Coraggio Consulting
Prince William Board of County Supervisors — Joint Meeting with the Prince William County School Board, Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Date: Tuesday, December 17, 2024
Place: Prince William County Board of County Supervisors, Virginia
Length: 1h 17m (video)
Official meeting video (Prince William County, Granicus): https://pwcgov.granicus.com/player/clip/3590
Official Board of County Supervisors page (Prince William County): https://www.pwcva.gov/department/board-county-supervisors

Machine transcript (speech-to-text) produced by Coraggio Consulting. Not an official county record. Names and numbers may be misspelled; check the video at the timestamp before quoting.
Speech-to-text: whisper.cpp, model large-v3-turbo. Produced 2026-10-31. Timestamps are [HH:MM:SS] into the meeting video.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

[00:00:01] I don't have a gavel with me, so I'm just going to go ahead and get this meeting started. It is 6-0-1. Thank you, everyone, for joining us. And thank you to the school board for coming. You know, unfortunately, our accommodations are not as luxurious as the Kelly Leadership Building, but we have really good food. I hope that makes up for it.

[00:00:22] Yes, thank you. So there are a number of things to discuss before we get started. I wanted to see if Dr. DeKeefe had anything. No, I just thank you for having us here this evening. We're excited to be here. It's always great to work with you all.

[00:00:39] And we did not have one of these last year, so this is the first one in two years. So look forward to our discussion this evening. Thank you. All right, so from our point of view with the Board of County Supervisors, one of the things that, you know, we have a lot of growth coming to the county, and that's certainly one of the things that I want to do.

[00:01:00] You know, with the way we do this whole thing, I guess we'll start with Prince William County. You know, we'll start talking about, I guess, the first thing up is the CRC briefing. You know, Mr. Shorter, do you have an update? Absolutely. Thank you very much, Madam Chair, Chair Lateef, board members.

[00:01:17] Thank you for being here, consistent with the agenda. We wanted to cover three items that we heard from our board that we wanted to update on this evening. Starting with the CRC, this is really just an update on what we've been first to talk a bit about the waiver process and what we've been going through, and then to give an update on where we are with DMAS.

[00:01:44] So if Lisa Majin is here, Lisa Majin is our chief transformation officer, but also serving as our director of social services. And Lisa will give an update, community services, and we'll give an update on the CRC.

[00:02:01] Lisa, I'll turn it to you. Thank you all.

[00:02:26] And try to speak up. Conversations began in July of 2021 around the vision, the prices received. The whole vision was 16-hour observation units, and that's 25 for the first $2.7 million towards this.

[00:03:02] We were moving ahead with the adult, and we couldn't afford both. And then we awarded the contract to an experienced vendor with a particular model that we're doing that has never been before. We're operating a CRC, and that's Connections.

[00:03:18] We ordered the contract in November of 2022. DBA, SDS, the state, came to us and said, if we give you some funding, you open some of the youth program at the same time around the thing.

[00:03:35] So by that December, we had funding to move forward for part getting closer to our vision, which is a very short time frame. You may remember that in May, the county purchased the Worth Avenue building, and we were moving faster than anticipated until June of 2024.

[00:04:00] At that time, past June, the Department of Behavioral Health State Agency reached out to us and asked us to complete a form for them to determine whether we would be considered into an IMD.

[00:04:19] is out of a policy, a federal policy that was established through the Social Security Act around 1968, really to prevent institutionalization. Around the time of deinstitutionalization, and so as not to increase and bring back a lot of beds in an institution for those with primary mental health disorders, this act was included.

[00:04:45] It has some exceptions to it, but basically any facility that has more than 16 beds is deemed an IMD, as so we cannot bill Medicaid. Now in our vision for the CRC, not only did we vision crisis programs, but we also were co-locating some of our community services programs to be able to support individuals to prevent them from going into crisis or to help them once they were coming out of crisis. So we were very concerned about

[00:05:19] those programs as well. Since June has occurred, we have, and I know you all have advocated as well, thank you very much, but we have spoken to a lot of various agencies and delegates around what we've done, given the fact that we're planning on opening the summer of 2025.

[00:05:41] Construction started on the building. We contacted specifically DMAS in October and had a meeting with them on the 24th. They indicated that the only possibility is for them to write and actually submit a waiver to the CMS, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. They would review it, hopefully approve it. Other states have done this, obtained waivers, and some states have done

[00:06:16] the services without getting a waiver. It was up to the state to determine whether a facility is considered an IMD. Given the fact that our facility is not long-term, it is specifically for crisis, we, or the state, or DMAS at the time, thought that this facility would meet the criteria. However, DMAS did weigh in and say, as proposed, our facility in routine beds would be in an IMD. So DMAS indicated that either in January they were anticipating

[00:06:51] submitting the waiver, but we had, as I mentioned, a meeting on the 24th of October and found out on November 8th that they submitted a waiver for public comment, which is the first stage, faster, and in an unprecedented gesture, the director has stated that she very much supports our facility, wants to see it happen, and she is pressing forward quicker than anything that's been done with CMAS regarding a waiver. The public comment period was open until the 11th

[00:07:26] of December. And thank you for those of you that made comments. It closed on the 11th. All of the comments were positive. So I have been told by the director of CMAS that they are planning to submit the waiver to CMAS on the 30th of December. She is going to confirm when that happens with us.

[00:07:45] So we are very pleased that the EMAS and the department support us, but we are also making plans for what we can do in the interim, knowing that even if the waiver gets approved, it's not likely that it's available by our plan of opening time.

[00:08:05] The main two choices that we have is to be able to open adult programs only, which we can bill Medicaid, not even at that point. More conversations in the state, talk to the state that is funny, cover GAP Medicaid funding open adult.

[00:08:36] That is where we are now. It did open to bill Medicaid until the waiver came.

[00:09:03] They're hopeful. Does anyone have any questions? Thank you very much, Nancy.

[00:09:22] Lisa, what is that GAP? It's approximately $11.4 million to $5.7 million each year.

[00:09:48] Next item that we discussed, I'm going to have Glenn Sleeps stand up to talk a bit about what is coming, I believe, tomorrow, and that is the governor's budget.

[00:10:12] The intent here is not to give a line-by-line overview of what is expected, but instead to give a high-low overview of really the budget priorities, as we know them. And so with that, I will turn it over to Glenn. If we could drag this meeting out until 9.30 tomorrow morning, we'd know a lot more.

[00:10:32] You ought to do that, right, Borg? We're good. We're good. With that, we'll get into that part. Right now, the Commonwealth is living under the doctor just after the assembly.

[00:10:54] This is what would be called a tweak session, a tweaking session. One, it's a short session. Two, it's about the last session. What are they going to be tweaking? Well, revenues are leading forecasts fairly substantially, as has been the historic case in the Commonwealth Act.

[00:11:15] We've got a pretty conservative budgeting process. Right now on the table, it's approximately $2.3 billion ahead of the biennial budget, ahead of the year-over-year forecast. And that figure of $2.3 billion was announced on November 18th based on August and September tax receipts.

[00:11:37] With that, there's a projection right now with both the House Appropriations Committee and Senate Finance Committee as well as the economists advising the Virginia Association of Counties that if we hit the 25-26 budget cycle, there's going to be an additional $1.1 billion on the table.

[00:11:55] With that $3.5 billion, right now there's an additional $403 million in the August-September forecast, again, our schedule to the happiness of the General Assembly, because it'll give them a whole new set of dollars to $5,000.

[00:12:14] But there's not going to be much fire. The reason for that is the commitments of the Commonwealth heat that up very, very quickly. This morning, I conferred to the staff of the Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, And based upon the presentation that was made for the Joint Money Committee, of course, in the last 30 days, Medicaid reimbursements, speaking of which, is going to run, but that hypothetical $2.3 billion is right now sitting at $500 million.

[00:12:46] The projection is it could be hitting closer to $600 billion, just as it was. With that, the attention turns to what the governor is going to put on the table tomorrow morning.

[00:13:05] This, yesterday, the governor announced, and since this is a joint excuse to follow the opportunity to bring this up, yesterday, the governor announced his action initiative. By my tally, it comes up to about an additional $747 million in announced programs.

[00:13:26] With that, I want to do quickly the major highlights that within the education arena. Direct aid, an increase of $164.3 million. Support for English learners, $110 million. A new lab school for historically high colleges and universities, $25 million.

[00:13:47] A combination of programs for dual enrollment, assessment programs, and school resource officers that is additional $107 million. and for school construction a fund of competitive grants to school systems in the tune of $290 million.

[00:14:05] All those were in the government program yesterday and the details should be included in tomorrow morning's budget. Both of these boards endorsed removal of the support cap ratio with a senior reimbursement from the Commonwealth for support staff since Tim Cain was governor and not a senator.

[00:14:31] The Virginia Association of Counties yesterday issued a letter to the 21 committees also endorsing this issue. And last week when the K-12 Joint Subcommittee met, we met the Joint Subcommittee met for that purpose.

[00:14:50] An outline of how the Commonwealth will fill the J-R-C number to remove the support cap ratio across the top 200 committee. And what I would like to encourage, I'll share this link with Jim Council tomorrow morning, but I would encourage both the governing school system and the Board of Supervisors to watch the K-12 presentation this week because it really breaks down how we're getting to the big numbers,

[00:15:23] and that is to fulfill the promise, the obligation of the Congress to fully fund the standards of quality. And according to the J-LARC study, that's $3.5 billion. And that's in annual funds. That's not a one-shot deal. That's new money.

[00:15:40] Commonwealth would have to come up with the pledge. It's a constitutional pledge. It's never been. It's never been. But because of the subcommittee that Senator Locke now chaired, the joint subcommittee on K-12 funding that was born out of the drug study, they are going to be seriously looking at tinkering with the methodology about this the Commonwealth Fund.

[00:16:06] Republican senators. Watch those hearings. She is absolutely committed to improving the state of her ballots between the Commonwealth's obligations and medical departments. With that, there are some unknowns going into tomorrow and some unknowns going into the General Assembly. The first one is that both sides, in a sign of bipartisan cooperation, have, keep in mind, it's $2.3 billion on the table. Both the Democrats and Republicans are committed to some

[00:16:43] I was a little surprised by that, but the debate will come down to it between, this is my crystal ball, between how much the governor wants and how much Senator Lucas and Delegate Twain is living.

[00:16:59] But it is positive and bipartisan spirit of things, and both sides seem to be going to some form of tax relief. There are three other moving targets in the tax arena. Delegate Vivian Watts chairs the Joint Subcommittee on Tax Preferences.

[00:17:17] I mentioned Senator Locke, the joint subcommittee on K-12 funding, and Senator Lucas, and this is the big one, the joint subcommittee on tax policy, which is looking under every single rock, looking at every single tax rebate, every single tax credit program, including those data centers, is on the table with that joint subcommittee.

[00:17:41] I don't think they're going to be in a rush to finish that work given the next governor's election cycle, but it's a very, very significant study. It's going to really restructure the relationship between Virginia's local governments and the county.

[00:17:59] So with that, the governor presents at 9.30 tomorrow morning. On January 3rd, Joint House and Senate Money Committees have the Northern Virginia Regional Budget Hearing. They will hear requests for every single special interest group in the entire region in their annual listening session, starting at 10 o'clock in January.

[00:18:22] I'd be glad to circulate what the governor releases tomorrow morning, as well as what the Secretary of Finance is going to release tomorrow morning. And the response is from the leadership of the House and Senate committee. So with that, that's the lane of the landscape.

[00:18:38] And we're dealing numbers like 500 million here and 100. It doesn't take long to talk about three and a half million. Thank you so very much. Does anyone have any questions? Care about your baby? Sorry, I was expecting you.

[00:18:55] I should have heard of you. If you was going to be with Senator Locke, please. I'm a subcommittee of the people. Okay, thank you. All right, Mr. Blake.

[00:19:15] 200 million. Jim has got a number on three subjects, 200 million states.

[00:19:35] That's 200 million every year. This plays into that three and a half million student. All right, thank you so much.

[00:20:01] Thank you, Glenn. And finally, Madam Chair, we will have Dave Sinclair, Director of Management and Budget, to just give an overview of the budget calendar as it currently exists.

[00:20:17] This is a subject of change. We wanted to make sure we provide the dates as they are now. Dave. Good evening, everyone. As Mr. Shorter said, all of these dates are tentative, pending the board's approval of their calendar year 2025 meeting schedule.

[00:20:40] On the county side, we are proposing the capital improvement program on February 11th, and the county executive will be presenting its proposed budget on February 18th in the evening. In the month of March and early April, we'll have budget work sessions for those important topics, just like the CRC, for example, that we want to get in front of the board and discuss at greater length because time does not permit on the 18th of February.

[00:21:16] Our first budget public hearing is scheduled for March 18th. If the board recalls, you made it very clear about five years ago that you wanted to have two public hearings, one in March, and then the public hearing that meets state code requirements for advertising tax rates, fees, and a summary of the budget in April.

[00:21:45] On April 1st, Prince William County Schools is scheduled to present the school's approved budget to the Board of County Supervisors for consideration as part of the overall budget.

[00:22:02] On April 8th, you would have a budget recap. What is budget recap? That is the county executive's final opportunity to amend his proposed budget based on new information that we have learned since his original presentation of February 18th.

[00:22:23] It could be new information that we've learned from the commonwealth or information that we've learned from the board and the community, for example. Also, after budget recap, we will have the official public hearing on the budget.

[00:22:43] That is the one that meets all the state code requirements, April 8th in the evening. On April 15th, we will have a budget markup. At the end of conclusion of budget recap, the county executive will officially turn the proposed budget over to the Board of County Supervisors.

[00:23:09] Your markup session is scheduled on April 15th in the evening, and then budget adoption is scheduled for April 27th. I'll be happy to entertain any questions. All right. Does anyone have any questions?

[00:23:27] Why do you have plenty of questions? Supervisor Mears and Supervisor Baylor. That first new public hearing, thoughts on location and size of the venue?

[00:23:45] Because I can remember some time ago, had we opened the name High School Oratory, and I think we probably haven't had that happen since COVID. But is there, do you have any sense that we want on hold of off-sites that we can entertain more people anymore, organized in a comfortable fashion?

[00:24:11] I do not. supervisor we are in recent that has been in the board chamber so that it can be effectively broadcast. Second question, still may seem that the next short period of time, April 15th, April 27th, the plea markup and adoption is limited, too limited, given statutory obligation

[00:24:40] that doesn't actually trigger until July 1, I believe. But I hope you've got a plan to potentially bake some additional prizes that would have to be discussed as part of your meeting calendar but I'll offer that so we do have a series of opportunities for work sessions and so there will be certainly an opportunity for the board to engage not just me but agency

[00:25:18] directors with questions we're going to build that into the budget process this year so that we know in advance, and you can say to the board in advance, when you should expect to be able to sort of bring your questions to directors. We also will open the budget Q&A, so we'll have directors prepared with questions or responses to questions that we know are coming as well.

[00:25:44] So we'll certainly do what we did last year and just build that into the process. And also just, you know, again for awareness, January 14th is our first meeting of the year and it's our organizational meeting. So we're going to be discussing this and finalizing it.

[00:26:00] Is that when we could close the chair? Yes. I missed the point in a second. I missed getting paid, but okay. Any other questions? No? Thank you. Thank you. All right, now I'm going to turn it over to the school board.

[00:26:17] Thank you, Madam Chair. We have four topics to go over, and we'll, in the spirit of the way you all presented very efficiently, we'll do the same thing. We're going to give you a quick update, And we appreciate the update of the Crisis Receiving Center in the same vein. The school division has been committed to trying to improve what we can with mental health for our students.

[00:26:36] This is a topic of great interest among families, parents, and citizens of the program. So Dr. McDade will offer a quick update on our mental telehealth services. Dr. McDade. By the way, do you have a handout in your folders on Hazel Health? This is a quick update.

[00:26:53] We just began implementation of Hazel Health. The contract and procurement ran through the summer and the beginning of the school year. So we really got off to starting with parents opting in for their children in late September, early October. So we have a small subset of data currently, but we are seeing continued opt-ins and an uptick, actually, in recent weeks in our employers.

[00:27:18] So to date, what you see here is the number of student and family engagements. The Hazel Health telehealth service is a short-term teletherapy, and it provides services that are confidential and private, so the data that's collected from Hazel Health is not shared with the school system, which is why the parents will opt in, and then that data is only shared between the family and the service provider.

[00:27:43] It's free to our students. The school system absorbs the cost, And it's licensed therapists that provide the services, and they cover topics like grief and loss, depression, anxiety, stress, bullying, peer and social behaviors.

[00:28:01] And so we right now have about 1,088 students who have opted in, and that represents 95 schools. Parents complete consent forms. We also have situations where we have staff that may make a referral, and then the parent can opt into the service.

[00:28:19] But week over week, we're continuing to see an uptick in families taking advantage of the services that are being provided. Any questions? Mr. Weir. Cost? The total cost is $1.5 million, and it's for every single student in the school system from kindergarten to 12th grade.

[00:28:41] Annual? Annual. Mr. Bodie then Ms. Franklin. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. So can you elaborate a little more on the synergy because you said it's for a short-term telehealth only. How is it there, is there like a warm handoff to CS? What's the partnership there to help bridge that gap once they get close to the end of being available?

[00:29:05] So typically, well, because, you know, it's a year-to-year contract, that's why it's short-term. And so what ends up happening is if the families need services beyond what Hazel Health can provide, then they work with them to connect them to resources right outside of what we're offering.

[00:29:22] But that's all between the provider and the family to make that determination. They're really a strong bridge to help your families in the time period while they're trying to get the appointments in the community. And it's of no cost to the students or the families.

[00:29:37] And there's no co-pays. We don't charge their insurances. Ms. Franklin and Ms. Bailey. Yeah, just a quick comment. I just want to thank you all for implementing this service because it's kind of revolutionary, even though it probably shouldn't be.

[00:29:53] Particularly post-COVID, we know a lot of students have a different learning style because of COVID than we maybe did growing up. and you know the challenges around mental health and we've been dealing a lot with that in the county with the crc i mean mental health services for our students it's just incredibly incredibly critical and i'm preaching to the choir but this is important so thank you all for even doing this and there's still a stigma that's associated with um you know acquiring mental health services and so because it's confidential and the family can go straight through um our student information

[00:30:29] hub and you know get the services and not have to go through a lot of different people that's been helpful as well because it's all common yeah and i'll just lastly say i like the fact that it exposes kids to mental health services early because a lot of us didn't grow up committing to mental health services it was more taboo than it is now so thank you bailey thank you very much Just want to echo what my colleague has said.

[00:30:58] I think this is a great opportunity. It gives us even more time to establish the CRC in a broader sense. And I remember, I can't think of the director's name that was handling the mental health right now, but I can't draw it.

[00:31:15] The lady. Yes, yes. I remember her mentioning this last year. And to know that you've got done this quickly is essential. And so coming from out of COVID and our babies having anxiety, this is absolutely imperative. So I would like to see in the future as we finalize what we need to finalize with the CRC if it's an opportunity for us to see the cost that this may be going forward as we partner with the CRC because I think there will continue to be a need. I'm not trying to get in your

[00:31:54] knickers in terms of that, but I think it will be a great partnership as we offer the services at a higher level. We fully believe the CRC will be one of the resources we raise, for sure. I think for all you to know, you know, I think Hazel Health has 5 million students under their watch.

[00:32:15] I think eight states have chosen to pay for the service for all the school divisions. So Ohio being the most recent one, their General Assembly voted to cover the cost of Hazel Health in every school. It was in, Glenn, if he's still here, it was in the budget last year in the governor's proposed budget to cover all 6th through 12th graders in the state.

[00:32:38] It died as part of the arena package. It's not clear if they're going to bring it back, but it's a good thing if they cover it. Fairfax is doing it for middle and high or high. We're doing it for everybody. I don't know of any other division of the state doing it.

[00:32:54] So relative to, you know, what it costs us, I think the gains are going to be pretty good. So it's a good return on investment for really a small investment. And what we're seeing is that right now the highest number of students served by grade level is actually not middle and high.

[00:33:13] It's for the fifth. Really? Right now, fifth grade referrals are outpacing six and 12. Is there any reason for that? You know, we're not printing the information, so we don't know why we're, we don't know what the region is, what's the world, we don't get any of that, because, you know, it's private, it's an example.

[00:33:36] Okay, great. And then if you guys have any further questions, please email them to us. I know Dr. McDade will be happy to answer any of those. We'll move on next to the CIP. Dr. McDade. I do have a team here that is going to go over updates on the CIP.

[00:33:53] This is the CIP that is talking for everyone already and out in the public, but we're just getting updates on some of the big projects. So Mr. Vox has a whole team here if you want to give me two points and you can send things. Absolutely. Thank you, Dr. McGaid.

[00:34:09] Good evening, Board Supervisors and Board Members. I'm going to stay in because I'm going to ask my teammates and I'm going to introduce them and have been in place at the table here, but we really are here to provide you an update on our 25 to 29 capital improvement projects, including new construction, minor projects, site improvements, HVAC projects, as well as our energy and energy management and sustainability projects.

[00:34:33] Also, we've got a member of the team here that will update you also around the board-approved redistricting policy just recently, and we'll update you about that. And also, we will update you on our most recent enrollment trends and our enrollment projections, which we'll be informing our upcoming CIP.

[00:34:51] So I'd like to introduce three members. We do have Hasan Al-Jaber here. He's our acting assistant director. We also have Vince Sampire and Vince, if you could join us at the table. He's our supervisor of construction. He'll be updating you around our CIP. And we have Scott Halsey, who will be updating you as well around the other two, our policy update and our student enrollment trends.

[00:35:11] So thank you. Good evening everyone. I'm going to start with new construction, then run into minor projects, site improvements, HVAC, and then energy and ability. So for our new construction, we have two projects. One is Woodbridge Area Elementary School, which is currently under construction with the scheduled completion for the 26-27 school year. We're about 76 or 70% complete right now. Some of the outstanding items to complete are site work, the building,

[00:35:51] commissioning and then running through uh the occupancy our second project for new construction is cock one elementary our net zero school this is scheduled completion for january of 2026 we're currently working on footings and foundations and the geothermal wells are complete under new construction in design we have the washington reed edition renovation brentsville district high school turf research facility vaughn elementary school fred lynn

[00:36:30] middle school renovation and addition a nooksville school addition 14th high school we have brentsville transportation brentsville and potomac transportation centers the new global welcome center which is located on the sinclair elementary property we have grand park middle school renovation, New Potomac Shores Elementary School, in addition at Pennington, and then currently under construction which are scheduled for completion this

[00:37:04] fall are Cedar Point Elementary School. For our minor projects, these are all completed projects. Woodbridge High School we have a cosmetology lab and fenestration improvements which are windows for those that know. Garfield High school we have a new turf field, a new concessions building, and fenestration improvements there as well. Osborne High School, artificial turf, new track, and

[00:37:39] concessions building. Patriot High School we have a new stadium field and track, T Claywood, synthetic practice field replacement, turf replacement, and Ripon is a roof replacement, Ripon Middle. For site improvements at Neabsco, we Installed a new ADA access ramp at the front of the school, new paving, Sinclair Elementary.

[00:38:09] Installed a new parking lot to keep improved traffic flow. For HVAC projects, so we had Bel Air Elementary, which that is geothermal wells as well. Coles Elementary, Enterprise, Garfield High School had all new rooftop equipment installed.

[00:38:33] RIP-ON was a full HVAC replacement, and then Woodbridge High School was another with all-new RIP-ON. For energy management and sustainability projects, we have four high schools for LED lighting.

[00:38:49] That's Woodbridge, Garfield, Potomac, and Patriot. And then for solar installations, we have Battlefield High School, Beville Middle School, Gainesville High School, Kilby Elementary, Kyle Wilson Elementary, and Forest Park High School.

[00:39:07] Of those, they are all up and running with the exception of Forest Park, which is scheduled to be up and running by the end of December. And that is it for construction. So, next we'll go over the redistricting policy.

[00:39:25] Our policy had not been updated in quite some time. We felt that it was a little bit outdated. So, we were able to hire a consultant, National Demographics Corporation, and they helped lead the charge going through these stakeholder engagement sessions, town hall meetings, and engaging with our school-based staff and school board members.

[00:39:45] So we started out with two engagement sessions in town hall-style formats, and we had pretty good turnouts at both. And then we went through nine stakeholder engagement sessions with the board and different counterparts within UWCS. And they all gave input of what they would like to see in a policy and regulation.

[00:40:03] We also had an online survey for all community members to give input back to us on what they would like to see in the regulation and policy as well. As well with these engagement sessions, NDC went through 82 academic resources and case studies during that time to see what best practices could be to be put forth in these policies and grants.

[00:40:25] So what we learned from this process is full transparency is very important through the boundary process. Because families are being affected, they're being moved in this process, so being full transparent from the very start is very important. It's important to have all stakeholders engaged up front, make sure everybody's input is heard from the very get-go, and acknowledging the feedback we are hearing from either constituents and people and families and that we're hearing from our counterparts.

[00:40:58] So in the past, we had a committee structure at the elementary and middle school level, and at that, you're picking certain members for a committee. so instead of the committee now we're going to parent groups so anybody can be involved in these parent groups so we're not limiting just to 10 members of the committee we can have multiple parent groups and any parent who wants to be involved in the process has the ability to now be involved and everybody's voice can now be heard fully and we have multiple options for input so the summary of recommendations we now have the same process for elementary middle and

[00:41:35] high school. Before, as I said, elementary and middle school were committee-based, and high school was more of a scoping meeting, and then we had meetings to figure out what the process was going to be. So now all three levels are the same. We're going to have better outreach efforts to underrepresented families. We're going to utilize our parent liaisons at schools to help reach these underrepresented families to make sure their voices are actually being heard through this process and we don't want them to be blindsided by any of these changes. And another big portion was any review or any change from the school board after our public hearing we will go back out for

[00:42:14] another public hearing if these planning units were not affected previously under any other boundary plan or proposal. So this would allow everybody to have input and feedback given to our team before it gets voted on by the school board. And lastly, the updates about the criteria. Our goal is to optimize capacity at our school and utilize our schools to the fullest extent. And that's our number one criteria to be used. But also stability of school assignments, making sure students are not being moved multiple times within their durations of schooling. Looking at

[00:42:52] geographic progression from elementary to middle school to high school to make sure these students are sticking together, local geography with transportation, how can we best help our transportation team limit the amount of buses we might need, making sure everything is efficient with our transportation department, and lastly, student demographics.

[00:43:12] So the new process is basically three different scales, and the first one is 15 students or fewer, and this is a small adjustment. This is possibly a new residence development or something along those lines.

[00:43:28] It's a notification period of a four-week window, and we communicate to the schools and the communities as part of the regular parent communications. Next, we have a small change, which is between 15 and 250 students, or 15% of the effective school average daily membership.

[00:43:45] As we know, we do have smaller schools, so we have that 15% in there, because 250 students at a Dale City Elementary would be about 75% of that school. And then our standard process, which is when normally a new construction of a school would happen, it's 250 or more current students, and we'll have at least one town hall, one parent focus group, outreach to our traditionally underrepresented families, and a method for online public comment.

[00:44:12] Our team, our goal, is to always have a website for every boundary change, no matter what scale it is, 15 or fewer, the small change, or the standard process, and always have a feedback form where we can hear and gather this information to share with our board so we're being fully transparent through this whole process. Lastly, we have a flow chart of the process. It's kind of high level, but it kind of gives you the different options of how we can go and maneuver through based off the different processes. Next, we have our student enrollment trends, and this is as of

[00:44:52] September 30th of this year. We'll start by just looking at the Northern Virginia area as a whole. We are seeing, for the first time in 2020, we actually saw a decline in the Northern Virginia population, which that was the first time in history.

[00:45:10] We are seeing domestic migration still occurring in Northern Virginia, and we are seeing still upticks in international migration in Northern Virginia. Our birth rates are steadily declining. This year was the lowest year in history, with roughly 5,750 births in Prince William County, and that is from the Virginia Department of Health.

[00:45:33] So with that being said, with this domestic migration out of Prince William County, the declining birth rates, we are projecting a decrease in student enrollment in Prince William County. We have our population pyramid next.

[00:45:49] You can see it goes from kindergarten to 12th grade. It is very top-heavy for Prince William County public schools. Currently, our 12th grade cohort has 7,244 students. incoming kindergarten class this year was 5,595. That's 1,700 students delta from our 12th grade cohort to our kindergarten cohort. So as they progress we're knocking out these bigger cohorts which is declining our student enrollment growth. Next is our new residential construction. I will

[00:46:27] point out that our residential construction does not include age-restricted units so it could be a bit different than what you guys have over here in the county. This year we went from a top-down approach to a bottom-up approach. We're letting what the build rates are for these developments dictate how many units will be constructed in the future. So depending on a single-family detached, single-family attached, or multi-family attached unit, we have build rates for each of those at the development level. And if they do not have historical build rates, we are using a county-wide

[00:47:03] average of a build rate to implement for that for that new residential construction you can see in years 2028 and 2029 we have a big increase in units being built a lot of these are rezoning submitted right now which they're not in the pipeline to be built but can be built in the future four to five years down the road so that's where we're seeing the increase to 1800 and then close to 3,000 units being built in year five. Our next slide is our student enrollment. It's our

[00:47:39] historical and projected. Through our five-year window, we are projected declining enrollment. Next year, we're looking at roughly a 1,200 student decline in K through 12 enrollments. Through the four-year window, we are seeing a decline, and then in the fifth year, we are seeing a slight uptick. These are because these children are not yet born, so these are a projection birth rate. We actually collaborate with the county demographer here and we use his projection number for our fifth year and he currently has a pre-pandemic and a post-pandemic model where he

[00:48:16] uses an average and we take that average and we use that for our birth to kindergarten ratio for the fifth year and that's where we're seeing that little slight uptick but it's not a big uptick in year five. Next is the breakdown by elementary, middle, and high school. You can see for elementary and middle school it's a five-year projection and for high school it's a seven-year projection. The seven-year is because these students are already in our system and we're able to cohort survive them in our system. You can see elementary schools the four years we have

[00:48:54] a decline and then we have a slight uptick in year five and that is based off the first that are a little bit higher than we are having actually in Prince William County. At the high school level, we're seeing a decline of about roughly 800 students. With middle school, we're seeing a bigger decline, and that's because these elementary cohorts that are progressing through, we are really seeing these smaller cohorts going to affect the middle school level as they start progressing through the system. And lastly, we have our other enrollment. This includes our school-based

[00:49:27] pre-K, Thomas Jefferson, Pace West, Independence Nontraditional School, and we're seeing stagnant enrollment in this area last year we did project a slight increase in this area but after working with a couple other teams and now using verb data to help with our uh preschool projection we're starting to see more stagnant enrollment in the preschool level what questions might you guys have sorry that was a lot of information Actually, I've got a couple of them.

[00:50:03] We've got a slide. We haven't done a build-out analysis in quite some period of time. So how do you come up with this, given that the staff looked at the DAPS schedule just yesterday.

[00:50:25] We came up with 6,000 units DAPS alone, plus several thousand units in the last 18 to 24 months. plus entitled units as yet unconstructed, both by writing and as a result of rezoning.

[00:50:42] How do you factor all of that in without a document that provides sort of a cumulative analysis? So we do work very closely with the county. We work with Frank Hunt and David McGettigan quite closely.

[00:50:58] We have yearly meetings with them or quarterly meetings with them, and our other planner position meets with some of the planning staff over here. And we do have a database that has all the residential development. And we do have units that are outside of new residential development that we do add into our model.

[00:51:18] And basically, our model is taking all this new residential construction and building it out by site development permit, site approval, and rezoning submitted. And through that process, that's how ours is building out these new residential units. I'm actually happy to hear that.

[00:51:35] Can you share some of that information with the Antwerp Office community? Yes. The other thing I would point out, there are a couple of things that are beyond county's control, beyond school board's control, and that's going to be not only construction, but augmentation of the rural units based on what the inflation rate is, what the interest rate is, where that's going to go over time.

[00:52:04] But the one thing I've always had an issue with is the student projection. You sort of have one-size-fits-all townhouses generate X and family will generate Y and then generate Z.

[00:52:20] In Princeville, big Princeville and Canada, we've always sort of done it as a one-size-fits-all type of unit. You've got to oven your fictions at the Pointville Avenue directly. They actually change it geographically based on neighborhood and what trends in that neighborhood are.

[00:52:35] So if you've got a townhouse in Ashburn and a townhouse complex in Perndan or somewhere out on the West End, you get different base factors of student generation based on any other thing.

[00:52:52] Historic trends of, you know, are these starter homes, are these people moving up? Are you guys willing to or can you accommodate that in your model? So this year we actually started something new with our student generation rates. Before, we looked at the county as a whole and built student generation rates.

[00:53:12] This year, we took new residential construction 10 years or less, and those have new generation rates. And then we have generation rates as the whole county. So now we have two different sets of student generation rates. So anything what is 10 years or newer and the county as a whole.

[00:53:29] And that's what we plan on giving developers is these 10 years or newer, what these new residential developments could be producing at single-family detached, single-family detached. And last but not least, I'm assuming that this is back to doing a modeling decline, birth rate, health migrations, Fairfax is seeing, I think we're going to see probably in the next three years, especially in federal government decentralized.

[00:53:58] I'm assuming those are already built into it. And the other part I think we all consider is redistribution of the student population based on certain districts leading out for lack of a better term. Is that also the fact that you're modeling so that you're putting new construction and renovation in areas where the prices likely will occur and where the reduction is likely?

[00:54:22] Yes, we are looking at that and we're looking with our new facility commission assessments to do on what we need to put in different schools. Thank you for this presentation and I want to thank Dr. McDade, you guys have been tremendously open to helping us try to figure out what's going to happen in the Brentsville district, how we're going to support the growth that we have.

[00:54:52] You know, we have within our district 6,000 units proposed and so it is, you know, as I'm looking at your data here, it's a sort of a broad brush countywide. Have you drilled down to more into the different district levels to figure out, you know, where specific growth is happening, where it tends to be a little more concentrated to understand what that's happening within those school zones and then trying to adjust the enrollments and anticipated need for classrooms based on that data?

[00:55:31] Yes, we have. And we did an aging in place study, too, to see how long certain people have been in homes and how west we are seeing where certain parents have been in homes for 20-plus years, and that's where we're seeing a big decline in enrollment numbers out west.

[00:55:47] So we did this aging in place study to see where we could continue to see these declining trends, And that's a new study we're doing every year of the aging in place to see how long these people have been at home, to see where we could be seeing the turnover of where we can see new enrollment and where we might not see any new enrollment phase off, no new residential development for people not selling their homes.

[00:56:09] Because interest rates obviously are playing a big component factor of that too. And then just as I also want to say thank you to the entire school board for seeking to redistrict the bristol crossing bristol corner at thomas farm parcels uh because right now uh no school schools over capacity and they're all zoned to that um so this is certainly going to in the short term in the long term help us mitigate growth in a very concentrated area and so really appreciate your willingness to do that to help be part of the solution to helping us manage that

[00:56:48] growth in a smart way. So thank you for doing that. Supervisor, if I could add, you know, one of the things we're also looking at worst case scenarios, so should, you know, what we traditionally planned off of is what's in the pipeline for approval, but we also know there are developments out there.

[00:57:11] So we're really trying to track those as best we can, because we don't want to be caught by surprise if a lot of developments come online at once. We call it our doomsday scenario, so if these things were to come online all at once, we'll be looking at. So that's a kind of layered approach that we're taking. What are we actually seeing in for approval right now, but what do we also know that's out there in the group and try the best we can to plan in that? And on to that point, the Bend Hill Corridor, which that entire corridor is on to Knoxville School, Princeville High School, Knoxville Elementary and Middle,

[00:57:45] none of those can accommodate, you know, that level of growth, 3,400 units coming online. We are working with planning to create a charrette and try to come up with a somewhat of a small area plan so we'd love to have someone from your office work with us because we know that there's already land already out there for schools but the developers are ready to donate more but that may not be the right answer and so that's why we would love to have you part of that conversation hey don't donate any more space for school because we're not going to build it but how

[00:58:23] are we going? What are the alternatives? And help us look at those numbers over the next decade to try to understand how this all gets, how the students get incorporated, how we manage that growth. Because that's going to be the community's number one question.

[00:58:40] Where are all these kids going to go to school? And so we're going to be wrapping up our meetings in early January and then we're going to push for that charrette and they'll have some public meetings um but we'd love for you guys to be part of that conversation to help us make sure we get it right thank you um i think i saw wall bailey

[00:59:04] i just have one question um i'm sorry 21 rapidly um population the population is

[00:59:30] Yeah, so if you look at the population we're going to do, over the next course of the next couple of years, we're losing cohorts of over 7,000 students.

[01:00:01] We're only bringing in roughly 5,500 students at the kindergarten level. So that and the new residential development is not enough to offset the decline of these incoming cohorts of what we're seeing on the top side. And that's reflected in our attendance.

[01:00:20] Correct. All new residential development is reflected in our projections. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Really excited about the Energy Management and Sustainability Projects on 11.

[01:00:37] Thank you so much for that. I appreciate it. Looking forward to that. I wanted to, that's my comment, but I wanted to ask about on page 24, pre-K, and you mentioned StatNet enrollment.

[01:00:53] Is that due to the birth rate as well, or is that due to lack of service? So, that is due to birth rates forefront. They were actually looking at how the trend line was going, and with birth rates starting to stale out and decline more, we're not seeing need for as many, I guess, the enrollment numbers for pre-K, particularly in a while.

[01:01:24] It's interesting, you know, in terms of birth rate, As you said, in terms of funds, you never think of it that way. You think of love and service. So I appreciate that information. And that's all. Thank you. Ms. Williams. Thank you. I think it would be helpful just to mention that we will be discussing our new CIP in January, specific to Brentville District and their own upcoming renovations and things of that nature as well as all the districts.

[01:01:52] Just putting that out there in case any of the VOT members would want to tune in in January to see where upcoming plans are as well as we'll still have a discussion on the boundaries that haven't been presented to us yet so i think that may be helpful for anybody who's watching this is our current data but there's more to come in june mr jesse mrs frank yeah just two things one for the first presentation i want to also give you credit for working with woodbridge high school and the orchestra and the facility to house the instruments.

[01:02:30] And up until this year, their instruments were basically out in the open most of the time. And you guys took care of that. You also increased the orchestra rehearsal room big enough. And we had 130-plus kids the other day in the orchestra for a presentation, which showed that it was needed and appreciated.

[01:02:53] to this for the enrollment. Mike and me and I moved in my home in December of 94, which is going to be 30 years, I guess, now. And you know what? We had a bunch of kindergartens and very few school kids there.

[01:03:12] And as they matriculated, there were very few people taking the elementary school bussies. But you know what now? Those kids are here back because those homes were sold. Some of them were sold. People started having kids.

[01:03:28] and now we have a whole bunch of kids on the elementary books. So not only, I think, Mr. Rear pointed out, you've got to look at the growth of a community and what happens in that community because the community went from a lot of kids to no elementary kids and now back to a bunch of elementary kids.

[01:03:50] Thank you. Ms. Franklin and then Mr. Bodie. Yeah, going back to Jen Wall's question about 21, So just a clarity, for 2029, you know, you make a note here that those are currently projections based on the rezoning.

[01:04:10] And basically, residential units have gone through the process that may or may not fully materialized. Correct. Okay, yeah, and I think that's important in terms of answering her question because that 2,999 may or may not be materialized.

[01:04:26] Correct, because some of the ones that are going through the rezoning submitted process may never get into that site. development permit stage where they're actually building homes but it's something if it's in the pipeline now we do in our five-year window or seven-year window here we are projecting those units yep just wanted to make sure that we were clear on that and then also um as mr jesse noted in the um the first portion of the presentation i just want to highlight the bridge elementary school that's coming online um i remember when i first got elected one of the first phone calls was from Lori saying, we need an elementary school.

[01:05:00] And I said, okay, great. All right, so how do we do that? And we got to moving and working with the developers to get that going. And now it's being realized. We've cleaned up that area. Crime has been reduced tremendously. And we're looking forward to having that come online.

[01:05:17] And so I just want to thank you all for the work that you've done. I look at it as my job to revitalize Rob one. It's her job to revitalize and renovate the schools. And that all has to work together. Mr. Bode. Thank you. A couple comments and a couple questions.

[01:05:33] To go back to the solar conversation, I know that when we had our joint meeting with the legislative, we hammered homework, which was important. I reported this out to chat. We had our last joint environmental task force meeting last week. But Delegate Thomas said that he heard us a lot in clear.

[01:05:49] He'll be pushing hard, getting with his colleagues to really address that. Part of the issue, he said, was actually contractual thing with Dominion, which is why there's a difference between how Novec does a Dominion. But that will take not just the General Assembly, but the SEC and some other folks. But he said they're really, they heard it obviously not only from us, but from school divisions around North Virginia, especially all the ones in the Dominion Territory.

[01:06:10] So I wanted to convey that, that I had a conversation. He heard it loud and crazy, pushing this coming year. Two, I noticed in somebody's, going along with the conversation we had earlier, sort of honing in and sharpening our pencils around how we're looking at growth.

[01:06:28] I know we don't really always survey folks, or we don't have a way of really canvassing them when they're moving out why they're doing it, or to the point, asking folks why they're not having children. But frankly, anecdotally, we know, based on how you're doing this all day, you've stopped everything else.

[01:06:50] That said, you know, one thing I hear anecdotally from my constitution, I'm sure it's heard around the table, is cost of living and affordability of housing. I know some constitution in my district that they currently live with their parents.

[01:07:08] They're all old enough to have their own children, but because they can't find a place to live that can accommodate more children, they're stuck. And so what happens is either they stay that way and stuff or they eventually move farther out into Stafford, Focker, Warrington, whatever you want to say.

[01:07:24] And so I'm also curious to say, as our board of supervisors gets a handle on this affordable housing issue, how that might over time affect some of your numbers as folks are then able to finally find their starter home and finally have children, if that was part of the reason why you're not seeing that.

[01:07:40] So I just wanted to offer that. A couple of questions, and it goes back to the redistricting process. Outreach is great, and we never want to hear anyone in the community, even though they do it anyway, say, I didn't know this was happening, and how dare you, even though you guys blasted it in the heavens and everything like that.

[01:08:02] But in terms of engaging especially the non-English-speaking communities, and frankly the folks that they may, for whatever reason or another, are not as tuned in as our mainstream families, how, you've talked about reach-ups, but how you, what kind of strategies are you guys doing to reach-ups?

[01:08:23] So, currently, we use our translation department quite exclusively. Our form, what we send out to these communities, are translated in every language that we provide with Princeton County Public Schools. So, the form has done that. Each communication we send out to the families is translated in their at-home language that they have chosen and picked from.

[01:08:45] Through all of our virtual meetings, we have the options for interpreters. And through all those meetings, if they select to have an interpreter, we will make sure we have that interpreter there for them. No matter if it's Farsi, Spanish, French, sign language, we will do our due diligence to have that interpreter there.

[01:09:04] So we're making sure that we're getting our point across in what is going on through these processes. I'd like to go back to redistricting because I'm glad you guys have a new process. but it's a lot more open and transparent but to me commiserate to that is a an issue that we have currently which is we have certain schools that have a large over capacity problem other schools that are frankly very under capacity and there's obviously i know there's a lot of reasons that play into that but there's also the fact that there's just perception that there are some schools that have more and have less have certain programs and don't so this is more of a global question how

[01:09:42] are you all sort of tackling that issue because to me you can redistrict but then if there's still schools that have certain things that cause people want to go to them over time you're going to be just running into the same problem you know three four or five years down the road are you are you so it sounds like you're talking about programmatic offerings right so we've done a lot to revamp our specialty programming application process which is now mostly driven by interest um and what has happened is there's sometimes community interest that kind of drove why a program was placed in the school, right? And then what ends up happening is the program there is a great program but that's not what, you know, family

[01:10:22] in that particular school may be interested in. And so now, you know, we've incorporated that interest survey piece so that any new programs coming online, especially programming coming online within the school, is driven based on need spanning across uh the school system equitable equitable access you know so now we have we did we only had a pre-gov program on the west end of the county now we have one on the east of the county so that's that's just making sure that um all students have access but then also making sure that any programs that go into schools is based on what the families and the students

[01:10:58] that are attending or projected to attend that school are actually interested in so not making in the school ID when, you know, they may want by the performing arts. So those are the kinds of decisions that now are driving how we're placing programs at school and it's not just being, you know, put a program somewhere because it's a nice program and we want it, but making sure that it's driven by student interests and so that will attract more students.

[01:11:23] And I appreciate that because to go back to something that Supervisor Gordy said earlier, you know, we're trying to grapple around all these issues combined, right? especially where are these kids going to go to school. So for us, we're trying to accommodate growth, trying to partner with you all to have a more robust offering in terms of new schools, renovations.

[01:11:41] We've got to be doing an excellent job, especially in our older schools and what have you. To me, you're still shooting ourselves in the foot. If we do all that, but then for whatever reason, kids are then still flocking to other schools because then we get over the head and why are you approving all these developments? Our schools in X, Y, and Z are 120%, 150%, all these other things.

[01:11:57] So it really helps us in the long run to be looking at that. So thank you. Ms. Williams. So I'm just going to reiterate again, tuning in in January, so that you get a better, more drill-down picture. We will be talking about program capacity as well as building capacity, so you'll be able to see a little bit more about those numbers.

[01:12:16] And then I just want to reiterate what our superintendent said since she's been here. We really have dedicated a lot of time and energy and effort into equitable programming. I am a family that's done specialty programs twice now, and it has been extremely beneficial to my own family.

[01:12:36] As you know, my son was culinary outside of our district. He was self-employed back in his county, and I have a youngster now who's doing IV. So there is a need because it highlights options for our students. I think that it would be great if we could work together to continue to spread the word about how equitable our buildings are.

[01:12:58] There really is not that much difference in terms of what is inside of a building. All of the buildings have the same literacy materials and the same sort of technology. What's different is maybe the specialty program equipment might set them apart. but i think that is something that we continue to battle is the public's perception of the difference between a freshly built building and an older school and with all the time and effort and energy tax pay dollars that we are putting into the school division to ensure that our older buildings are revitalized and are all everyone has the same thing i think that is the best way

[01:13:36] to talk about the situation so that we can help dispel some of the older rumors or continuing incorrect perceptions that our community does have because our schools if you look around the state you know our schools may look old to us but if you travel outside they look really really good and we do spend a lot of time and effort um our new facility quality index condition assessment which i know i have i held it on for years because we had a five-year ten-year cycle now we look at at need um which is again something is a continuous process improvement

[01:14:12] that we're doing and again i just encourage anybody who's interested to watch our january meetings we do go into greater detail and and i think that's really what we should be striving for because we know that who's the right people move here um we employ so many people and to continue to speak positively and to dispel some of those older notions i think would be a good direction to go but if you're looking for more information i think january from our meeting will really help bring up the fire of that. Okay. I'll just wrap up by pointing out, you know, I think the

[01:14:45] enrollment presentation is really important for all of you. I think this is a serious matter for the county long term. I think it's not maybe the most serious matter as far as what we're looking at from the school division standpoint. You know, we're a community that's been used to growing.

[01:15:05] I'm not sure that's going to continue. It may, may not. But based on our numbers, certainly not school division for the next few years we don't want to be the division who's going to start consolidating schools or closing schools so we have to be very careful on this work we're happy to hear from each of you on your concerns on this matter but you know to your point you know there are parts of the county growing potomac friendsville growing districts but other districts are phasing out so we're going to fire some rebalancing of schools over time services i will tease a little bit just because dr mcdade brought up and just waiting to you know the cip coming up and it's

[01:15:42] likely to be approved but there'll be a lot of maintenance going into the auditoriums and many other schools in this division and i think that you know that's to the point that we have a great fine and performing arts program at colgan it has yet to win it's been nominated for a lot of awards for what we call the caffies but woodbridge and osborne park gainesville have one they have in battlefield have historically great theater programs we're going to put some more efforts into that. We have a new person who's in charge of our, Dr. McDade hired a great new person in charge of our arts. He's already won some awards, I think today or yesterday.

[01:16:14] So, just so you all know, we're really committed to this work at all program levels, whether it's CTE, and you know, under Dr. McDade's leadership, and you know, I'll just point out again she was region four superintendent a year, and it wasn't by accident. We're doing a lot of good work, and we are trying to listen to everything you're all saying. Madam Chair calls me about different things and concerns.

[01:16:34] I do want to make sure these presentations today were based on what Chair Jefferson and I thought you all would want to hear. If there's more you want to hear, please reach out and talk to us. All right. Thank you. You have one question, yes, and then you know what time it is.

[01:16:51] Oh, okay, never mind. I can do it offline. Okay. So, obviously, the Board of County Supervisors, we have to adjourn. Let's go. We should do adjourn. Second. Supervisor, you're getting a little, I don't know, losing your cuts. All right. All in favor?

[01:17:06] All right, all right, all right, all right. I'm good enough to say every day. I'm good enough to say every day. That's all right, all right. I'll see you.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Coraggio Consulting · aguyonx.com