification programs, and they're going to leverage another three million dollars for that.

[01:23:41] So I think that we're going to see more of that, more of these institutions and individuals coming forward. So the next time one of these is done, there will be even more resources there. Thank you. Brearman, anything else? Any other board members? With that, I'm going to turn over to Rebecca Bondi to help us close the meeting, but just want to mention that when I talked to David Bolova, who again chairs the committee on federal workforce and funding reductions, he had identified a tentative date of April 8th as their meeting in Northern Virginia. So more to come on that. We'll get something out as we confirm that. But I just wanted to

[01:24:18] share that approximate time frame for that. So, Rebecca. Thanks. That is great to hear because I think the culmination of some of these discussions really is how do we come together and identify priorities, needs, and recommendations that can filter up. So I just wanted to quickly actually kind of respond to a few of the questions that came out underscoring we really need to consider what comes next, which we've all been doing for a while. I mean, Victor mentioned focus on, you know, our most competitive sectors that are growing. And we're going to build on this discussion and focus on that at our next

[01:24:58] committee meeting. On March 25th, we have an Economic Initiatives Committee meeting where we will discuss the findings and recommendations that have come out through an analysis that has been done by a third party called, we call it our Department of Economic Initiatives Blueprint for the Future. And so I think it's very timely that we're going to be able to kind of follow up this with a focus on really what can we do next, how can we understand challenges that exist that perhaps are deepening, and the many opportunities and strengths that we can build on.

[01:25:32] We'll also, on April 8th, I hope that these meetings don't conflict, we have the Economic Initiatives Committee meeting planned where we will be able to learn more about the impact analysis that EDA is working on that we'll begin to kind of go through some of these deeper ripple effects that Stephen and Victor mentioned.

[01:25:53] We also just launched a business survey. And so we've started, we just launched it yesterday. We're going to share it with your offices to also share out. So we're going to be hearing back. We've already actually started to hear back from businesses about what they're currently experiencing and what planned approaches are related to a couple of the federal policies that have happened and are happening as we speak.

[01:26:18] So we'll also be able to review a little bit more kind of on-the-ground data of what's happening. I also wanted to mention that we just launched on Fairfax Core a From Fed to Founder site where we're compiling together different resources kind of target at these transitioning federal workers who are interested in starting a business.

[01:26:38] So, for example, the Entrepreneurship 101 event that happened today that featured speakers, the featured speakers that were former feds and launched a business, that recording from EDA's event will be on the Fed to Founder page, along with other kind of targeted resources, really for any business, but really focused on transitioning federal workers.

[01:27:01] So a couple of things coming up and next steps to continue to build on this conversation. Thank you very much. Thank you, Rebecca. Thank you, panelists, for being here and helping us understand a little bit more what's in that crystal ball. We know it's still a little bit gray, and we know a month or two from now as the data gets clearer, maybe it'll be clear to us what that impact is for us.

[01:27:22] But regardless, we know it's hurting folks, making a difference in how we really connect with each other, because when you're fearful, when you're concerned, when you're cautious, you're going to be obviously more on edge and frankly more uptight.

[01:27:39] And we know that we can help make a little bit of a difference with that by offering services and support of this county, and this board is totally committed to doing that. So, again, my thanks to all of you. And with that, this meeting of the Economic Conditions Committee is adjourned.

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